phlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Last night's GFS is torching I-95 on Tuesday, with mid to upper 70's before a cold front crosses the region (the best thunderstorm action is down in the South and Southeast with the GFS). The Euro is suggesting an early morning frontal passage with a band of chilled rain along and just behind the front. The Euro is probably 12 hours ahead of the GFS (which is rare) and as a result of the frontal boundary passage early in the day, temps would probably top out in the low/mid 60's pre-front. Both models suggest a rainy start to Monday as a warm front lifts through. We could have high temperatures on Monday evening across Philly (low 60's?), with a rather mild Monday night before Tuesday's "torch." Go GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Some of te models yesterday 12z were also hinting at a slp redeveloping off the Delmarva coast. Not sure what last nights 0z models showed? Not sure if we should keep the heat ( although only 1 day) and storm threat separate threads? Your show phlwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Some of te models yesterday 12z were also hinting at a slp redeveloping off the Delmarva coast. Not sure what last nights 0z models showed? Not sure if we should keep the heat ( although only 1 day) and storm threat separate threads? Your show phlwx The Euro tries to develop something on the 12z but it's pretty much is an open wave. IMO, it could just be a convective feedback issue as it looks like a big time severe event in Carolinas. FWIW, Euro says Monday PM will be warm (maybe near 70) before front crosses Monday night. 12z GFS is a Tuesday midday frontal passage in Philly with the potential for t-storms. I'll rename the thread for both the "heat" and the "potential" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12z GFS spikes temps. overnight Monday into Tuesday morning before the front gets through. That timing would suck, as we wouldn't even get one true torch day. Euro gives more hope for warmth later Monday, GEM maybe on Tuesday if the front is slower. Hmmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 euro really honing in on Monday as the torch day...+16 850's by evening with a SW wind. 70+ looks like a good bet IF we can get the warm front through in time....in early April that's tricky north and east of town but around the city it should happen. Front comes through either Tuesday AM (GFS) or Tuesday dinner (EURO) -- it's the difference between run of mill t-storm/rain or a potential strong/severe event. Also looks like Monday night will be warm -- 60ish maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 euro really honing in on Monday as the torch day...+16 850's by evening with a SW wind. 70+ looks like a good bet IF we can get the warm front through in time....in early April that's tricky north and east of town but around the city it should happen. Front comes through either Tuesday AM (GFS) or Tuesday dinner (EURO) -- it's the difference between run of mill t-storm/rain or a potential strong/severe event. Also looks like Monday night will be warm -- 60ish maybe? Yup, looks like a potential 30 degree temp. gradient across eastern PA on Monday. Here's hoping for one day of warmth! Looks like the front comes through too fast on Tuesday to support another warm day.....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 SREF mean has been trending warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 The timing of this front keeps getting pushed earlier, that definetely gives hope for a Monday torch across SC and SE PA. North of ABE, its going to be a battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I just noticed the 18z GFS is advertising an 850mb wind of 110mph at 09z Tuesday. I'm not sure how much of that mixes down to the surface, but if we do end up with strong storms, they could be rather windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 I just noticed the 18z GFS is advertising an 850mb wind of 110mph at 09z Tuesday. I'm not sure how much of that mixes down to the surface, but if we do end up with strong storms, they could be rather windy Down to just 80 kts on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Raw 12z NAM says 73 for Philly tomorrow PM. Wouldn't surprise to see a few mid or upper 70's in South Jersey and DE. These torch days can exceed expectations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 409 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011 ...MULTIPLE WIND RELATED HAZARDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY... STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA COMBINED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH STRONG WIND. DEZ002>004-MDZ020-NJZ021>025-027-040830- /O.NEW.KPHI.WI.Y.0006.110404T1700Z-110404T2200Z/ KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE... OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...WHARTON STATE FOREST 409 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE...A PORTION OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...WIND. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SCATTERED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF ANY NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. * TIMING...BEST CHANCE IS BETWEEN 2PM AND AND 5 PM WHEN TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE 70S. * IMPACTS...THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SMALL BRANCHES TO BREAK...AFFECT TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND ENHANCE THE RATE OF SPREAD OF ANY FINE FUEL FIRES. * OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM TUESDAY. THIS MAY NEED SOME SORT OF DETAILED HEADLINE INFORMATION STATEMENT IN FUTURE FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 61 is our forecast tomorrow...but the trend is usually that the pre-FROPA day is always forecast too cool, so 65 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Temp. looks to hit 80 out here in Motown tomorrow, followed by 45 and snow showers the next day. Ugh. At least the rest of the week looks to be warmer, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Little OT here, but picking up smoke from a factory fire, in Galloway Twp, on KDIX. Never seen smoke from a structure fire before, only our huge woods fires we get around here. Pretty much half of our county, and some from Burlington are en route to this fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 here be comin the warm front...expected high tomorrow of 74 then 50s rest of the way a lot heights getting squashed right along the US/Canada border through NE US this week on the GFS....i wanna see the 586 dm contour line hit Greenland already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Mt holly: POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STILL EXISTS NEAR 12Z TUE. WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS BL WINDS INCREASE AND IF THE WIND ADVY DOESNT VERIFY ON SUSTAINED OR GUST...THEN AM PRETTY CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO SEE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. TUESDAY...THE EC REALLY CHILLS MIDDAY AS IT POURS HERE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE FASTER EXITING. HAVE CAT POPS TUE MORNING AND TEMPS MAY RUN COLDER DURING MIDDAY THEN NOW FCST. PLEASE CONSIDER SPECIFIC Interesting... So basically, if winds don't live up to the advisories, they seem pretty confident that we'll see storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 heat buster coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Currently 70.0. Wish the sun was out, it would probably be in the upper 70's. Still feels good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 74 but now cloudy here in Villanova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Only 61 degrees here @ ABE with a NNW wind of 7 MPH...Warm front seems to have become hung up to the south of here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 will the boom booms survive the trek east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 78 here in Brookhaven was 77 in Ardmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 So, is this a "dirty" torch? 74 and overcast. Luckily the winds pumped in the warmth that the sun couldn't supply up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 So, is this a "dirty" torch? 74 and overcast. Luckily the winds pumped in the warmth that the sun couldn't supply up my way. Call it what you want, it feels nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 78 degrees here with sunny skies! Storms are still quite a ways off to the southwest, but I have confidence that they will hold together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Call it what you want, it feels nice outside. True. But I'm greedy.....I want 70s AND sun Plus.....windchills are probably in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nice day...funny how three days ago we had snow on the ground IMBY. 75>snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Only 61 degrees here @ ABE with a NNW wind of 7 MPH...Warm front seems to have become hung up to the south of here... Same here. 61 degrees, but even though we missed out on the 70s, it still feels nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 hit 76.7° at 4:30, now down to 75.1°. 30s tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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