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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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More snow in his backyard, fwiw he's from Michigan.

Well I know I certainly hope it comes north enough to give southern MI accumulating snow Saturday. This thing has been on the models for over a week now, giving snow as far north as the U.P. and as far south as KY. In the old days, I wouldnt mind this position at all, as the north trend was always inevitable, no matter what the setup. But these days, the models are just so horrible I dont even know if they have a bias we can figure out.

I'll tell you one thing, Ill be very ticked if there is no snowcover here but there is a nice cover to the south/west as we look to be in the cold for a while. I certainly am not trying to imply anyone doesnt deserve snow, especially as we're all friends on the boards. But many of the midwest posts were getting so pessimistic and downright midatlantic-like a few days ago, living/dying with each model run and saying stuff like "no signs of snow thru mid-Dec", "cold and dry hell throughout the next 2 weeks" etc etc, and I was the one repeatedly saying things like the models change every 6 hours, and reassuring everyone we go through this every year at this time and winter will come, etc etc. So yes, it will be ironic and SUCK if there is bare ground here and snowcover all over the place so relatively close. Of course I know that even if this is a complete miss for us, our snow will be coming soon, but the last snowstorm was Feb 26th and the last time the ground had 1"+ snowcover was March 7th. Im getting quite impatient. Its Michigan. Its December. Its time!

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I'll field this one, 3 reasons why I would think it will be further north, 1 being models handling of clippers at this range to dig them too far south, yes I know its a hybrid so to speak but the origin of the energy is for a majority northern stream. Secondly as noted by you Hoosier the track of the 850/700mb lows are further north and don't match the QPF maps, its dangerous to just go by QPF maps knowing the lows are north. The 3rd and more important reason is that the block to the northeast is being forecasted too strong in my opinion, If it ends up being weaker which I would expect then you'd expect the clipper to track further north.

fwiw some of the 18z GFS ensembles came north. Even in now-time, oftentimes the models are too far south, however if this thing has not come north enough to give us snow by tomorrow nights 00z runs, then Ill cut losses and wait for the next one.

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fwiw some of the 18z GFS ensembles came north. Even in now-time, oftentimes the models are too far south, however if this thing has not come north enough to give us snow by tomorrow nights 00z runs, then Ill cut losses and wait for the next one.

Yes Josh, though I wouldn't want the misfits posse (18z ensembles) to be the first to show a trend, I'd be much more comfortable with the Euro or GGEM showing it.

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Yes Josh, though I wouldn't want the misfits posse (18z ensembles) to be the first to show a trend, I'd be much more comfortable with the Euro or GGEM showing it.

One thing that is good, is right on cue for the first day of met winter, a clipper is in the offing. DTX expects a higher frequency of clippers than normal this winter, and since the tracks all vary, pretty much everyone (MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, IN, OH, MI, KY, TN, PA) should see several good clippers once all is said and done.

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I had sleet which was a blessing since I was supposed to get ice.

Oh, that one. I remember now. Had some freezing rain in the early hours but it was pouring with marginal temps and had trouble building up significant accretion.

Back to the regularly scheduled program, the 18z GFS drops a big bag of you know what on the IA/MN border.

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif

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Oh, that one. I remember now. Had some freezing rain in the early hours but it was pouring with marginal temps and had trouble building up significant accretion.

Back to the regularly scheduled program, the 18z GFS drops a big bag of you know what on the IA/MN border.

3-4" would work for me...I'm not too greedy. snowing3.gif

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December 19, 2008 was a hybrid clipper I believe. DTX CWA did very well according to this: http://www.crh.noaa....now200812191940

That storm occured mostly at night. Dropped 14 inches here in macomb county. It came from the southwest. The clipper that dropped 8-12 in most of michigan happened my senior year in high school. (2005)

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