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New England 4/4 - 4/6


Arnold214

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I am so pleased the Eastern DB is back, valuable research done can be recaptured. From Will and what's coming. Do not discount more snow for you CNE NNE folks

FINAL Updated Total # of events by MJO phase:

Phase 1: 13

Phase 2: 23

Phase 3: 17

Phase 4: 10

Phase 5: 12

Phase 6: 11

Phase 7: 18

Phase 8: 26

42d4d0af-d69d-97c0.jpg

I was just talking to Will about this the other day...the thread he and Gibbs created about MJO phase vs. events. Nice.

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I have no interest in out of season snows unless it occurs in autumn. Snow in July would make me sick. Now before you jump down my throat consider this: All of our years are limited. Loss of a summer at in your mid 60s is a big loss and one I'd rather not endure.

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Just sayin'.lol

NAM still insistent on some snow, especially the higher interior spots predawn through 15z or so tomorrow.

You can see on this map, the NAM pegs modest VV's and the 850-700 critical thickness line is way back over wrn mass and CT and 12z. It would be snow for you prior to this. Looks like it argues for an inch or two, especially up in nrn ORH and perhaps onto the Berks.

post-33-0-75997600-1301841605.gif

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NAM still insistent on some snow, especially the higher interior spots predawn through 15z or so tomorrow.

You can see on this map, the NAM pegs modest VV's and the 850-700 critical thickness line is way back over wrn mass and CT and 12z. It would be snow for you prior to this. Looks like it argues for an inch or two, especially up in nrn ORH and perhaps onto the Berks.

post-33-0-75997600-1301841605.gif

Yeah was just looking at that. Actually could come down at a good clip for a while too.

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NAM still insistent on some snow, especially the higher interior spots predawn through 15z or so tomorrow.

You can see on this map, the NAM pegs modest VV's and the 850-700 critical thickness line is way back over wrn mass and CT and 12z. It would be snow for you prior to this. Looks like it argues for an inch or two, especially up in nrn ORH and perhaps onto the Berks.

post-33-0-75997600-1301841605.gif

Cool, seems so far away. Hoping to add more to the year's take. Has it been cold there? Want to see my snowpack survive until my return. Any more snow in the offing?

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Probably nothing more then non-accumulating ambiance snow here...but its another shot at seeing snow... and another shot to anger the spring lovers laugh.gif

THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A PERIOD OF SNOW LATESUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THEINTERIOR. MIXED WET SNOW AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ALONG THECOAST. DO NOTE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MICROBARS OF OMEGA EXTENDING INTO THEDENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS SUGGESTINGLIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVERTO ALL RAIN. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ADVERTISED ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA MONDAY GIVEN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPICLIFT...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

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I wish I had that natural facility for remembering specific dates of events like Will. That part of my brain I don't think actually exists.

I wish I had the discipline to write the dates down along with the characteristic of the impact - that would be an alternative, but I am easily ad nauseated by the tedium of that.

I can remember sometime in the mid to late 1980's there was an unpredicted 6-10" snow around Middlesex Co. in Mas. A warm frontal wave, much like what the 12z NAM has, did the trick. I seem to recall it being an early April thing, but I just went through the NCEP library and could find it. So who knows... could have been in Feb or March. But I know it did happen, and the antecedent conditions were similar.

I'm looking over the 12z NAM and I see wonderful warm front depiction in the PP, and what is clearly some kind of weak wave developed on it ...escaping off the NE Coast.... Then, the warm air gets in later on... Kind of 2 events tucked into one there. This weak wave seems to assist some snow for central NE.

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wish I could...I'd rather have it over GON anyway.

Well that's the town you locked in..lol.

In any case, looking forward to another active season hopefully. Some of the ingredients seem in place, I guess the biggest wildcard is if an El Nino develops or do we just have weak to perhaps neutral SST base in the tropical Pacific.

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Well that's the town you locked in..lol.

In any case, looking forward to another active season hopefully. Some of the ingredients seem in place, I guess the biggest wildcard is if an El Nino develops or do we just have weak to perhaps neutral SST base in the tropical Pacific.

haha....what am I Kevin or Bastardi now?

There are a significant number of members forecasting moderate El Nino by August which is a bit disconcerting. MSLP and precip probability look good for the Atlantic for the first part of the season at least.

nino_plumes_euro_public!3.4!201103!chart.gif

seasonal_charts_rain!rain!tercile%20summary!3%20months!Tropics!201103!chart.gif

seasonal_charts_mslp!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!tercile%20summary!3%20months!Tropics!201103!chart.gif

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haha....what am I Kevin or Bastardi now?

There are a significant number of members forecasting moderate El Nino by August which is a bit disconcerting. MSLP and precip probability look good for the Atlantic for the first part of the season at least.

nino_plumes_euro_public!3.4!201103!chart.gif

seasonal_charts_rain!rain!tercile%20summary!3%20months!Tropics!201103!chart.gif

seasonal_charts_mslp!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!tercile%20summary!3%20months!Tropics!201103!chart.gif

I haven't looked at those in a while, but wow that's pretty bullish. Hmm.

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