A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Dec 15-17, 2007 tracked along the IN/OH border, with Gulf origins. I remember it quite well...we got 10.5" here. How does 4-5" while Illinois beats down Gonzaga sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 How does 4-5" while Illinois beats down Gonzaga sound I like the beatdown of Gonzaga part...not sure of the 4-5" down here part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 More snow in his backyard, fwiw he's from Michigan. Well I know I certainly hope it comes north enough to give southern MI accumulating snow Saturday. This thing has been on the models for over a week now, giving snow as far north as the U.P. and as far south as KY. In the old days, I wouldnt mind this position at all, as the north trend was always inevitable, no matter what the setup. But these days, the models are just so horrible I dont even know if they have a bias we can figure out. I'll tell you one thing, Ill be very ticked if there is no snowcover here but there is a nice cover to the south/west as we look to be in the cold for a while. I certainly am not trying to imply anyone doesnt deserve snow, especially as we're all friends on the boards. But many of the midwest posts were getting so pessimistic and downright midatlantic-like a few days ago, living/dying with each model run and saying stuff like "no signs of snow thru mid-Dec", "cold and dry hell throughout the next 2 weeks" etc etc, and I was the one repeatedly saying things like the models change every 6 hours, and reassuring everyone we go through this every year at this time and winter will come, etc etc. So yes, it will be ironic and SUCK if there is bare ground here and snowcover all over the place so relatively close. Of course I know that even if this is a complete miss for us, our snow will be coming soon, but the last snowstorm was Feb 26th and the last time the ground had 1"+ snowcover was March 7th. Im getting quite impatient. Its Michigan. Its December. Its time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Dec 15-17, 2007 tracked along the IN/OH border, from Gulf origins. I remember it quite well...we got 10.5" here. Do you know where I can get a map of the track? For some reason I think that was a Texas Low. It was. Link below http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/16-17Dec2007/h8_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Do you know where I can get a map of the track? For some reason I think that was a Texas Low. I'd look through that storm thread at Eastern, but well, you know. Let me see what I can dig up...you might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'd look through that storm thread at Eastern, but well, you know. Let me see what I can dig up...you might be right. Check my edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll field this one, 3 reasons why I would think it will be further north, 1 being models handling of clippers at this range to dig them too far south, yes I know its a hybrid so to speak but the origin of the energy is for a majority northern stream. Secondly as noted by you Hoosier the track of the 850/700mb lows are further north and don't match the QPF maps, its dangerous to just go by QPF maps knowing the lows are north. The 3rd and more important reason is that the block to the northeast is being forecasted too strong in my opinion, If it ends up being weaker which I would expect then you'd expect the clipper to track further north. fwiw some of the 18z GFS ensembles came north. Even in now-time, oftentimes the models are too far south, however if this thing has not come north enough to give us snow by tomorrow nights 00z runs, then Ill cut losses and wait for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 fwiw some of the 18z GFS ensembles came north. Even in now-time, oftentimes the models are too far south, however if this thing has not come north enough to give us snow by tomorrow nights 00z runs, then Ill cut losses and wait for the next one. Yes Josh, though I wouldn't want the misfits posse (18z ensembles) to be the first to show a trend, I'd be much more comfortable with the Euro or GGEM showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Check my edit Isn't that link you posted the 850 low track? I found this write-up that has a low originating in southeast TX (page 4). http://nws.met.psu.e...7/16Dec2007.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Do you know where I can get a map of the track? For some reason I think that was a Texas Low. It was. Link below http://www.erh.noaa....007/h8_loop.gif Yep http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/0712/07121600.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok so we can rule out the Dec 15th 07 storm as a clipper, what one are we all thinking about then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Dec 15-17, 2007 tracked along the IN/OH border, from Gulf origins. I remember it quite well...we got 10.5" here. Yes, the "you went to bed" storm. I only vaguely recall that 08-09 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yes Josh, though I wouldn't want the misfits posse (18z ensembles) to be the first to show a trend, I'd be much more comfortable with the Euro or GGEM showing it. One thing that is good, is right on cue for the first day of met winter, a clipper is in the offing. DTX expects a higher frequency of clippers than normal this winter, and since the tracks all vary, pretty much everyone (MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, IN, OH, MI, KY, TN, PA) should see several good clippers once all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I like the beatdown of Gonzaga part...not sure of the 4-5" down here part. my best snows came during the MSU and Wisconsin wins last winter, now we have another threat during the Gonzaga game, coincidence i think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok so we can rule out the Dec 15th 07 storm as a clipper, what one are we all thinking about then? January 22, 2005 perhaps? It gave DTW 12.2", and a HUGE area had 6-12". And yes, it was technically a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 January 22, 2005 perhaps? It gave DTW 12.2", and a HUGE area had 6-12". And yes, it was technically a clipper. That one had amazing ratios though and temps I believe in the teens 17 for a high 9 for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok so we can rule out the Dec 15th 07 storm as a clipper, what one are we all thinking about then? December 19, 2008 was a hybrid clipper I believe. DTX CWA did very well according to this: http://www.crh.noaa....now200812191940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 December 19, 2008 was a hybrid clipper I believe. DTX CWA did very well according to this: http://www.crh.noaa....now200812191940 This might be the one, that was a very very nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 December 19, 2008 was a hybrid clipper I believe. DTX CWA did very well according to this: http://www.crh.noaa....now200812191940 This might be the one, that was a very very nice storm. I had sleet which was a blessing since I was supposed to get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I had sleet which was a blessing since I was supposed to get ice. Oh, that one. I remember now. Had some freezing rain in the early hours but it was pouring with marginal temps and had trouble building up significant accretion. Back to the regularly scheduled program, the 18z GFS drops a big bag of you know what on the IA/MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Oh, that one. I remember now. Had some freezing rain in the early hours but it was pouring with marginal temps and had trouble building up significant accretion. Back to the regularly scheduled program, the 18z GFS drops a big bag of you know what on the IA/MN border. 3-4" would work for me...I'm not too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 December 19, 2008 was a hybrid clipper I believe. DTX CWA did very well according to this: http://www.crh.noaa....now200812191940 That storm occured mostly at night. Dropped 14 inches here in macomb county. It came from the southwest. The clipper that dropped 8-12 in most of michigan happened my senior year in high school. (2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That storm occured mostly at night. Dropped 14 inches here in macomb county. It came from the southwest. The clipper that dropped 8-12 in most of michigan happened my senior year in high school. (2005) Stevoo, good to see u on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Stevoo, good to see u on here If storms continue to miss us like this current one, I wont be on here too long. Can't take another year like last year. Guess it's good this one isn't delivering snow because it would be tough to study for finals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok, everyone choose which track they want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If storms continue to miss us like this current one, I wont be on here too long. Can't take another year like last year. Guess it's good this one isn't delivering snow because it would be tough to study for finals. LOL, you are such a SnowGreek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok, everyone choose which track they want? Clipper tracks? If they are you can see most of them do move more west to east and not many track like this current one will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 LOL, you are such a SnowGreek LOL would be fitting if I was greek but I am Italian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Clipper tracks? If they are you can see most of them do move more west to east and not many track like this current one will This one is a hybrid of sorts, it has a slight southern stream connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We have no seen something like this in ssooooo LONGGG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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