12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?

[KokomoWX]

Lock it in.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

Lock it in.

Wow. I think it is almost irresponsible that the public is able to view such garbage. This model should not run beyond 36/48 hours. It does provide some comic relief though.

[LizardMafia]

Lock it in.

You know we're probably jinxed now..

Should be interesting to see how things play out in the models over the next few days..

[Ajdos]

I think the gfs, is more correct with the track, the nam has the right QPF.. Also I think this system will track further north.

[Moneyman]

Hello 18z NAM. Farther north but not as strong. It is the NAM though and it is the 18z NAM lol.

[Tony]

The storm coming this weekend will bomb out Monday off the coast. Right now it looks like a 100-200 mile wide swath of 6-10 inch snows falls from the Dakotas to central WVA and then 3-6 inches across Virginia late Sat night and Sunday. The NAM fits right in with his thinking.

Source: Joe Bastardi's afternoon update

[Chicago Storm]

The storm coming this weekend will bomb out Monday off the coast. Right now it looks like a 100-200 mile wide swath of 6-10 inch snows falls from the Dakotas to central WVA and then 3-6 inches across Virginia late Sat night and Sunday. The NAM fits right in with his thinking.

Source: Joe Bastardi's afternoon update

Riding the NAM FTL.

[Chicago Storm]

the nam has the right QPF.

Good luck with that.

[A-L-E-K]

Hello 18z NAM. Farther north but not as strong. It is the NAM though and it is the 18z NAM lol.

850 low looks pretty much the same, the minor wobbles in QPF bands mean little at this range.

[Moneyman]

True. This storm isn't even fully sampled yet right?

[Hoosier]

850 low looks pretty much the same, the minor wobbles in QPF bands mean little at this range.

I think the northward extent of the QPF is farther north more than the actual system on this run.

[Hoosier]

I think the gfs, is more correct with the track, the nam has the right QPF.. Also I think this system will track further north.

Reason?

[A-L-E-K]

Reason?

More snow in his backyard, fwiw he's from Michigan.

[Hoosier]

Good luck with that.

Yeah really, although as northern IN pointed out, the origin of the system suggests that it may be able to crank out some decent amounts.

[Moneyman]

Green Bay AFD said lake enhanced snow is possible as well.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CENTRAL

WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING ACCUMULATING

SNOW...POSSIBLY IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES

AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL THIS IN MIND...USING A SNOW:LIQUID RATIO OF

13:1. PENDING HOW FAR TO THE NE MOISTURE REACHES...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME

LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NE

WINDS AND A COUPLE INCHES HERE AS WELL.

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[oldlogin]

Lock it in.

Now thats what I call an accurate map-

[A-L-E-K]

Green Bay AFD said lake enhanced snow is possible as well.

Source: http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1

NAM picks up a little and GFS has been showing some as well, but the window on our side of the lake will be brief. Should get a better feel for LE potential in 36 hrs or so when some of the hi res models come into range.

[LizardMafia]

IND going with the more conservative 1-2" thoughts for now..

[Chicago Storm]

NAM picks up a little and GFS has been showing some as well, but the window on our side of the lake will be brief. Should get a better feel for LE potential in 36 hrs or so when some of the hi res models come into range.

STL WRF has it.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php

Congrats Saukville at 78hrs.

[BeastFromTheEast]

NAM picks up a little and GFS has been showing some as well, but the window on our side of the lake will be brief. Should get a better feel for LE potential in 36 hrs or so when some of the hi res models come into range.

From accuweather,

"

Potential Chicago Lake-Effect

A northeast flow in the wake of the storm could set up a band of heavy lake-effect snow in the Chicago and Milwaukee area Saturday afternoon and night.

So even though these areas may miss the "sweet spot" of the storm, shovels and plows may be busy anyway trying to clear 6 inches of the white stuff."

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/42387/weekend-snowstorm-for-the-midw-1.asp

[Stebo]

Reason?

I'll field this one, 3 reasons why I would think it will be further north, 1 being models handling of clippers at this range to dig them too far south, yes I know its a hybrid so to speak but the origin of the energy is for a majority northern stream. Secondly as noted by you Hoosier the track of the 850/700mb lows are further north and don't match the QPF maps, its dangerous to just go by QPF maps knowing the lows are north. The 3rd and more important reason is that the block to the northeast is being forecasted too strong in my opinion, If it ends up being weaker which I would expect then you'd expect the clipper to track further north.

[A-L-E-K]

From accuweather,

"

Potential Chicago Lake-Effect

A northeast flow in the wake of the storm could set up a band of heavy lake-effect snow in the Chicago and Milwaukee area Saturday afternoon and night.

So even though these areas may miss the "sweet spot" of the storm, shovels and plows may be busy anyway trying to clear 6 inches of the white stuff."

http://www.accuweath...-the-midw-1.asp

I like our chances at some enhancement, maybe adding 1/2-1" but i've lived here long enough to know bands of heavy lake effect snow don't come around nearly as often as they are talked about.

[Ajdos]

Reason?

I was checking out the 12z nam, the LP and the location of the band of snow are not in the right location.. The Precip should always be north of the lp, not the lp in the middle of the precip..hr 78

Adjustments to the band look likely. And I think the nam has the right solution to this clipper..

12Z..

[daddylonglegs]

Saukville will easily pick up 10-15 inches :)

[Ajdos]

I'll field this one, 3 reasons why I would think it will be further north, 1 being models handling of clippers at this range to dig them too far south, yes I know its a hybrid so to speak but the origin of the energy is for a majority northern stream. Secondly as noted by you Hoosier the track of the 850/700mb lows are further north and don't match the QPF maps, its dangerous to just go by QPF maps knowing the lows are north. The 3rd and more important reason is that the block to the northeast is being forecasted too strong in my opinion, If it ends up being weaker which I would expect then you'd expect the clipper to track further north.

AGree.

[Chicago WX]

Lock it in.

I probably would have been better off not seeing that map.

[Ajdos]

They also think an adjustment is possible.

000FXUS63 KDTX 012056AFDDTXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI356 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

ATTENTION ON SATURDAY TURNS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEASTOUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY A 120 KNOT UPPER JET. THELARGE SCALE RESPONSE WILL PRIMARILY HOLD SOUTH AND WEST WITH ANASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM IOWA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIOVALLEY DURING THIS TIME. ALL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THISPATTERN EVOLUTION...MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF FGEN/DEFORMATION FORCEDSNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL INTO INDIANA. THE 12Z GFSDOES PROVIDE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PLACEMENT INRESPONSE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER WAVE...A TREND WORTH MONITORING FORTHE OHIO BORDER COUNTIES GIVEN THE PROJECTED TRACK/

[daddylonglegs]

LSE says:

AT THIS POINT THE STRONGER

FORCING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST

AREA BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FRIDAY...WHEN THE MAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE

EXPECTED. WITH SOME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO

SEE SOME HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD ENHANCE

ACCUMULATIONS. 01.15Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS INDICATE AROUND .20 TO .35

INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE SYSTEM WITH COBB OUTPUT

SUGGESTING A 12-15:1 RATIO. AT THIS POINT EXPECT A BROAD SWATH OF 4

TO 6 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST

MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN POSSIBLE. THIS ALSO IN-LINE WITH

HPC GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS

MORE LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS STILL HAVE PLENTY OF

TIME TO HOIST A WATCH IF NEED BE.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT:

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK

SFC LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND THE OHIO VALLEY

SATURDAY. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACK OF THIS LOW AS WELL AS

THE AXIS OF QPF...WHICH EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND RIGHT THRU

THE CWA. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES AMONG THE

MODELS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HPC QPF AMOUNTS. THIS EVENT IS

STILL 60 HRS OUT...ROUGHLY...AND CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW

OR TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL IMPACT THE EXPECTED

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT A RATIO OF 11 TO 1 APPLIED TO THE ABOVE QPF

AMOUNTS CERTAINLY IMPLIES SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE

BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EITHER A MINIMUM OR MAXIMUM

AMOUNT.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...TURNING THE GRADIENT NORTHEAST FOR

A SHORT TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING...

THEN NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS COLD AIR SPREADS OVER THE WARMER

WATERS...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHIFTING EAST THRU

THE NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DURATION/AMOUNTS.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT:

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK

SFC LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND THE OHIO VALLEY

SATURDAY. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACK OF THIS LOW AS WELL AS

THE AXIS OF QPF...WHICH EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND RIGHT THRU

THE CWA. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES AMONG THE

MODELS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HPC QPF AMOUNTS. THIS EVENT IS

STILL 60 HRS OUT...ROUGHLY...AND CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW

OR TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL IMPACT THE EXPECTED

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT A RATIO OF 11 TO 1 APPLIED TO THE ABOVE QPF

AMOUNTS CERTAINLY IMPLIES SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE

BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EITHER A MINIMUM OR MAXIMUM

AMOUNT.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...TURNING THE GRADIENT NORTHEAST FOR

A SHORT TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING...

THEN NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS COLD AIR SPREADS OVER THE WARMER

WATERS...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHIFTING EAST THRU

THE NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DURATION/AMOUNTS.

It might be time to revise my first call.