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Late Season SVR Threat (Nov 30th - Dec 1st)


WeatherNC

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50% chance of 2 or more TOR and 30% chance of 1 or more strong TOR (EF2+) with the new watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 759

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

235 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

SPARTANBURG SOUTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 758...

DISCUSSION...QLCS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN GA WILL CONTINUE

EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPSTREAM

IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS

HAVE ALLOWED WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN GA TO WARM THROUGH

THE 70S...AND A 40-50+ LLJ SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF

THIS BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE 18Z FFC SOUNDING...AREA VWPS AND

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING

WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

...MEAD

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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0146 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND

SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE

POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...POTENTIALLY STRONG...AND

DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC

REGIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG

AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE

WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK

WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND

OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING

SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE

WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA

WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS

TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 11/30/2010

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1.65 inches of rain has fallen along the eastern escarpement with the main event coming in tonight. The headwaters of the Catawba along with the feeder streams are already starting to elevate over the rock bed. Another inch or so and I would expect a significant rise in the river levels.

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TIME SENSITIVE:

Somebody confirm a "couplet" of sorts on both Peachtree and Greer Radars please. Its over the East Dawson County/West Hall County area. I'm fixin to drive that way and check it out but it will probly fall apart before I get there.

Not a classic couplet but red touching green for sure. Another one further south.

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TIME SENSITIVE:

Somebody confirm a "couplet" of sorts on both Peachtree and Greer Radars please. Its over the East Dawson County/West Hall County area. I'm fixin to drive that way and check it out but it will probly fall apart before I get there.

Not a classic couplet but red touching green for sure. Another one further south.

I do not see anything that looks like a couplet at this time.

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Got about an inch in about 20 minutes with a lot of minor street flooding, not much wind and one rumble of thunder. OK, but once again bad timing screws us out of the really good stuff. Saving grace, got .56 yesterday, a lot of moderate rain downstream, will likely end up with over 2".

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An update for you, JesusSaves ... and the folks in the Piedmont:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY... WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 352 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING... WHILE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 6 PM EST. WHILE NO WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR REGION...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT ARE ADVISED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. STAY TUNED TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF CONTINUOUS WEATHER INFORMATION SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR A LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATION. HAVE YOUR ACTION PLAN READY AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.

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An update for you, JesusSaves ... and the folks in the Piedmont:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY... WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 352 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING... WHILE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 6 PM EST. WHILE NO WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR REGION...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT ARE ADVISED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. STAY TUNED TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF CONTINUOUS WEATHER INFORMATION SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR A LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATION. HAVE YOUR ACTION PLAN READY AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.

I am one county out of that looks like I am in the clear ;). JK it seems they want to be sure to have an early jump with it being a night situation.

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WFUS52 KFFC 302112

TORFFC

GAC035-151-217-302145-

/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0036.101130T2112Z-101130T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

412 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 1 MILE

SOUTH OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

NORTHERN PARTS OF JACKSON...JENKINSBURG AND PORTERDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE

A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT

UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING

FOR GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8403 3357 8400 3368 8392 3347 8378

3344 8381 3344 8382 3342 8383 3322 8409

3327 8411 3330 8409 3331 8413 3340 8416

TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 226DEG 31KT 3329 8409

$$

post-139-0-04244600-1291151990.png

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Was just about to post this, first one weakened but still strong rotation, and a second one to the NW of that first couplet looks to be taking over.

Yeah looks like you are correct and the new couplet is rather large. Watching to see if this spin up is more intense.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0324 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...WESTERN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 759...

VALID 302124Z - 302300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 759 CONTINUES.

A PRE-FRONTAL QLCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS GA

AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN OCCASIONAL ROTATIONAL

STRUCTURES ALL DAY...WITH STRONGEST SIGNATURE NOW EXTENDING FROM

BUTTS TO JACKSON COUNTIES GA. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS

WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT /NOW ROUGHLY FROM

ATHENS GA TO GREENVILLE SC/ WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND

CONVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED. BROKEN CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE

BOUNDARY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL

FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW

TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING.

..HART.. 11/30/2010

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2101.html

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