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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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If storms continue to miss us like this current one, I wont be on here too long. Can't take another year like last year. Guess it's good this one isn't delivering snow because it would be tough to study for finals.

there will be plenty of storms, this is just the first widespread one. And its not a guarentee it misses SEMI either. If any year was due to be a below normal year, it was last year, coming off of the record snowy 2007-08 + 2008-09. But last years snowy feb allowed the winter to end as average. But this year, if la nina holds true to form, I expect an above average snow year.

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Ok, everyone choose which track they want?

Except this storm isn't even close to the criteria set by that research paper wrt starting location. This wave is coming onshore in Washington and Oregon, not exactly a classic clipper track. Nor will it quite be as moisture starved as a normal clipper.

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Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels.

I'm still checking it out. It definitely looks farther south though. At 72 hours, the 850 mb low is in eastern KY whereas the 12z run had it in southern Ohio. Also appears to be a somewhat weaker system overall.

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I'm still checking it out. It definitely looks farther south though. At 72 hours, the 850 mb low is in eastern KY whereas the 12z run had it in southern Ohio. Also appears to be a somewhat weaker system overall.

2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications.

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2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications.

Look at the 500mb,850 at 66hr, just does not match..

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2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications.

I guess it does seem weird. Would seem like there would be a more expansive band of snow on the north side. Maybe the NAM is out to lunch as far as that goes.

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I guess it does seem weird. Would seem like there would be a more expansive band of snow on the north side. Maybe the NAM is out to lunch as far as that goes.

Probably the Nam being the Nam, however I think the bigger issue is whatever that thing over the Ocean is.

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There's a critical detail I fear many of you are missing. This isn't the PJ acting alone, but rather a coupled jet (shared energy area between the PJ and STJ). Therefore, it's not unusual to have variable jet forcing (and thus the behavior you're seeing here). The muddled appearance of the 850 low from 60-72 hours is being caused by the "relocation" of the 850 low to the more favorable location (under the left exit region of the coupled jet -- on the polar side). For the hobbyists in the thread, it's important to think of a pressure system as something that is being continuously reconstituted as it moves along, NOT like an object in a stream. Furthermore, precip in a clipper-type system is increasingly driven by upper dynamics (DPVA and deformation) and less by frontogenetical forcing as it goes through its life cycle, so it's important to lean a little more on the mid and upper level charts in a situation like this.

Having said that, I think the NAM's QPF field is fairly realistic on the 00z run, compared to the previous runs, and shows the lake enhancement potential of this system pretty well.

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There's a critical detail I fear many of you are missing. This isn't the PJ acting alone, but rather a coupled jet (shared energy area between the PJ and STJ). Therefore, it's not unusual to have variable jet forcing (and thus the behavior you're seeing here). The muddled appearance of the 850 low from 60-72 hours is being caused by the "relocation" of the 850 low to the more favorable location (under the left exit region of the coupled jet -- on the polar side). For the hobbyists in the thread, it's important to think of a pressure system as something that is being continuously reconstituted as it moves along, NOT like an object in a stream. Furthermore, precip in a clipper-type system is increasingly driven by upper dynamics (DPVA and deformation) and less by frontogenetical forcing as it goes through its life cycle, so it's important to lean a little more on the mid and upper level charts in a situation like this.

Having said that, I think the NAM's QPF field is fairly realistic on the 00z run, compared to the previous runs, and shows the lake enhancement potential of this system pretty well.

Yeah, I am going to definitely be blogging about this and dynamics involved in low amplitude waves of the clipper type, how the incipient low-level cyclogenesis in the plains is initiated by the left front indirect thermal jet circulation with the first low level convergent response strongly being frontogenetic which then transitions to more synoptic forcing as the system matures. There is definitely nothing weird going on here, even the SREF mean plots are flip-flopping each run, as expected.

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IMHO...the NAM has little to no utility beyond 48 hours. I know many mets who would disagree. Regardless, on to the GFS, Euro, GEM, and ensembles...

Yeah I think 48 hours is where I pay my most attention to the NAM before that its pretty pictures with a weather theme

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