Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Clipper tracks? If they are you can see most of them do move more west to east and not many track like this current one will Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We have no seen something like this in ssooooo LONGGG What a great storm that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That storm occured mostly at night. Dropped 14 inches here in macomb county. It came from the southwest. The clipper that dropped 8-12 in most of michigan happened my senior year in high school. (2005) what high school? My parents live in Macomb and i graduated from LCN in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like i'll get a few inches of snow from this although that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 FWIW... 21Z 60hr sref mean showing more qpf than the previous 15Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like I'm getting snow unless Mt. Saukville can ward it off somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like I'm getting snow unless Mt. Saukville can ward it off somehow. upsloping winds off the lake = 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If storms continue to miss us like this current one, I wont be on here too long. Can't take another year like last year. Guess it's good this one isn't delivering snow because it would be tough to study for finals. there will be plenty of storms, this is just the first widespread one. And its not a guarentee it misses SEMI either. If any year was due to be a below normal year, it was last year, coming off of the record snowy 2007-08 + 2008-09. But last years snowy feb allowed the winter to end as average. But this year, if la nina holds true to form, I expect an above average snow year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z NAM looks very similar so far but only out to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok, everyone choose which track they want? Except this storm isn't even close to the criteria set by that research paper wrt starting location. This wave is coming onshore in Washington and Oregon, not exactly a classic clipper track. Nor will it quite be as moisture starved as a normal clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z NAM looks very similar so far but only out to 36 hours. Through 60 it is slower to develop precip eastward through IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This run is going south I think...at least as it gets farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM coming back to earth. Pretty large differences at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This run is going south I think...at least as it gets farther east. Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. yep, this model is broken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. the difference at 850 between 0z and 12z/18z are pretty large, a much weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. I'm still checking it out. It definitely looks farther south though. At 72 hours, the 850 mb low is in eastern KY whereas the 12z run had it in southern Ohio. Also appears to be a somewhat weaker system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. Agree, even the 18z was showing the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm still checking it out. It definitely looks farther south though. At 72 hours, the 850 mb low is in eastern KY whereas the 12z run had it in southern Ohio. Also appears to be a somewhat weaker system overall. Ya it is for sure a weaker and further south system on this run, lets see what the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm still checking it out. It definitely looks farther south though. At 72 hours, the 850 mb low is in eastern KY whereas the 12z run had it in southern Ohio. Also appears to be a somewhat weaker system overall. 2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications. Look at the 500mb,850 at 66hr, just does not match.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 good 'ole nam I'll have to check analogs for the last time a clipper dove from minnesota to the NC coast, dryslotting MI and OH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications. I guess it does seem weird. Would seem like there would be a more expansive band of snow on the north side. Maybe the NAM is out to lunch as far as that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I guess it does seem weird. Would seem like there would be a more expansive band of snow on the north side. Maybe the NAM is out to lunch as far as that goes. Probably the Nam being the Nam, however I think the bigger issue is whatever that thing over the Ocean is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The NAM has been all over the place with this system it seems. It went from giving us 0.80" to about 0.30" the last two runs lol. The GFS has been wavering around too. For the most part the GEM and Euro have remained fairly stable for the last few days, so I'm gonna ride those till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 There's a critical detail I fear many of you are missing. This isn't the PJ acting alone, but rather a coupled jet (shared energy area between the PJ and STJ). Therefore, it's not unusual to have variable jet forcing (and thus the behavior you're seeing here). The muddled appearance of the 850 low from 60-72 hours is being caused by the "relocation" of the 850 low to the more favorable location (under the left exit region of the coupled jet -- on the polar side). For the hobbyists in the thread, it's important to think of a pressure system as something that is being continuously reconstituted as it moves along, NOT like an object in a stream. Furthermore, precip in a clipper-type system is increasingly driven by upper dynamics (DPVA and deformation) and less by frontogenetical forcing as it goes through its life cycle, so it's important to lean a little more on the mid and upper level charts in a situation like this. Having said that, I think the NAM's QPF field is fairly realistic on the 00z run, compared to the previous runs, and shows the lake enhancement potential of this system pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IMHO...the NAM has little to no utility beyond 48 hours. I know many mets who would disagree. Regardless, on to the GFS, Euro, GEM, and ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 There's a critical detail I fear many of you are missing. This isn't the PJ acting alone, but rather a coupled jet (shared energy area between the PJ and STJ). Therefore, it's not unusual to have variable jet forcing (and thus the behavior you're seeing here). The muddled appearance of the 850 low from 60-72 hours is being caused by the "relocation" of the 850 low to the more favorable location (under the left exit region of the coupled jet -- on the polar side). For the hobbyists in the thread, it's important to think of a pressure system as something that is being continuously reconstituted as it moves along, NOT like an object in a stream. Furthermore, precip in a clipper-type system is increasingly driven by upper dynamics (DPVA and deformation) and less by frontogenetical forcing as it goes through its life cycle, so it's important to lean a little more on the mid and upper level charts in a situation like this. Having said that, I think the NAM's QPF field is fairly realistic on the 00z run, compared to the previous runs, and shows the lake enhancement potential of this system pretty well. Yeah, I am going to definitely be blogging about this and dynamics involved in low amplitude waves of the clipper type, how the incipient low-level cyclogenesis in the plains is initiated by the left front indirect thermal jet circulation with the first low level convergent response strongly being frontogenetic which then transitions to more synoptic forcing as the system matures. There is definitely nothing weird going on here, even the SREF mean plots are flip-flopping each run, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IMHO...the NAM has little to no utility beyond 48 hours. I know many mets who would disagree. Regardless, on to the GFS, Euro, GEM, and ensembles... Yeah I think 48 hours is where I pay my most attention to the NAM before that its pretty pictures with a weather theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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