usedtobe Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 http://voices.washin...ember.html#more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 thanks Wes. Always appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The European model ensemble mean supports the operational European model which is very bullish on the storm. The GFS and its ensembles tend to shear the system out and keep it too weak to produce any snow. Both camps are equally likely. That said, in the past the GFS has sometimes tended to shear systems too much keeping the any low too weak to produce any snow. The threat certainly is worth watching. I'm not a fan of Miller B type systems, there are too many things that can go wrong. When it get into the 72 range, I'll be more excited. Also if the GFS starts evolving towards it's solution. If the ultimate solution is somewhere between the euro and GFS, I don't like our chances. That said, it's too early to know which model grouping is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Last night's euro brought the threat of the Dec 5th storm back and the 12Z run of the nam now has trended towards a storm. The 03Z sref runs also showed quite a few members that would threaten the dc area. It's too early to whether the storm will be a dud like on last night's GFS, a euro dusting for DC but better snow for midlo or the nam which looks like it would hit my house but the NAM would rock my and Ji's world. Stay tuned for another CWG article. It might be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Wes, do we need to worry about temp issues now? Or are we fine as depicted by the NAM. I know its far out and we can't take this verbatim, but the 850 low track is a little too close for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 yea looks like the theme is the models are picking back up on this storm as we get closer big difference from 12z nam to 06z gfs at 500. nam does not shear it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 so you put some weight in the nam wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 yea looks like the theme is the models are picking back up on this storm as we get closer big difference from 12z nam to 06z gfs at 500. nam does not shear it out Yeah no doubt. I didn't look at soundings but 1000-850 critical thicknesses do support some snow for DC it appears. The 850 low looks to go overhead, so I'm not sure if it's ideal, but alas it is the 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yeah no doubt. I didn't look at soundings but 1000-850 critical thicknesses do support some snow for DC it appears. The 850 low looks to go overhead, so I'm not sure if it's ideal, but alas it is the 84 hr NAM. I think the 850 would shift southeastward as the system east of the mountains as would the surface low. Something about CAV trajectories and all that stuff if I remember correctly. There still is a good jet that should keep the 500 vort digging some. I guess it's possible we get dry slotted if the model were correct. Of course, it'sa 84 hr NAM so it's probably still not right and the shortwave that produces the storm isn't even in the CONUS yet. Probably the safest bet is to just go towards last night euro and mention the possibility of light snow in a forecast for dc and then wait to waffle either way as the models converge on a solution. The individual sref members suggest that anything from the NAm solution to a miss is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm feeling stoked about starting out the first half of Dec in the chill East. It's nice to have a seasonal forecast start out on the right foot for once. Let's put it this way, if the MA doesn't cash in during the first 2 weeks of Dec, wait til Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Am I the only one getting an Operation Aborted notification when I click on the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Am I the only one getting an Operation Aborted notification when I click on the link? works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Am I the only one getting an Operation Aborted notification when I click on the link? It's an old article anyway. I might have another one today but it wouldn't say anything that people here don't already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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