WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I cant speak for dissapointment down there as I live in the maritime influence 24/7 here on LI but something is telling me now is not the time to gripe about this system. You dont want 75 over 60, you want 65-68 over 63 or so for the very low LCL. The shear profiles are going to be extreme. Any little instability and kick could really get something going. Yeah, I am not going to pull a Widre and storm cancel in a premature gaff, that is not me, but my expectations are in check given what has transpired here this year and the . I do feel that the best chances will be to my west and south, along a CAE to RAH line, but that remains to be seen. Going to be a late night, as the best dynamics will not be into eastern NC until the early morning hours, maybe after 3am. There are some cells firing s of ILM and to the east of CHS over the water, so those will have to be watched as the work up from the south. WFUS52 KGSP 010237TORGSP SCC059-083-010315- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0048.101201T0237Z-101201T0315Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 937 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1015 PM EST * AT 935 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GRAY COURT...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ENOREE... WOODRUFF... MOORE...ROEBUCK AND PAULINE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF... ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING... THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2. && LAT...LON 3468 8219 3471 8217 3473 8215 3475 8215 3484 8210 3492 8199 3490 8176 3453 8205 TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 212DEG 44KT 3467 8208 $$ MOORE This could be on the ground, or close to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Over 3.5 inches of rain has fallen along the escarpment...flooding underway across a large part of McDowell County. Also some power outages. I just left a basketball game up here at McDowell High and found out first hand just how bad its been the past 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wondering where you have been... Over 3.5 inches of rain has fallen along the escarpment...flooding underway across a large part of McDowell County. Also some power outages. I just left a basketball game up here at McDowell High and found out first hand just how bad its been the past 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 grats? is the rain wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Know we have some folks from the upstate, keep abreast to the situation over the next 30 minutes or so as there may be a tornado on ground, about to pass on the western eastern side of Spartanburg and on a beeline for Gaffney. Couplet has been getting better organized in the last several frames, nothing major gate to gate yet, be a definite hook and the cell is warned with the NWS believing it is on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Know we have some folks from the upstate, keep abreast to the situation over the next 30 minutes or so as there may be a tornado on ground, about to pass on the western side of Spartanburg and on a beeline for Gaffney. Couplet has been getting better organized in the last several frames, nothing major gate to gate yet, be a definite hook and the cell is warned with the NWS believing it is on the ground. Watching it ...thanks. I'll be leaving for work in...yeah...30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wondering where you have been... Yeah, I been at the ball game...R-S Central made their way up here tonight. I wouldn't like to travel 221 down that way on a night like tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Watching it ...thanks. I'll be leaving for work in...yeah...30 minutes. Looks to have lost the hook for the moment, but that whole line about to come through there has rotation scattered about it. I would wait to leave work if possible till after it passes, and this is hot off the press... WFUS52 KGSP 010314TORGSP NCC045-SCC021-083-010345- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0049.101201T0314Z-101201T0345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1014 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GAFFNEY... EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1045 PM EST * AT 1013 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COWPENS... OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... THICKETTY... GAFFNEY... EARL AND BLACKSBURG... PATTERSON SPRINGS AND GROVER... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF... ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING... THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2. && LAT...LON 3523 8142 3517 8143 3490 8177 3498 8197 3519 8178 3519 8177 3520 8177 3525 8172 TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 220DEG 43KT 3501 8180 $$ MOORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Thanks. Just to the NW oF Gaffney in NC. Know we have some folks from the upstate, keep abreast to the situation over the next 30 minutes or so as there may be a tornado on ground, about to pass on the western eastern side of Spartanburg and on a beeline for Gaffney. Couplet has been getting better organized in the last several frames, nothing major gate to gate yet, be a definite hook and the cell is warned with the NWS believing it is on the ground. And the winner was.... Bus ride home is going to suck,.. Yeah, I been at the ball game...R-S Central made their way up here tonight. I wouldn't like to travel 221 down that way on a night like tonight. @heathergraf82 Just drove from lake lure to asheville...a TON of standing water on hwy 64 in henderson county, & even I-26. Be careful out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 wake up robert!! TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1014 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GAFFNEY... EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1045 PM EST * AT 1013 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COWPENS... OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... THICKETTY... GAFFNEY... EARL AND BLACKSBURG... PATTERSON SPRINGS AND GROVER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Robert is going to get hit with this storm about to cross the boarder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 EDIT: Let me take back what I said after looking into things. SPC disco is one of low confidence but the shear is definitely very high and the QLCS seems well established now. Still may get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 After being outside the air just didn't quite have "the feel" to me. Obviously that isn't very scientific but feeling wise I was leaning bust and then to come home and see the hatching gone kind of shows where this is going. Perhaps I will still be proven wrong. I use the air feeling test all the time with amazing success, whatever works right... You are correct though in that it just feels stable outside, almost chilly. One curveball though is the very high shear, kind of unusual to here the word extreme from the spc when referring to it. I was expecting more discrete development ahead of the front by now, but not seeing it. The SPC obviously saw that too leading up to this event as you don't usually get a long tracker out of a banded segment or convective line, and they mentioned the possibility of a few strong and possibly long tracked ones. Any-who, no expert on this, actually just a novice, but is this the mesolow on the leeside of the Apps over the upstate? BV looks intriguing to the se of the GSP site and leads me to believe it is, as does reflectivity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Anyone know what the chances are that the rotation makes it up to here? (Southern Alexander County On HWY 16) Would like to plan to move to a shelter ahead of time if the rotation were to continue. It seems like its moving NE. but at the current track, I can't exactly tell if its gonna reach us here.. or the main line will pass here before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I use the air feeling test all the time with amazing success, whatever works right... You are correct though in that it just feels stable outside, almost chilly. One curveball though is the very high shear, kind of unusual to here the word extreme from the spc when referring to it. I was expecting more discrete development ahead of the front by now, but not seeing it. The SPC obviously saw that too leading up to this event as you don't usually get a long tracker out of a banded segment or convective line, and they mentioned the possibility of a few strong and possibly long tracked ones. Any-who, no expert on this, actually just a novice, but is this the mesolow on the leeside of the Apps over the upstate? BV looks intriguing to the se of the GSP site and leads me to believe it is, as does reflectivity... yeah I edited my post after looking into things but "the feel" factor still stands. Discrete development is lacking but still warnings going out along the QLCS so TORs still possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Just go throw some dirt up in the air like that dude did on Twister.... Thats what I do yeah I edited my post after looking into things but "the feel" factor still stands. Discrete development is lacking but still warnings going out along the QLCS so TORs still possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 That line came through here with only a little lightning, but had torrential rains and winds of at least 60mph for a few mins. Looks like we'll see light to moderate rain for the next few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Anyone know what the chances are that the rotation makes it up to here? (Southern Alexander County On HWY 16) Would like to plan to move to a shelter ahead of time if the rotation were to continue. It seems like its moving NE. but at the current track, I can't exactly tell if its gonna reach us here.. or the main line will pass here before then. Should be ok given a decent structure, rotation looks to stay well to your south as the heavy line passes you. Stay tuned to your weather radio or nws outlet in case any warnings are issued, as that will give you a couple minutes to bunker down if the situation warrants. But at-least from what I am observing, the area of greatest concern is going to be along the 77 corridor between CAE and CLT over the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Just go throw some dirt up in the air like that dude did on Twister.... Thats what I do haha that only works for me with snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Tornado watch up to counties just to the west. Wonder if anything will go up for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Should be ok given a decent structure, rotation looks to stay well to your south as the heavy line passes you. Stay tuned to your weather radio or nws outlet in case any warnings are issued, as that will give you a couple minutes to bunker down if the situation warrants. But at-least from what I am observing, the area of greatest concern is going to be along the 77 corridor between CAE and CLT over the next 30 minutes. I'm seeing the same thing. Check out the bow and it's orientation coming up toward Mecklenburg,Gaston and espeacilly Union County. Staright line winds will be getting everyones attention at the very least in this area soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Haven't been able to find any hail reports out of any of these storms. Anybody foresee that changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 4.49 is the updated storm total...I got a long day tomorrow so I'm signing off. Stay safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Haven't been able to find any hail reports out of any of these storms. Anybody foresee that changing? Very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 haha that only works for me with snow forecasts. hey these storms coming our way looks like we might get the lesser of the deal if everything is moving northeast the "bad" stuff could go above us? the storms below york and cleveland co. are not as impressive with the wind shear. unless its suppose to be even more unstable here richmond co is barely on the edge of the Tor. watch. whats ur thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Haven't been able to find any hail reports out of any of these storms. Anybody foresee that changing? Doubtful shallow storms equal no hail usually......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 your'e about to get some heavy duty rates. I'm just hoping for an inch total here, thats about what I was expecting. I knew there would be one heck of a gradient. 2.3" in Northern Clev County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Appears instability is advecting northward. There is some weak MLCAPE now nosing north into SW NC and SC ahead of the line. MUCAPES up to 500 J/kg now.. On the MUCAPE image for those not familiar, the shading is the lifted parcel level. If it is white then its basically a surface parcel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Effective shear is extreme... 70kts! Effective helicity is just as extreme.. over 700 m2/s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 What is the significance in looking at most unstable cape in this scenario compared to mixed layer? Couple hours old, but great read of of RAH tonight for those who missed it... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 915 PM TUESDAY... TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE WEDGE FRONT SURGED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH EARLIER TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT SURFACE-OR-NEARLY-SO-BASED INSTABILITY... ALBEIT WEAK -- REMAINS UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC... IN POLEWARD-RESTRICTING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT 02Z. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME YET TO ADVECT THAT HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND RESULTANT WEAK BUOYANCY INTO THE RAH CWA -- BETWEEN 04-06Z INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT; 06-08Z INVOF US HWY 1 CORRIDOR (TRIANGLE); AND 08-12Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN -- SINCE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AND HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OWING TO ISALLOBARIC FLOW TOWARD A MESOLOW/PRESSURE FALL CENTER NEAR KGSP. THAT VERY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... HOWEVER... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF A SSW 55 TO 60 KT LLJ AT H85 AND ASSOCIATED STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE PER THE GSO RAOB AND KGSP VWP... WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WELL ABOVE VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND... WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE THAT BEARS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG IT/S LENGTH -- DRIVEN MOSTLY BY MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN THE DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT IT RIDES -- AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN KFFC AND KGSP RADAR DATA AND ALREADY PRODUCED POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN THOSE CWA/S. THE MORE PROBLEMATIC ASPECT OF THE FORECAST REMAINS WHAT... IF ANY... MORE CELLULAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. MANY OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTED SUCH PRE-FRONTAL/SQUALL LINE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM EASTERN FL/GA... CENTRAL SC... TO SOUTHERN NC BY NOW. THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED... AND IS LIKELY A FUNCTION OF THE TONGUE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND CAPPING INVERSION IN THAT REGION PER 00Z KTLH AND KCHS RAOBS (AND MAY BE TRACEABLE BACK TO SOUTH TX AND LA YESTERDAY)... BETWEEN THE DEEP WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND LEADING SQUALL LINE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER PLUME OF HIGH MID LEVEL RH EXTENDING AND SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS FROM EAST OF KCHS NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NC. WE WILL MONITOR THE LATTER AXIS OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KMYR AND KILM... BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND AHEAD OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELD FOR AWHILE AT BAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SE SURFACE FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS AS OF THIS WRITING... HOWEVER... THAT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE DEEP WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BE FINALLY SUPPORTING SOME WEAK PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF KCLT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... SUSPECT AN UPSWING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IN THE AREAS AND DURING THE TIMES NOTED IN PARAGRAPH TWO... AS THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTENING INTERCEPTS THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING LOW LEVEL THETA-E/WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS. -MWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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