CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Is it possible for ENSO to be weak anymore...Jesus. Hopefully we can get some sort of weak ENSO event for next winter. Many of those plume members are still in the weak zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM clowny loves Dendrite. Ugh from south to north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hopefully we can get some sort of weak ENSO event for next winter. Many of those plume members are still in the weak zone. What's the most favorable state for snow in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 What's the most favorable state for snow in SNE? Weak el Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Ugh from south to north: That one I did of the Rev is crappy. I'll redo it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 What's the most favorable state for snow in SNE? CT Weak el Nino. still not getting it? no matter the state NAO rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 CT still not getting it? no matter the state NAO rules He's right though....weak El Nino is easily the best enso state here. Doesn't mean others don't work...just which one is the most favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 He's right though....weak El Nino is easily the best enso state here. Doesn't mean others don't work...just which one is the most favorable. Just seems ironic this year. I am sure weak is best but right now today after having the best six week period of my life with a mod to strong Nina and a mod NEG NAO, I will take that combo over any. 1 year of data does not make a best state I know, but I have 54 years of data sets in my brain, never seen it before down here anyways. Chicken,Egg but to me the NAO rules at least in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just seems ironic this year. I am sure weak is best but right now today after having the best six week period of my life with a mod to strong Nina and a mod NEG NAO, I will take that combo over any. 1 year of data does not make a best state I know, but I have 54 years of data sets in my brain, never seen it before down here anyways. Chicken,Egg but to me the NAO rules at least in CT. Steve, it's too bad you can't remember 1960-61. 12/10/60-2/10/61 outdid this year in terms of cold and snow. Yes amounts are higher this year but memory suggests that's entirely due to modern measurement techniques. This year was epic but that year was better I believe. Why? Because the cold was unreal...and 3 SERIOUS KU's with 2 foot amounts commonplace in 2 of them is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just seems ironic this year. I am sure weak is best but right now today after having the best six week period of my life with a mod to strong Nina and a mod NEG NAO, I will take that combo over any. 1 year of data does not make a best state I know, but I have 54 years of data sets in my brain, never seen it before down here anyways. Chicken,Egg but to me the NAO rules at least in CT. Well on the flip side of the coin, you have last year's -NAO abortion in Ferbuary/March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just seems ironic this year. I am sure weak is best but right now today after having the best six week period of my life with a mod to strong Nina and a mod NEG NAO, I will take that combo over any. 1 year of data does not make a best state I know, but I have 54 years of data sets in my brain, never seen it before down here anyways. Chicken,Egg but to me the NAO rules at least in CT. You always do this...dunno whether it's an age thing or what, but you take one tiny snippet of an anomaly and run away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Well on the flip side of the coin, you have last year's -NAO abortion in Ferbuary/March More often than not, neg NAO is favorable and weak Ninos are favorable.....he has this NAO fetish and always goes on a crusade to combat any assertion that any other atmospheric state can be favorable, in and of itself and independant of the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Here is a thought....imagine what could have been if ENSO was less assertive this season....mabbe we don't have that 6 week period of puke and we smash 1996. NAO is definitely one of the most important factors, but it is not the only one and doesn't ALWAYS override everthing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Here is a thought....imagine what could have been if ENSO was less assertive this season....mabbe we don't have that 6 week period of puke and we smash 1996. NAO is definitely one of the most important factors, but it is not the only one and doesn't ALWAYS override everthing else. Yeah you never know...March 2011 maybe ends up like March '96 or even better...Mar '93 or something if enso is weak. We'll never know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Yeah you never know...March 2011 maybe ends up like March '96 or even better...Mar '93 or something if enso is weak. We'll never know though. I have never had a better 1.5 day stretch than March 31-April 1, 1997....+NAO rules and April is the snowiest month. 30 years of data sets in my head tell me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm pretty confident that the NAO would have met less resistance in it's effort to return to a negative state, had ENSO been less of a factor....does that necessarily mean that we would have seen a signifacant deal of additional snow, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Steve, it's too bad you can't remember 1960-61. 12/10/60-2/10/61 outdid this year in terms of cold and snow. Yes amounts are higher this year but memory suggests that's entirely due to modern measurement techniques. This year was epic but that year was better I believe. Why? Because the cold was unreal...and 3 SERIOUS KU's with 2 foot amounts commonplace in 2 of them is pretty amazing. Living in SRI at the time, 45 inches 60/61 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Well on the flip side of the coin, you have last year's -NAO abortion in Ferbuary/March I finished above average last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I finished above average last year Very small + anomaly, so I guess - NAO isn't THAT great for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Living in SRI at the time, 45 inches 60/61 Meh 60-61 wasn't that amazing for extreme coastal SNE even up to about Logan Airport. You had to be off the water a bit in that season to get amazing totals unlike down in NJ where Jerry was at the time. Good year no doubt, but not epic in SNE...until you got back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 You always do this...dunno whether it's an age thing or what, but you take one tiny snippet of an anomaly and run away with it. Fact niño state is not the king up here, if it was then LR would be easy. Figure out the NAO in the heart of winter, nail it. No coincidence our winter went south when the phase change happened. IDK how being 54 affects my judgement either, still sharp as a tack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 More often than not, neg NAO is favorable and weak Ninos are favorable.....he has this NAO fetish and always goes on a crusade to combat any assertion that any other atmospheric state can be favorable, in and of itself and independant of the NAO. Provide stats that show a constant neutral or positive NAO and a great overall winter. Individual storms sure, but let's be real, cold, snow cover, constant depth winters feature Neg NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Fact niño state is not the king up here, if it was then LR would be easy. Figure out the NAO in the heart of winter, nail it. No coincidence our winter went south when the phase change happened. IDK how being 54 affects my judgement either, still sharp as a tack. NAO may have a higher correlation to snow up here than ENSO state (not sure), but ENSO also plays a large role. There is a reason why we had never seen anything like this year in a strong la Nina, before. There is a reason why the 1993-94 winter rocked and December of 2007 rocked....NAO is a very large factor, but it's not the only major factor........NAO is gratly affected by ENSO, which is why it is more difficult for it to assume a negative state in strong NEG ENSO event. All I mean regarding the age is that often times the older generations will be less receptive to statistical analysis depend more on anecdotal observations. Nothing to do with the erosion of mental capactity. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm pretty confident that the NAO would have met less resistance in it's effort to return to a negative state, had ENSO been less of a factor....does that necessarily mean that we would have seen a signifacant deal of additional snow, no. Opinions are like eekholes everyone has one. No way to back up your confidence or mine that the change in AO state was the real cause of winter crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Provide stats that show a constant neutral or positive NAO and a great overall winter. Individual storms sure, but let's be real, cold, snow cover, constant depth winters feature Neg NAO. NAO may have a higher correlation to snow up here than ENSO state (not sure), but ENSO also plays a large role. There is a reason why we had never seen anything like this year in a strong la Nina, before. There is a reason why the 1993-94 winter rocked and December of 2007 rocked....NAO is a very large factor, but it's not the only major factor........NAO is gratly affected by ENSO, which is why it is more difficult for it to assume a negative state in strong NEG ENSO event. All I mean regarding the age is that often times the older generations will be less receptive to statistical analysis depend more on anecdotal observations. Nothing to do with the erosion of mental capactity. Fact. Look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Opinions are like eekholes everyone has one. No way to back up your confidence or mine that the change in AO state was the real cause of winter crapping out. Strong negative ENSO states are much more highly correlated to +NAO...FACT. Storng positive, too for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAO may have a higher correlation to snow up here than ENSO state (not sure), but ENSO also plays a large role. There is a reason why we had never seen anything like this year in a strong la Nina, before. There is a reason why the 1993-94 winter rocked and December of 2007 rocked....NAO is a very large factor, but it's not the only major factor........NAO is gratly affected by ENSO, which is why it is more difficult for it to assume a negative state in strong NEG ENSO event. All I mean regarding the age is that often times the older generations will be less receptive to statistical analysis depend more on anecdotal observations. Nothing to do with the erosion of mental capactity. Fact. Phew I thought you were calling me an old fook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Phew I thought you were calling me an old fook. No, no.....just a generational thing...not physiological. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Strong negative ENSO states are much more highly correlated to +NAO...FACT. Storng positive, too for that matter. In New England?, show me the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAO may have a higher correlation to snow up here than ENSO state (not sure), but ENSO also plays a large role. There is a reason why we had never seen anything like this year in a strong la Nina, before. There is a reason why the 1993-94 winter rocked and December of 2007 rocked....NAO is a very large factor, but it's not the only major factor........NAO is gratly affected by ENSO, which is why it is more difficult for it to assume a negative state in strong NEG ENSO event. All I mean regarding the age is that often times the older generations will be less receptive to statistical analysis depend more on anecdotal observations. Nothing to do with the erosion of mental capactity. Fact. FACT. NOT OPINION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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