yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 wind picking up air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 715 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... PICKENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY * AT 710 PM EST...A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL PART OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. AUTOMATED GAUGES INDICATE THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE ARE AS HIGH AS AN INCH AN HOUR. * MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ON TOP OF THE 2 TO 4 INCHES...OR MORE...THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS...PARTICULARLY OF STREAMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALONG THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD RIVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2102.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 759... VALID 010047Z - 010215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 759 CONTINUES. AREAS NORTH OF CURRENT WW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. AN AREA OF STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE /EAST/ OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE THIS EVENING...AS THE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS MINIMIZING CAPE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...LIGHTNING HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE EVEN WITH THE ENHANCED BUT LOW-TOPPED BAND NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR NEAR A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...AND THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST VERY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE LEE TROUGH...CONVECTION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ADVANCES ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. ..KERR.. 12/01/2010 ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yoda beat me to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Everybody dropped back to 5% tor in 0100 OTLK.. 10% and the hatching are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Everybody dropped back to 5% tor in 0100 OTLK.. 10% and the hatching are gone Yes, and it seems to be mainly from the uncertainty in instability. I still favor more instability across central and eastern NC where the most likely threat of a few tornadoes will be but the damaging wind threat continues and actually has been shifted a bit to the north. Nothing to sneeze about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The heaviest batch moving through right now. VERY heavy rain and extreme gusts just west/northwest of Greenville. I am in the tornado warning area also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 As is the story this year... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SERN GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... STORMS EXTEND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NC INTO CNTRL GA AS OF 01Z...WITH VERY FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S F. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS ARE NOT ENCOURAGING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...A VERY POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING EXTREME OVERNIGHT. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES...CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO CNTRL VA BY 12Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE NON-ZERO SURFACE BASED CAPE EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO CAPE FROM CNTRL VA NWD...TRUE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS UNKNOWN AND MAY BEST BE APPROXIMATED IN REAL TIME BY INCORPORATING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INTO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ..JEWELL.. 12/01/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 some of the wind gusts here have probably brought down a few limbs. Still waiting on the rain to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Just had a two minute sky falling down pour some of the wind gusts here have probably brought down a few limbs. Still waiting on the rain to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I was not totally accurate in my last post. We had numerous days this summer with sbcapes in the 2-4k range, but no trigger. Know we have an extreme trigger but can't find the gun. The high shear-low instab scenario has played out several times this fall and we have seen the result, underperforming slgt hatches, at-least in central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The heaviest batch moving through right now. VERY heavy rain and extreme gusts just west/northwest of Greenville. I am in the tornado warning area also. I'm keeping up with your area blooey-j. My kid is there at school....well, right now she's out with friends. I've been updating her via fb. Technology is something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm hearing the first heavy rain drops. My internet will go out (satellite) and I'ma hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I tell you what, that sloth of rain from the top of the state down to Tifton, GA is putting down some rain. I have not looked at the rain gauge, but it's a cow + flat rock here right now. Hopefully it will hold together for your boys up in the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 A deluge for the past half hour. Gusty winds and 60 degrees. Sump pump is running in the basement! Otter Creek will be over its banks by now, and it's definitely no time to be out driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 As is the story this year... take a look at the soundings... GSO has forecast MUCAPE of about 300 J/kg and CHS has over 1,000 J/kg. GSO is more than sufficient with the forcing and shear that will be coming in later. There arent any soundings in central SC so its not the best call to me at least. Its also going over the higher terrain right now so It is kinda expected to see it weaken some right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I've had some drizzle and the wind has picked up a little bit, but nothing really much going on right now. Maybe this is literally the calm before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Crazy difference between you and me in the same county A deluge for the past half hour. Gusty winds and 60 degrees. Sump pump is running in the basement! Otter Creek will be over its banks by now, and it's definitely no time to be out driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 4.22 at my house in Midtown Atl. Still raining. Flooding is now occurring throughout the city. some roads were impassible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I was not totally accurate in my last post. We had numerous days this summer with sbcapes in the 2-4k range, but no trigger. Know we have an extreme trigger but can't find the gun. The high shear-low instab scenario has played out several times this fall and we have seen the result, underperforming slgt hatches, at-least in central and eastern NC. This........this makes at least 3-4 of these type of events and so far they have been lambs not lions..... While this one is still in the wait and see catagory the pattern seems to be the same as the others and well meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 wind picking up air grats? is the rain wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmglockson Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have read in several places that the radar is not going to be nearly as impressive as it passes over the mountainous regions of our states... it seems to me like ya'll are losing hope over something that is to be expected with a storm system like this. As it passes into the lower elevations of the piedmont I believe the radar will start to look more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 take a look at the soundings... GSO has forecast MUCAPE of about 300 J/kg and CHS has over 1,000 J/kg. GSO is more than sufficient with the forcing and shear that will be coming in later. There arent any soundings in central SC so its not the best call to me at least. Its also going over the higher terrain right now so It is kinda expected to see it weaken some right now. MHX's 0z sounding was very stable, which is to be expected given the maritime modification of the air today/tonight on a se fetch off the cool water. Saw GSO's and it showed mu of around 200 at 0z, and ml all but absent. 64/61 here in PGV, not where I would like to be this time of year heading into a potential event, even with extreme shear. Just inpatient and frustrated I guess after what was not a svr weather season here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Crazy difference between you and me in the same county crazy difference between western Rutherford and south central Cleveland. His area probably has atleast 55" perhaps 60" by the time this night is done. compared to 31.5" so. cntrl CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 MHX's 0z sounding was very stable, which is to be expected given the maritime modification of the air today/tonight on a se fetch off the cool water. Saw GSO's and it showed mu of around 200 at 0z, and ml all but absent. 64/61 here in PGV, not where I would like to be this time of year heading into a potential event, even with extreme shear. Just inpatient and frustrated I guess after what was not a svr weather season here this year. I cant speak for dissapointment down there as I live in the maritime influence 24/7 here on LI but something is telling me now is not the time to gripe about this system. You dont want 75 over 60, you want 65-68 over 63 or so for the very low LCL. The shear profiles are going to be extreme. Any little instability and kick could really get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The line is getting smaller......... crazy difference between western Rutherford and south central Cleveland. His area probably has atleast 55" perhaps 60" by the time this night is done. compared to 31.5" so. cntrl CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The line is getting smaller......... your'e about to get some heavy duty rates. I'm just hoping for an inch total here, thats about what I was expecting. I knew there would be one heck of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmglockson Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 WFUS52 KGSP 010202 TORGSP SCC001-007-045-047-059-010230- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0047.101201T0202Z-101201T0230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 902 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 930 PM EST * AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DUE WEST... OR 10 MILES NORTH OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DONALDS... WARE SHOALS AND HONEA PATH... PRINCETON... HICKORY TAVERN AND BOYD MILL POND... FORK SHOALS... GRAY COURT...FOUNTAIN INN AND ORA... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF... ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING... THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2. LAT...LON 3452 8242 3473 8222 3462 8195 3418 8241 3438 8248 TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 216DEG 42KT 3434 8237 MOORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I cant speak for dissapointment down there as I live in the maritime influence 24/7 here on LI but something is telling me now is not the time to gripe about this system. You dont want 75 over 60, you want 65-68 over 63 or so for the very low LCL. The shear profiles are going to be extreme. Any little instability and kick could really get something going. Interesting...... Looking at the surface.....particularly in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 If the WRF is correct, a convective band should be popping near CAE in the next hour or so. -RN here, which kind of stinks as I was hoping to preserve as much instab as possible. I'm still waiting patiently for the line to arrive..lol got a little crazy here...wife went nuts grabbin mattress and such....unreal rain with these bands!! no tornado yet My daughter now doing homework on her mattress in the hallway...LOL Think the worst is gone now, had some pretty tall gusts of 40mph+ but dam the rain! Looks like we will get at least 2.5 out of this now. Listening to EMS radio... trees blocking a road 2 miles from here!! Glad to see she made herself comfortable wind picking up air :lmao: some of the wind gusts here have probably brought down a few limbs. Still waiting on the rain to arrive. The line is just to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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