CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Nice to see the denizens of this fine organization have caught on This multi-day teleconnector flagged warm departure is still on-going. The PNA is negative and pinneed, and the NAO is positive - either could signal a warming pattern; having them both is a converging signal. This is consistent at both the CPC and CDC. However the CPC does have a 2-d fly in the ointment dip in the NAO to nearly neutral, but then rockets it back to over +1SD in the extended. I'm not sure such a brief excursion is enough to orchestrate much of a mass field response at our lat/lon. Not likely... That said, I recall mentioning last week or thereabouts that the deterministic guidance might rather abruptly catch on and begin depicting bigger warming. The recent Euro runs play terrific homage to that. That 144 hour panel (8 pm next Monday evening) from 00z last night is a whopper warm day here in SNE considering we have not really had any seriously warm departed stints, so it may come as a bit of a shocker actually. +17C at 850 mb, with a WSW wind, along with 700mb RH of 50% allows for substantial solar insolation - if the BL gets that tall, and I think it could if that PP verified due to sufficient mixing in a 22kt mid BL flow, we'd make 84F at places like BED and CEF in a snap. Tough to go that bullish with the GFS so cool, but the GFS does have a slight longitudinal bias so it is not surprising that it is... Also, keep in mind folks not to be too MOS reliant in mid spring and mid autumn for your middle and extended ranges. MOS verification is best in mid winter and mid summer, when for a number of weeks climo becomes static. At the transition seasons, the dailies are shifting warm and cooler respectively, and thus climo melded into the MOS products out in time will tend to mute any extremes. 78F is what the Euro has for Monday afternoon at FIT, and that is about 6F underdone balanced against the synoptics of the day off the Euro run and as is. Again, this is notwithstanding whether it actually verifies that way. However, I will add that the Euro has been honing at least one hugely warm departed afternoon during either Monday or Tuesday of this next week, more so than not across recent runs. Personally I'd go with 80F for Monday and word that as possibly even warmer. Seasonal: This is appearing to duplicate last year to some lesser degree - no pun intended. Though we did not register regionally a warm March as we did last year, I do see some similarities going forward in that we are loosing just about all vectors for cold unilaterally in much in the same way. April may very well go down as above, perhaps well above normal. The AO is lofty, meaning that hemispherically the westerlies gradient is relaxing at middle latitudes by day. Combined with a general retreat N by the more middle latitude teleconnectors (PNA/NAO), indicates even perhaps early warm season eruption of subtropicl ridge dominance. This can be seen also in the AAM totals, showing increased torque (or lessening meridional flow); though it is not a prognostic tool, it does give some semblance of where we are going particularly when balancing in these other statistical packages. Interesting... That's a huge point, and we saw how much MAV MOS stunk it up for yesterday. MAV will be grossly underdone during Spring extremes. MET too.As far as the synoptics go, this time in April always seems to be when the first real + departure day occurs. Seems like the 8th to the 15th of every April has one of those 80+ days. I'm not saying this is a lock for Monday, but just noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 [stquote name=weathafella' timestamp='1302090181' post='613449] It's April 6th in the Boston area. It's gone. Unless you expect a freak snow weeks from now which I would not have any use for. I'm of the mindset that each season in it's time. Any snow under mega totals at this point is not worth losing sleep over. Just bustin' Jerry. Each season should be enjoyed. Sounds warm down there. Still Winter here, bottomless powder in the mountains.Stay cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I got a taste of tree pollen in DC and it has taken two days for the effects to pass..... So I can't look forward to Spring wx, but it is probably best to just get it over with quickly. The most painless pollen seasons are the ones where you warm up real fast and it all leafs out at once. I actually took a walk in the early Spring woods near my cousins in MD (thought I was safe because I didn't see budding maples) and took some pleasure in all the budding trees, etc., but then I paid for it. Spring FTL. Enjoy AK ... sounds great. Just bustin' Jerry. Each season should be enjoyed. Sounds warm down there. Still Winter here, bottomless powder in the mountains.Stay cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 4-8" tonight and 6-12" tomorrow and that only gets a Winter Weather Advisory here.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Where in the hell did that rain/snow out to our west and thru the lakes come from? I was thinking that it would dry up later today and not make it in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Where in the hell did that rain/snow out to our west and thru the lakes come from? I was thinking that it would dry up later today and not make it in here That's been modeled for a while. Maybe some mix or snow for the wrn CT hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 That's been modeled for a while. Maybe some mix or snow for the wrn CT hills. So the rest of us don't see anything right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 So the rest of us don't see anything right? Not sure it gets much farther ne than HFD-GON, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Not sure it gets much farther ne than HFD-GON, but we'll see. NAM says 1-3 for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 NAM says 1-3 for some no it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 no it doesn't In the poconos it sure does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 In the poconos it sure does lol and who cares about the Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Euro has a legit torch for Monday. Wish the winds were more westerly, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Euro has a legit torch for Monday. Wish the winds were more westerly, though. All i care about are getting my youtube uploads..How is it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 tale of two days today, up until 2 it was brilliant blue skies and warmth, clouds came in and temp dropped like a rock (at least on the water in Rowayton), back at the hacienda its 49 with a high cirrus deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 no it doesn't Ryan are we going to get a mix of rain and snow down here tonight? nam and gfs look close at 850 and dp's are low, what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 We have had some nice snow showers the past couple of hours up here at 1100 feet in Central NH. Noticed Concord NH just 40 miles south is 52F. We never broke into the warm air yesterday only got to 42F. We had 2" of snow the day before then rain yesterday morning before it turned to snow and ended. Was hoping for some warmer weather today but its been in the upper 30's all afternoon with wind and snow in the air. Still 12-18" of snow in the woods and north facing slopes while south facing fields are mostly free of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 This one is for Ray... 8" in the past 24 hours and we have now exceeded 100" at the stake for a net gain from this "rain storm." The rain storm also brought more snow down in the village than the last Winter Storm Warning did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 33.7F Moderate snow. Didn't expect this today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 yeah, snowing decently at my house right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Ended up with almost 2" within one hour and above freezing the whole time. Very impressive and unexpected up here in Central NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Ended up with almost 2" within one hour and above freezing the whole time. Very impressive and unexpected up here in Central NH Looks like there was some weak frontogenesis up that way, but a s/w and left exit region to perhaps enhance the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Holy ****, this was just put on air. I know the euro was warm but everything would have to go right for 84 on Monday....I mean to put that out on day 5 is bold. With Sunday approaching 70 and Saturday in the low 60s...its like CTTORCH took over the forecast. ...wow wbz has 85...then a few other channels have only 68-70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Plenty of time to adjust higher, even if it looks like those temps are possible this far out, but more power to him I guess. Might be tough for BOS to get that warm with strong s-sw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Plenty of time to adjust higher, even if it looks like those temps are possible this far out, but more power to him I guess. Might be tough for BOS to get that warm with strong s-sw winds. Yeah that's a really ballsy forecast for day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Harvey went 63 on Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Harvey went 63 on Monday lol He has 70 as of a few min ago, from what I saw on TV. Either way, that's probably a good middle of the road because no doubt the south coast will be coldest and areas nw the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 He has 70 as of a few min ago, from what I saw on TV. Either way, that's probably a good middle of the road because no doubt the south coast will be coldest and areas nw the warmest. Yeah I would have put low-mid 70s I think. Noyes had 61 lol...but that does average in NNE. Regardless, I don't think 80s was a good move, wbz has 70 for Sunday and 85 for Monday. My facebook already has multiple "80s next week!" updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Yeah I would have put low-mid 70s I think. Noyes had 61 lol...but that does average in NNE. Regardless, I don't think 80s was a good move, wbz has 70 for Sunday and 85 for Monday. My facebook already has multiple "80s next week!" updates. The potential is certainly there if the atmosphere is not junky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 44/34 temps crashing as light rain has moved in, sat onwards looks simply torchlicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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