Tuesday (edit: Monday) may end up a one day torch

[earthlight]

[Isotherm]

It will certainly feel much warmer than the past couple weeks as we transition from winter to spring, but in reality, temperatures the next 7-10 days will be near normal, a couple days above, and a couple below. Tomorrow's our torch day, probably a large range in temps from SW to NE. Long Island likely tops out in the low 60s late afternoon, with CNJ and PHL near 70 or higher.

Late week is about average, 55-60, but watch the Friday-Monday period for a potential stretch of crappy spring weather. PHL northeastward looks to be hung-up on the north side of the baroclinic zone, which as we know means clouds/fog/light rain, winds off the Atlantic at this time of year. Temps probably struggling through the upper 40s-low 50s through this 4 day period. Good deal of rain too, while folks to our south in the mid atlantic and Southeast will be warm and sunny next week. Masters could be downright hot w/ a day near 90.

So bottom line, definite improvement this week compared to the past couple, but I'm not seeing any out of the ordinary spring torches (80+) or prolonged warmth for more than 1 day. Basically we'll be riding the battle zone over the next 7-10 days with a lot of clouds and days w/ easterly winds.

[NorEaster27]

Today is probably the warmest day for locations on the coast untill Thursday.

[Isotherm]

Severe weather season should be much more active in the Plains to the Southeast as we've got the Nina induced thermal gradient w/ plentiful cold across the nern tier and burgeoning heat in the southern tier. Complete opposite of last spring, when we were warm across the north and cold in the south relative to normal. The latter basically promotes a stable / less dynamic pattern.

[earthlight]

Severe weather season should be much more active in the Plains to the Southeast as we've got the Nina induced thermal gradient w/ plentiful cold across the nern tier and burgeoning heat in the southern tier. Complete opposite of last spring, when we were warm across the north and cold in the south relative to normal. The latter basically promotes a stable / less dynamic pattern.

Wherever the gradient sets up will be important. Usually we can get early signs as to where it's going to set up...tomorrow being a good example. Right now it looks like it's going to set up in NNJ...so you and I will torch while zucker is in the low 50s.

As severe weather season draws closer these gradients and warm fronts can harbor significant evaluated convection. Something to keep in mind.

[A-L-E-X]

Wherever the gradient sets up will be important. Usually we can get early signs as to where it's going to set up...tomorrow being a good example. Right now it looks like it's going to set up in NNJ...so you and I will torch while zucker is in the low 50s.

As severe weather season draws closer these gradients and warm fronts can harbor significant evaluated convection. Something to keep in mind.

Southerly winds? Long Island will probably stay in the 40s lol.

[nzucker]

Severe weather season should be much more active in the Plains to the Southeast as we've got the Nina induced thermal gradient w/ plentiful cold across the nern tier and burgeoning heat in the southern tier. Complete opposite of last spring, when we were warm across the north and cold in the south relative to normal. The latter basically promotes a stable / less dynamic pattern.

I'm starting to get a bit concerned about the drought/heat ridge feedback pattern setting up in Texas and other parts of the Southern Plains. These places all received well below normal precipitation this winter, have been persistently in drought conditions the last few years (esp in the Southwest like AZ/NM), and now 20C 850s and windy weather are making the drought worse. If La Niña stays in place, these regions will have a hard time escaping the unusually arid pattern.

Wherever the gradient sets up will be important. Usually we can get early signs as to where it's going to set up...tomorrow being a good example. Right now it looks like it's going to set up in NNJ...so you and I will torch while zucker is in the low 50s.

As severe weather season draws closer these gradients and warm fronts can harbor significant evaluated convection. Something to keep in mind.

55.8F here today, no flakes in the Westchester Alps unfortunately. NWS has a high near 61F here tomorrow, so we'll see if we really get into the warm sector. Overall, as Isotherm pointed out, this week looks crappy with constant chances for rain and prolonged east winds. NWS only has 44F for the high here Friday, time to get the jacket back out!

[H2Otown_WX]

New NAM confines tomorrow's rain to NNE. It's had the hot hand so I'll ride it.

[CooL]

70's across the board, breaking out the shorts and t-shirt tommorrow

[A-L-E-X]

I'm starting to get a bit concerned about the drought/heat ridge feedback pattern setting up in Texas and other parts of the Southern Plains. These places all received well below normal precipitation this winter, have been persistently in drought conditions the last few years (esp in the Southwest like AZ/NM), and now 20C 850s and windy weather are making the drought worse. If La Niña stays in place, these regions will have a hard time escaping the unusually arid pattern.

55.8F here today, no flakes in the Westchester Alps unfortunately. NWS has a high near 61F here tomorrow, so we'll see if we really get into the warm sector. Overall, as Isotherm pointed out, this week looks crappy with constant chances for rain and prolonged east winds. NWS only has 44F for the high here Friday, time to get the jacket back out!

If we have another la nina we should have another hot dry summer.

[earthlight]

70's across the board, breaking out the shorts and t-shirt tommorrow

Best image of the day

[tmagan]

100 degrees at KLTS.

[A-L-E-X]

Best image of the day

and guess what, John? The Yankees are playing tomorrow night! This is the true beginning of Spring!

[earthlight]

55.8F here today, no flakes in the Westchester Alps unfortunately. NWS has a high near 61F here tomorrow, so we'll see if we really get into the warm sector. Overall, as Isotherm pointed out, this week looks crappy with constant chances for rain and prolonged east winds. NWS only has 44F for the high here Friday, time to get the jacket back out!

Yeah..your location kinda stinks in this time of the spring. But tomorrow should be an all out torch away from the immediate shoreline.

[Quincy]

lots of busting over the next few days. MOS looks like it's too cool between now and Tuesday.

my thoughts for Danbury: 61F Monday and 63F Tuesday. could go higher both days, especially with some sunshine. impressive 850mb temps, but clouds and some moisture aloft my limit the spike.

current forecast includes temps generally 4-8F+ warmer than MAV/MET guidance.

[forkyfork]

saturday is showing signs of a possible diurnal convection day for us

[forkyfork]

saturday is showing signs of a possible diurnal convection day for us

and after looking at the 12z euro ensemble mean, sunday and monday, too

[earthlight]

Raise your hand if you're stoked

[nzucker]

Raise your hand if you're stoked

It looks as if skies should clear by the afternoon with the passage of the warm front; with light SSW winds and little vegetation, temperatures will skyrocket at this point. This is the time of year to go very aggressive on temperatures since the lack of evapotranspiration tends to mean all the heat goes into raising the surface temperature. It's still 48.9F here so we'll be starting from a fairly high mark tomorrow morning, even if we do develop some showers with the frontal passage. 0z GFS shows 850mb temperatures near +14C by 0z, tomorrow evening, that should mean some good warmth. Could be a fairly humid/muggy night for this early in the season before we have widespread freezes and frosts on Wednesday.

[earthlight]

It looks as if skies should clear by the afternoon with the passage of the warm front; with light SSW winds and little vegetation, temperatures will skyrocket at this point. This is the time of year to go very aggressive on temperatures since the lack of evapotranspiration tends to mean all the heat goes into raising the surface temperature. It's still 48.9F here so we'll be starting from a fairly high mark tomorrow morning, even if we do develop some showers with the frontal passage. 0z GFS shows 850mb temperatures near +14C by 0z, tomorrow evening, that should mean some good warmth. Could be a fairly humid/muggy night for this early in the season before we have widespread freezes and frosts on Wednesday.

Yeah, the NAM has been incredibly bad in forecasting these situations over the past month. It was at least 10 degrees too cold on all of our "warm" days...I begin to wonder if it has something to do with climo. That should be less of an issue now. It did decrease H85 temperatures by about .8 degrees since it's 18z run, but the general idea is still there. +14 F 850 temperatures in the warm sector in April should easily get you into the 70's. I'd probably put money on Newark hitting 80 as long as the low level jet doesn't weaken enough to hang up the warm front for a few more hours.

[earthlight]

By the way, does anybody see what's going on in the Plains? Incredible thermodynamic environment. It looked a few days ago like the cap wouldn't erode, but it did...and here's the result.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH A LINE OF INTENSE

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR ERN IA SWWD INTO NRN MO AND NE KS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO

STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 2000

J/KG IN ERN IA TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN ERN KS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE

SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE

INSTABILITY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND STRONG DEEP

LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. ACCORDING TO THE TOPEKA 00Z SOUNDING...0-6 KM

SHEAR VALUES WHERE AROUND 70 KT WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF

8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE

INTENSE CORES. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH

THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS ESPECIALLY IN FAR NE KS AND NW MO

WHICH IS ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A

FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXISTING IN

FAR ERN IA AND NW IL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE STORMS ARE ALONG AND

JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY REDUCE THE TORNADO THREAT SOME.

[nzucker]

Yeah, the NAM has been incredibly bad in forecasting these situations over the past month. It was at least 10 degrees too cold on all of our "warm" days...I begin to wonder if it has something to do with climo. That should be less of an issue now. It did decrease H85 temperatures by about .8 degrees since it's 18z run, but the general idea is still there. +14 F 850 temperatures in the warm sector in April should easily get you into the 70's. I'd probably put money on Newark hitting 80 as long as the low level jet doesn't weaken enough to hang up the warm front for a few more hours.

If the 0z NAM verifies, we'll clear out rather quickly, which means we'll see widespread 70s and 80s tomorrow; however, the 0z NAM already seems to be off given radar shows a fairly robust line of precipitation approaching NYC metro and SNE, whereas the NAM shows almost no QPF for the area. 0z GFS may be a bit overdone with the precip but probably has a better idea on what's going on; however, the worry if the GFS verifies is that cloudy conditions linger behind the warm FROPA and we waste a lot of the day in a spotty overcast, not reaching the high temperature potential with these warm 850s.

[CooL]

By the way, does anybody see what's going on in the Plains? Incredible thermodynamic environment. It looked a few days ago like the cap wouldn't erode, but it did...and here's the result.

yeah it was awesome to watch unfold today..This is only the beginning too - should be a great severe weather season, and the gfs shows continuous severe weather threats. Along with warm ups and very brief cool downs for us.

[earthlight]

If the 0z NAM verifies, we'll clear out rather quickly, which means we'll see widespread 70s and 80s tomorrow; however, the 0z NAM already seems to be off given radar shows a fairly robust line of precipitation approaching NYC metro and SNE, whereas the NAM shows almost no QPF for the area. 0z GFS may be a bit overdone with the precip but probably has a better idea on what's going on; however, the worry if the GFS verifies is that cloudy conditions linger behind the warm FROPA and we waste a lot of the day in a spotty overcast, not reaching the high temperature potential with these warm 850s.

It's not terribly far off, but it definitely should have had light precipitation further east. It's doing a pretty good job with the measurable precipitation though. The GFS is notoriously bad in these situations..but the NAM is like the blind leading the blind.

[Isotherm]

Raise your hand if you're stoked

I think you've posted a temp map for Monday like 5 times now, I can tell you're stoked.

[earthlight]

I think you've posted a temp map for Monday like 5 times now, I can tell you're stoked.

Lol, I'm posting all the different NAM runs as they come out. They're getting warmer and warmer, getting me more and more stoked.

Anyway, check out this awesome CIMSS image from the convective initiation in the plains today. And you think we get bad thunderstorms here

[Isotherm]

If the 0z NAM verifies, we'll clear out rather quickly, which means we'll see widespread 70s and 80s tomorrow; however, the 0z NAM already seems to be off given radar shows a fairly robust line of precipitation approaching NYC metro and SNE, whereas the NAM shows almost no QPF for the area. 0z GFS may be a bit overdone with the precip but probably has a better idea on what's going on; however, the worry if the GFS verifies is that cloudy conditions linger behind the warm FROPA and we waste a lot of the day in a spotty overcast, not reaching the high temperature potential with these warm 850s.

Definitely high bust potential w/ tomorrow's temps. The NWS fcst high for Central Park is 62. I can see that being underdone by as much as 10-15 degrees, but can't see it being any colder than 62F. Even if clouds remain much of the day, there should be plenty of 70+ warmth just to the SW, waiting to be blown northward into the NYC area. So at worst, high temps may occur between the hours of 4-6pm. I remember this happened back in late April 2009. We were in the low 70s in Monmouth County, just north of the sfc warm front; temps were 90F+ in Trenton and Ocean County. At 6pm, the wind shift occurred in Colts Neck and I surged from the mid 70s to the mid 80s as sunset was occurring. Fell short of 90 by only a couple degrees around 7pm.

[Isotherm]

Lol, I'm posting all the different NAM runs as they come out. They're getting warmer and warmer, getting me more and more stoked.

Anyway, check out this awesome CIMSS image from the convective initiation in the plains today. And you think we get bad thunderstorms here

Wow, awesome image! Just the start of a very active severe weather season most likely, good news for chasers. Let's hope we get some of this action later in the spring/summer. Generally La Nina summers tend to be more favorable T-storm wise if I'm not mistaken.

[CooL]

[Isotherm]

Wow, awesome image! Just the start of a very active severe weather season most likely, good news for chasers. Let's hope we get some of this action later in the spring/summer. Generally La Nina summers tend to be more favorable T-storm wise if I'm not mistaken.

Yeah, thinking back through the 2000s, most summers were pretty crappy T-storm wise, at least in my area, with the exception of last year (2010), 2008, and 2006. Two of those three years were Nina summers. And of course the late 1990s were very good T-storm wise in our area, Nina seasons.