Late Season SVR Threat (Nov 30th - Dec 1st)

[SBUWX23]

What is the significance in looking at most unstable cape in this scenario compared to mixed layer?

Just to asses overall stability.

[theodometer]

Line just came through my location in Rock Hill in last 20 minutes or so. About 10 minutes of heavy rain and wind--and then done. Kind of disappointing...hoping for more rain overnight or I'm gonna have to turn my sprinklers back on!

[WeatherNC]

Thanks, I still have a lot of reading to do on the subject and was under the impression that ml most accurately reflected the cape available, but could in some cases underestimate potential as it only shows the lowest 100 mb layer, i.e. if most of the energy was on or near the surface.

Just stepped outside, feels a little muggier compared to earlier this evening. -RN atm, heavier at times, and a bit breezy, in the 10-15 mph range.

[SBUWX23]

Thanks, I still have a lot of reading to do on the subject and was under the impression that ml most accurately reflected the cape available, but could in some cases underestimate potential as it only shows the lowest 100 mb layer, i.e. if most of the energy was on or near the surface.

Just stepped outside, feels a little muggier compared to earlier this evening. -RN atm, heavier at times, and a bit breezy, in the 10-15 mph range.

MLCAPE is probably the best parameter to use since mixing is cooking tonight with the SE flow. As long as the parcel is lifted in this mixed layer and there is cape then it accelerates. I always look at MUCAPE this year though since you sometimes have the shallow stable layers.

[Snow haven]

storms seem to be falling apart a bit.

[SBUWX23]

storms seem to be falling apart a bit.

Its deceiving as the line is now over a not well sampled region. The beams may be overshooting the majority of the convection at this point.

[SBUWX23]

Line as observed by the TCLT radar. This radar helps to fill the void right now as KGSP and KRAH beams are overshooting the majority of the convection down there..

[yoda]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1202 AM CST WED DEC 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010602Z - 010800Z

THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE

AND INTENSITY...AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

RADAR SHOWS STORMS INCREASING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG A LOW

LEVEL CONFLUENCE LINE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS

SHOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S F...WITH UPPER 60S F

OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COOLING

ALOFT/STEEPEN OF LAPSE RATES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT INCREASING

CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 12/01/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2105.html

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

[yoda]

TORNADO WARNING Columbus/Bladen counties in Eastern NC

[yoda]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0761.html

[lilj4425]

Damage reported just west of here in downtown Easley, SC from the line that rolled through earlier tonight: http://www.wyff4.com...433/detail.html and http://www2.wspa.com/news/2010/dec/01/windows-shattered-roads-closed-easley-ar-1153277/

[eyewall]

Severe weather fail in Southern Pines but power just went out here well after the line. Heard explosions and buzzing so a transformer went somehow or a branch broke and fell on a line.

[Isopycnic]

Severe weather fail in Southern Pines but power just went out here well after the line. Heard explosions and buzzing so a transformer went somehow or a branch broke and fell on a line.

It is a stormy and windy morning down here in New Bern.

[WeatherNC]

Not as bad of a let-down as the pds watch we had late last year, but no svr to speak of here in eastern NC. Never a fan of these high-shear no instability setups, and this fall illustrates why. Good wind out this am, with occasional gusts to 30, and maybe 40 through the tops of the big pines outback.

[MountainMarvel]

Finished with over 7 inches.... WOW! Sunny this morning and very breezy with 39 degrees at 8 a.m. Heading out to check the creeks. What a way to end November.

[MountainMarvel]

The creeks are all over their banks. This video is of Otter Creek, and one of its branches. Normally it is a small slow moving stream, but not this morning. The temp has actually dropped to 38. Look out Cleveland County, I'm sending you all the rain you didn't get via the Broad River.

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=qtTrfgW0kNQ

[GaStorm]

WSB tv and the AJC both reporting significant damage right near the Mall of Georgia area. I live about 2 miles away from the area and may try to check it out on my way home from work. Didn't experience anything dangerous here with the exception of very heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder, but that was about the time the damage was reported. If it verifies as tornado damage, I'll actually be very surprised that something materialized out of one of our typical wedge situations. I know that the warm front was charging north, but usually the storms run out of steam once they get to the Atlanta area.

A friend of mine drove over someone's window shutter on 85 yesterday going north. Pretty crazy to think there may of been a tornado after a strong wedge was in place.

[strongwxnc]

Cool. I assumed you would post a video!!

Thanks..

The creeks are all over their banks. This video is of Otter Creek, and one of its branches. Normally it is a small slow moving stream, but not this morning. The temp has actually dropped to 38. Look out Cleveland County, I'm sending you all the rain you didn't get via the Broad River.

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=qtTrfgW0kNQ

[lilj4425]

QPF amounts from system now up here: http://www.erh.noaa....-12-01-1829.php And the winner:

LAKE TOXAWAY 2 SW COOP......................9.29 inches

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Rainfall totals for previous storm:

NOUS42 KGSP 011828

PNSGSP

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-

068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020030-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

128 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LISTED BELOW.

THESE TOTALS COVER THE TIME PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO

WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE TOTALS ARE TAKEN FROM OBSERVATION POINTS

ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING COCORAHS AND COOP REPORTS.

LAKE TOXAWAY 2 SW COOP......................9.29

LAKE TOXAWAY 1 NNW..........................8.95

BREVARD COOP................................8.85

FLAT ROCK 2 S...............................8.15

BREVARD 1 NNE...............................7.55

BREVARD 8 SE................................7.38

BREVARD 1 NNW...............................7.30

BREVARD 1 SSW...............................7.04

BREVARD 4 S.................................6.88

FLAT ROCK 4 NE..............................6.79

BREVARD 5 E.................................6.64

CANTON 10 S.................................6.54

CHIMNEY ROCK................................6.34

PISGAH FOREST 3 NE..........................6.14

OLD FORT COOP...............................6.00

CLEVELAND 8 WSW.............................5.94

HENDERSONVILLE 3 NW.........................5.92

LINVILLE FALLS 1 NW.........................5.82

BLANTYRE....................................5.81

MOUNTAIN CITY 2 N...........................5.70

HENDERSONVILLE 10 ENE.......................5.69

MT MITCHELL COOP............................5.66

PICKENS 9 N.................................5.64

SALEM.......................................5.62

LAUREL PARK 2 NW............................5.60

CLARKESVILLE 12 NNW.........................5.58

SALEM 3 WNW.................................5.54

MARION 2 NNW................................5.36

HELEN 10 ENE................................5.34

RABUN GAP 1 WNW.............................5.14

ETOWAH 2 NW.................................4.93

CAESARS HEAD................................4.84

FAIRVIEW 4 ENE..............................4.83

PICKENS 7 W.................................4.73

WALHALLA 6 WNW..............................4.72

ASHEVILLE AIRPORT...........................4.65

MORGANTON COOP..............................4.61

ARDEN 3 WNW.................................4.60

TRYON.......................................4.58

ARDEN 3 WNW.................................4.57

FRANKLIN 1 W................................4.57

LONG CREEK..................................4.57

FLETCHER 1 WSW..............................4.49

FLETCHER 1 W................................4.48

SKYLAND 1 W.................................4.46

WALHALLA 2 NW...............................4.43

FLETCHER 3 E................................4.39

ASHEVILLE 7 SSW.............................4.37

MARION 5 NE.................................4.32

CULLOWHEE 11 ESE............................4.29

WEST UNION 2 ESE............................4.27

BEECH MOUNTAIN COOP.........................4.25

SENECA 5 N..................................4.22

BENT CREEK..................................4.21

DEMOREST 6 WNW..............................4.21

MARIETTA....................................4.19

CLARKESVILLE 9 NW...........................4.18

ARDEN 2 ENE.................................4.16

FAIRVIEW 1 S................................4.10

FAIRVIEW 2 ENE..............................4.10

PICKENS 2 WSW...............................4.04

TRAVELERS REST 9 N..........................3.94

CLARKESVILLE 9 NNW..........................3.89

COLUMBUS 2 E................................3.89

PATTERSON COOP..............................3.88

SWANNANOA 3 WNW.............................3.87

SENECA 1 E..................................3.82

RUTHERFORDTON 10 S..........................3.78

TRAVELERS REST 2 ESE........................3.78

ENKA........................................3.75

CARNESVILLE 4 N.............................3.73

SWANNANOA 3 NNW.............................3.72

GLEN ALPINE 1 WSW...........................3.71

CLARKESVILLE 4 WNW..........................3.66

CENTRAL 3 NNW...............................3.57

ROBBINSVILLE................................3.56

CANDLER 5 SW................................3.52

TRAVELERS REST 2 SSW........................3.52

BURNSVILLE 7 SSW............................3.51

GLEN ALPINE 3 S.............................3.46

CARNESVILLE 7 SW............................3.45

TRAVELERS REST 1 S..........................3.30

TOCCOA......................................3.26

CANDLER 1 W.................................3.21

HICKORY 2 NW................................3.18

LYMAN 4 WNW.................................3.16

WAYNESVILLE 5 W.............................3.15

ASHEVILLE 6 NNW.............................3.12

HICKORY 5 SW................................3.06

CULLOWHEE 15 SW.............................3.01

GREENVILLE 5 WNW............................3.01

FRANKLIN 4 ESE..............................2.99

HUNTS BRIDGE................................2.95

LYMAN 2 NNW.................................2.90

NORTH HICKORY 1 WNW.........................2.90

GSP AIRPORT.................................2.87

LIBERTY 2 SE................................2.87

ASHEVILLE 6 NNW.............................2.84

ANDERSON 5 N................................2.82

ROYSTON 4 W.................................2.82

WAYNESVILLE 5 NW............................2.79

BANNER ELK COOP.............................2.77

GREER 4 SW..................................2.77

ASHEVILLE 4 NNE.............................2.71

SANDY SPRINGS 2 NE..........................2.69

FRANKLIN 7 N................................2.64

OCONALUFTEE.................................2.64

BOSTIC 2 ENE................................2.63

GREENVILLE COOP.............................2.63

GREENVILLE 8 SE.............................2.62

SIMPSONVILLE 5 N............................2.62

FIVE FORKS 1 W..............................2.59

WAYNESVILLE 4 E.............................2.59

WAYNESVILLE 2 WSW...........................2.57

FLAT SPRINGS 1 E............................2.56

TOCCOA 5 SW.................................2.53

BAKERSVILLE 3 SE............................2.52

POWDERSVILLE 1 SSE..........................2.51

SPRUCE PINE 2 NE............................2.50

WAYNESVILLE COOP............................2.50

TAYLORS 3 NNW...............................2.49

BARNARDSVILLE 2 SE..........................2.47

MARS HILL 5 NNE.............................2.46

TAYLORS 3 NNW...............................2.43

WILLIAMSTON 5 W.............................2.40

GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT.................2.32

CHESNEE 4 SSW...............................2.31

SIMPSONVILLE 3 WNW..........................2.31

BAKERSVILLE 5 N.............................2.30

CANTO.......................................2.30

BALD CREEK 1 NW.............................2.27

WAYNESVILLE 4 S.............................2.27

TAYLORS 3 W.................................2.26

BURNSVILLE 7 W..............................2.21

WAYNESVILLE 1 NW............................2.21

LINCOLNTON 2 NW.............................2.17

HARTWELL 6 NW...............................2.16

WEAVERVILLE 4 N.............................2.16

BURNSVILLE 5 N..............................2.10

SIMPSONVILLE 4 NE...........................2.06

BRYSON CITY COOP............................2.01

HOT SPRINGS 8 SSW...........................1.99

CLYDE 3 W...................................1.94

CANTON......................................1.91

IVA 5 SSW...................................1.87

ANDERSON 8 SE...............................1.82

BRYSON CITY.................................1.82

KINGS MOUNTAIN 2 SW.........................1.73

LINCOLNTON 4 WSW............................1.73

MOCKSVILLE 7 SW.............................1.71

LAURENS.....................................1.70

STATESVILLE 2 NNE...........................1.70

HOT SPRINGS.................................1.69

CALHOUN FALLS...............................1.66

YORK 4 S....................................1.63

MOORE 5 NW..................................1.61

STATESVILLE 3 ENE...........................1.60

DUNCAN 5 SE.................................1.59

GREENWOOD 3 NNW.............................1.59

ASHEVILLE 2 N...............................1.58

ELBERTON 1 WNW..............................1.58

ANTREVILLE..................................1.57

HARMONY 3 SW................................1.56

UNION 2 NNE.................................1.54

WOODRUFF 5 NW...............................1.50

GAFFNEY 6 E.................................1.42

WACO 1 NNW..................................1.42

CHAPPELLS 5 NNW.............................1.36

HODGES 1 SE.................................1.35

WHITTIER 4 ESE..............................1.34

ADVANCE.....................................1.32

GASTONIA 6 SE...............................1.32

CHARLOTTE AIRPORT...........................1.30

CLINTON.....................................1.28

HODGES 6 NE.................................1.27

MOUNTVILLE 2 SE.............................1.25

GASTONIA 3 NE...............................1.20

LOCKHART....................................1.17

CHESTER 1 SE................................0.98

CONCORD 5 SW................................0.96

CHARLOTTE 2 NE..............................0.95

KANNAPOLIS 5 E..............................0.95

TEGA CAY 2 ESE..............................0.87

YORK 6 E....................................0.85

MOUNT PLEASANT..............................0.77

[GaffneyPeach]

At least 2 confirmed Ef 1's last night. Easley and Grey Court in SC.

[WeatherNC]

At least 2 confirmed Ef 1's last night. Easley and Grey Court in SC.

Glad you are ok, was thinking about it as you were about to leave work with that line coming through, and a couple rotations in it.

[lilj4425]

At least 2 confirmed Ef 1's last night. Easley and Grey Court in SC.

I live only about 5 minutes from Easley if even that. I drove through the city today and it was a mess especially the downtown and western parts of town. Roads are still closed in the area.

[Cheeznado]

Buford, GA tornado an EF-2:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20101130_tors

[GaffneyPeach]

Glad you are ok, was thinking about it as you were about to leave work with that line coming through, and a couple rotations in it.

I was sitting in the parking lot during the worst of it. Makes the third time I've heard "the sound"...it was just above the ground. No sound like that in the world.

[GaStorm]

Buford, GA tornado an EF-2:

http://www.srh.noaa....n=20101130_tors

Interesting. There was debris on 85 from the damaged homes since a friend of mine drove over it yesterday. Luckily nobody was hurt!

[audioguy3107]

Buford, GA tornado an EF-2:

http://www.srh.noaa....n=20101130_tors

Yeah, it's really been a while since we've had such a close call/hit in this area....have to go back to that crazy March in 2008 when one of the main supercells passed just to the north of here and just south of Gainesville. I'm still amazed that something produced with the whole "retreating wedge" setup that we have 100 times each year and the storms just die off as soon as they get near Atlanta. My home is literally 2 miles NE of the damage path...way too close for comfort.

Does anyone on here have a radar loop/velocity loop off GR-3 or whatever that shows the storm moving through the Gwinnett area? Was at work at the time and didn't have access.