Late Season SVR Threat (Nov 30th - Dec 1st)

[WeatherNC]

Spin off from the Nov disco thread, not too excited given the overall performance and verification this year. High shear, marginal instab, and we know how that goes. Regarding the weak wave-low traversing the front and enhancing the svr potential in the warm sector, that may be the foci going through the overnight Tues, early am Weds, when things could get interesting, especially when considering the energy potential between the wedge along the apps and warm air fetch into central NC.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1055 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GULF COAST NEWD

INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE

GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

FORMIDABLE IMPULSE ALONG BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVEL FROM

AZ/MEXICO BORDER TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE SRN

APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE

SURFACE...OCCLUDED LOW WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING

FRONT REACHING THE APPALACHIANS/ERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY

NIGHT...SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.

THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD SRN MD/NRN VA/DC REGION BY 12Z

WEDNESDAY.

...ERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM

THE ERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY

NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN

POOR...MUCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS FAR N

AS ERN/CNTRL VA AS THE IN-SITU COLD WEDGE ERODES TUESDAY

EVENING/NIGHT.

QLCS IS LIKELY AT 12Z TUESDAY FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO THE MOBILE BAY

REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF

TUESDAY INTO ERN TN...NWRN GA...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE A

45-55 KT SSWLY LLJ ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. EMBEDDED

LEWPS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO

THREATS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A REDUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS TO ESCALATE

AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/E OF THE APPALACHIANS... PARTICULARLY SC

NWD INTO ERN/CNTRL VA. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DCVA

ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK THAT AIDS IN MORE

NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG UVV...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY

LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL

ALL BE FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT QLCS SEVERE MODES. HAVE EXPANDED

LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THE

CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF ERN/CNTRL VA.

..RACY.. 11/29/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 2357Z (6:57PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[WeatherNC]

QLCS is a Quasi Linear Convective System btw...

[FoothillsNC]

QLCS is a Quasi Linear Convective System btw...

I'm starting to get a little worried if the meso low forms, which looks likely, then anyone near that and just east could be in for some ef0 and ef1 surprise tomorrow night. Really bad timing, and the public probably isn't too alerted to this yet.

[tmagan]

Damage reported in Yazoo City via TWC.

[tmagan]

The storm north of Port Gibson, MS is showing a BWER.

[yoda]

I see SPC issued a Public Severe Weather OTLK for tonight for LA/MS/W AL

[Bozart]

Damage reported in Yazoo City via TWC.

Man, those folks can't catch a break. They got blasted by a big tornado back in April.

[downeastnc]

QLCS is a Quasi Linear Convective System btw...

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/ICSvr3/lesson29/player.html

Good stuff

[Cheeznado]

Been a fair amount of damage in MS tonight- based on what I am seeing it might get interesting in parts of north GA tomorrow provided the wedge can break, at the very least some pretty good thunderstorms and heavy rain likely.

[WeatherNC]

10% TVS hatch up for portions of SC, NC and VA. Centered along a line from roughy Columbia to Richmond...

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0640 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO

THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E FROM THE PLNS/MS

VLY TO THE GRT LKS/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE FURTHER

AMPLIFIES ALONG THE E CST. THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT

TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER TX SWEEPS ENE

ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES AND TN VLY.

SRN PART OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE E

ACROSS THE TN VLY/CNTRL GULF CST TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS

TONIGHT...WHILE NRN PART MOVES MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE OH VLY/LWR

GRT LKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NWD ADVECTION OF MID TO UPR 60S F

DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS

ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR A STRONG

TORNADO OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED FROM GA NEWD INTO

THE CAROLINAS AND VA AS DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SUBSTANTIALLY

INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TX UPR VORT.

...CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

SW-NE QLCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E ACROSS THE ERN GULF CST

STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD /WITH 40-50

KT SLY NEAR-SFC FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO 60 KT SWLY AT 500 MB/

AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ SHOULD SUPPORT

A CONTINUED THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WIND AND

SPORADIC TORNADOES DESPITE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES/MODEST SFC

HEATING.

DEEP ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE QLCS BEGINNING LATE

THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING TONIGHT/EARLY WED. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME

STRENGTHENING AND/OR INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM

AS IT REACHES THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND A

WARMING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PARTS OF GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL

CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF QLCS...ALONG

RESIDUAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM NW-MOVING COASTAL

FRONT/WARM FRONT.

SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT

INTO VA AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT

INCREASING MID/UPR LVL ASCENT WITH MOISTENING/CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW

AND UPLIFT PROVIDED BY SFC BOUNDARIES TOGETHER SUGGEST GOOD

LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD /60 KT SLY LOW

LVL FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO 70 KT SSWLY AT 500

MB/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS/

SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES.

CONVECTION ON THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LIKELY WILL

BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT STILL MAY POSE AN ISOLD SVR WIND/TORNADO

THREAT GIVEN COMBINATION OF PW AOA 1.50 INCHES...STRONG FORCING FOR

ASCENT...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN MD/VA...AND VERY STRONG LOW LVL SHEAR.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/30/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 1257Z (7:57AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

To bad this is going to be a nocturnal event as it has the potential of being one of the more sig svr episodes this year around here.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND

SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. REGIONAL

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN GA INTO UPSTATE

SC WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION EXTENDING

FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/LA. THE

CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A

150KT JET ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING

UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL FORCING ALONG A COLD

FRONT WITH 50-60KT 850MB SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING MOISTURE

NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVER THE

FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST APPROACHES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY

FLOW THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE

INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE

COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C TO

-3C AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 300-500 J/KG FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH

THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHEAR VALUES

CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2

AND BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED

CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5

INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IS LIKELY AND WILL AID IN

DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

SPC WRF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A

SQUALL LINE/QLCS EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF DISCRETE

CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE...LIKE THE SPC WRF

SUGGESTS WILL HAPPEN...THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE INCLUDING

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA

DURING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

[WeatherNC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

644 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT:

THE MEAN H5 TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY

AS THE H5 LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN MOVES NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY

00Z...AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH

OVER NM/TX EJECTS EASTWARD INTO LA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS

WILL HELP PROPEL THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EASTWARD TO THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z...WITH THE WEDGE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH

OF THE AREA RETREATING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS A WARM FRONT

THIS AFT/EVE. AFTER 00Z...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH

THROUGH THE MIDWEST (ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN H5 TROUGH) WILL

FURTHER INVIGORATE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DEEP

SOUTH...WITH THE RESULTING WAVE GOING NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE TILT AS IT

LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND WESTERN CAROLINAS/VIRGINIAS

BY 12Z WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED CENTRAL NC

PRIOR TO 12Z WED.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:

SEVERE WEATHER IS ALREADY OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS

MORNING OVER MS/LA...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGING TORNADOES. THE

LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NECESSARY

INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE COMING TOGETHER

ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE

EXCELLENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED

WHEN IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY

OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 60-120 METER H5

HEIGHT FALLS JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG

A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE

NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING

250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS APPROACHING OR REACHING THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY

WILL BE MARGINAL IN OVERALL MAGNITUDE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND

THE PRESENCE OF EXCELLENT DYNAMICS...IT IS NEVERTHELESS

DISCONCERTING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...

HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE ABOVE IN MIND...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR

AREA IS UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. EXPECT THE

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER

SUNSET THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT

MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOC/W A

STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LARGE

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT

OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT

THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. -VINCENT

[Amos83]

Should be a very interesting night for sure!

Quick question... when was the last time the CLT area and poinst east where under a moderate risk for SVR? 10% chance of tornados seems high for this area and I would not be suprised at all to see us upgrading to a moderate risk later on.

[janetjanet998]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 758

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

745 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA

THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL

200 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SW-NE QLCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD FROM AL INTO GA.

MODEST HEATING OF MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW E OF SQLN MAY

INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER SE AL AND THE FL

PANHANDLE. SHALLOW WEDGE BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGING SLOWLY N ACROSS N

GA...MARKING NRN EDGE OF ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE

SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS DOWNSTREAM FROM POTENT TX SHORTWAVE

IMPULSE.

[WXinCanton]

looks like most of metro ATL under a tornado watch

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 758NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK745 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010TORNADO WATCH 758 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSGAC007-015-021-035-037-045-053-055-057-061-063-067-077-079-083-089-093-095-097-099-113-115-121-129-143-145-149-151-153-159-169-171-177-193-197-199-201-207-215-217-223-225-231-233-239-243-247-249-253-255-259-261-263-269-273-285-289-293-295-307-302000-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0758.101130T1345Z-101130T2000Z/GA. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBAKER BARTOW BIBBBUTTS CALHOUN CARROLLCHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEECLAY CLAYTON COBBCOWETA CRAWFORD DADEDEKALB DOOLY DOUGHERTYDOUGLAS EARLY FAYETTEFLOYD FULTON GORDONHARALSON HARRIS HEARDHENRY HOUSTON JASPERJONES LAMAR LEEMACON MARION MERIWETHERMILLER MONROE MUSCOGEENEWTON PAULDING PEACHPIKE POLK QUITMANRANDOLPH ROCKDALE SCHLEYSEMINOLE SPALDING STEWARTSUMTER TALBOT TAYLORTERRELL TROUP TWIGGSUPSON WALKER WEBSTER

[RevDodd]

Should be a very interesting night for sure!

10% chance of tornadoes seems high for this area and I would not be surprised at all to see us upgrading to a moderate risk later on.

Agreed. I checked the reports last night and it looked like a chance for some gusty front-related winds.

And are they still talking about low-capped storms? If so, isn't the risk of EF2 or better really unusual? The low-capped twisters I recall around here rarely topped EF1.

At any rate, looks like a lot of industrious folks who put up their holiday decorations after Thanksgiving will be back at it tomorrow.

[Amos83]

Agreed. I checked the reports last night and it looked like a chance for some gusty front-related winds.

And are they still talking about low-capped storms? If so, isn't the risk of EF2 or better really unusual? The low-capped twisters I recall around here rarely topped EF1.

At any rate, looks like a lot of industrious folks who put up their holiday decorations after Thanksgiving will be back at it tomorrow.

Well I'm one of those industrious folks... took by 6 hours to get up all my lights, trees, and decor so I'll be pretty upset if they get damaged tonight. Hopefully I wont have to worry about any hail. Just thinking about hail stones pounding my lights gets by blood boiling a little.

I would think EF2+ tornados are extremely rare with low capped storms.

[WeatherNC]

These are the top 15 analogs based on the 0z GFS

And the storm reports associated with the analogs

1988112812, 2000121712, 1996110900 and 2008021818 were responsible for the majority of these reports in the SE

[RevDodd]

These are the top 15 analogs based on the 0z GFS

1988112812, 2000121712, 1996110900 and 2008021818 were responsible for the majority of these reports in the SE

Good stuff! Though I see two little red dots (which I assume are funnel reports) over IMBY.

[eyewall]

If only this were going to happen in daylight. Either way it is exciting to be sure. Doesn't look like I will be sleeping much tonight!

[Brian]

Atlanta Radar.

Atl Radar

[downeastnc]

If only this were going to happen in daylight. Either way it is exciting to be sure. Doesn't look like I will be sleeping much tonight!

I will be right here with ya, Gonna be a memorable outbreak, at least 8 tornados yesterday and warning now starting to go in AL and the number of those should go up. Then tonight things look pretty good for us to get hammered. I fear this is one of those times where there will unfortunately be a lot of ground truth to those doppler indicated tornados

[downeastnc]

Should be a very interesting night for sure!

Quick question... when was the last time the CLT area and poinst east where under a moderate risk for SVR? 10% chance of tornados seems high for this area and I would not be suprised at all to see us upgrading to a moderate risk later on.

RAH also seems to think a mod risk upgrade seems possible I cant remember the last time a part of NC was in Mod risk I KNOW it hasnt been in the last year lol but seems like once in 2009 maybe the spring we had one.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:

SEVERE WEATHER IS ALREADY OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS

MORNING OVER MS/LA...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGING TORNADOES. THE

LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NECESSARY

INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE COMING TOGETHER

ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE

EXCELLENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED

WHEN IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY

OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 60-120 METER H5

HEIGHT FALLS JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG

A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE

NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING

250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS APPROACHING OR REACHING THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY

WILL BE MARGINAL IN OVERALL MAGNITUDE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND

THE PRESENCE OF EXCELLENT DYNAMICS...IT IS NEVERTHELESS

DISCONCERTING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...

HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE ABOVE IN MIND...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR

AREA IS UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. EXPECT THE

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER

SUNSET THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT

MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOC/W A

STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LARGE

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT

OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT

THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. -VINCENT

[lilj4425]

GFS dumps it on Upstate SC and western NC at hr6. Hr18 looks like we're going to have some serious flooding problems in the mountains. Central-eastern TN gets a good amount of rain this run too.

[eyewall]

RAH also seems to think a mod risk upgrade seems possible I cant remember the last time a part of NC was in Mod risk I KNOW it hasnt been in the last year lol but seems like once in 2009 maybe the spring we had one.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:

SEVERE WEATHER IS ALREADY OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS

MORNING OVER MS/LA...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGING TORNADOES. THE

LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NECESSARY

INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE COMING TOGETHER

ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE

EXCELLENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED

WHEN IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY

OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 60-120 METER H5

HEIGHT FALLS JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG

A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE

NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING

250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS APPROACHING OR REACHING THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY

WILL BE MARGINAL IN OVERALL MAGNITUDE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND

THE PRESENCE OF EXCELLENT DYNAMICS...IT IS NEVERTHELESS

DISCONCERTING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...

HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE ABOVE IN MIND...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR

AREA IS UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. EXPECT THE

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER

SUNSET THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT

MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOC/W A

STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LARGE

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT

OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT

THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. -VINCENT

Brandon was definitely excited in his disco! He knows his **** so I trust his word pretty well. He is the one who guided us to nearly seeing a TOR at the end of October when we chased a supercell north of Raleigh.

[FoothillsNC]

I just went from 49 to 54 degrees in the last 15 minutes. The wedge front just moved through here. I was skeptical against breaking out into the warm sector here, but not anymore. Being so close to a tight gradient this is going to be interesting later today and tonight.

[WeatherNC]

Sun is out here in Greenville Clearing off to the west should give at-least a couple more hours of heating. Forecast high is 71, and sitting at 66.3 here at the 11 o'clock hour.

[downeastnc]

Sun is out here in Greenville Clearing off to the west should give at-least a couple more hours of heating. Forecast high is 71, and sitting at 66.3 here at the 11 o'clock hour.

Need this thing to speed up or slow down right now timing is horrible for us here......nothing worse than tornado warnings popping off at 4 am.........

[Brick Tamland]

I think I might be getting a call from Greg Fishel in the middle of the night.

[RevDodd]

mid-day Update from Raleigh NWS...

"WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND PARTIAL HEATING OCCURRING TO OUR S-SE...CENTRAL NC WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT APPEARED TO BE LACKING A FEW DAYS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PATTERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAVE NOTED THAT THE NAM MODEL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE TRENDED MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THUS INCREASING THREAT FOR TORNADOES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTED THE STRONG UPPER JET (150+KT) CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES BY TONIGHT PLACING OUR REGION IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR ENHANCED LIFT. ALSO...POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT SHOWED UP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS YESTERDAY MORNING HAS TRANSLATED ACROSS THE GULF AND SHOWS UP AT 12Z OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS POCKET OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS AND ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FINALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DERIVED SUGGEST PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IMMEDIATELY WEST-SW OF OUR REGION. IN THE NEAR TERM...MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS SOONER DUE TO NORTH-NW PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT AND TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE WEST-NW AS APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL NOT OCCUR THERE UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. OTHERWISE STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT SHAPING UP FOR CENTRAL NC TONIGHT.