CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Ah OK, sorry....I was just saying that it might be hard for Maine to stay snow given the WAA ahead of the storm and marginal antecedent airmass. I think I am going to be up north with skierinvermont early next week, so we may see some snow. The best place to chase would undoubtedly be along Route 138 in eastern Quebec if this solution verifies. Areas like Sept-Iles and Baie Comeau are just amazing for snow, probably average over 200"/year from St. Lawrence Valley runners and coastals bombing in the Gulf of Maine...I've been up there in the summer and it's also incredibly gorgeous. Here is a picture of the Saguenay River, which drains into the St. Lawrence a bit below Baie Comeau: wow 200" a year..That pic looks so relaxing and is one of a kind. Cant find that type of beautiful landscape in NE jersey lol, gotta go up north away from the urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 This looks pretty good. The warmth periods will be transient but they are definitely there. I think we are done with sustained cold and below normal temperatures by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Look at the wind direction at 72 hours on the 12z GFS: That map is 12z Monday morning before the warm front passes. This thread is about Tuesday...here are the southerly 10m winds then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 wow 200" a year..That pic looks so relaxing and is one of a kind. Cant find that type of beautiful landscape in NE jersey lol, gotta go up north away from the urban areas. Those places get absolutely clocked because they do well in cutters, St. Lawrence Valley runners, and late blooming coastals. Another great area for snow is the Jacques Cartier National Park north of Quebec City; the highway hits about 2300' elevation, and they get absolutely smoked from October-May. I really want to move someplace snowy; the exciting stretch from December 26-February 2 this winter made me realize that I need to be in a place where I can consistently winter hike, sled, ski, etc. Anyway, here's a picture of Jacques Cartier National Park on May 23rd, note the snow patches still remaining by the sides of the road: This looks pretty good. The warmth periods will be transient but they are definitely there. I think we are done with sustained cold and below normal temperatures by next week. 12z GFS has -10C 850s down to Philly after the storm next week, looks cold: I hope this happens because I hated how early the heat started last year, miserable. That map is 12z Monday morning before the warm front passes. This thread is about Tuesday...here are the southerly 10m winds then. A southerly wind is still a sea breeze except for NJ. I could see Newark getting mid-upper 60s while the rest of us sit at a chilly 50F...New Jersey has a much more Mid-Atlantic climate than Northeast climate during the springtime; this is when I find EWR south to have the biggest differences from NYC/LI/Westchester...you guys torch much more easily in the spring because due southerlies don't bring in the maritime air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 looks like a SSW flow, coastal locations are not joining the warmth party. I think NYC, execpt for around JFK will stil get into it. But LI and Coastal CT will probably much cooler. Also the cold front has speed up if the 12z GFS or Euro today is right on the cold front passage, we probably wouldn't get into 70's on Tuesday. The severe wx threat would also be much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 70's roar thru jersey ahead of what looks like squally weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 70's roar thru jersey ahead of what looks like squally weather. Yup, even the NAM trended more amplified at 84 so that DGEX is not surprising. Hopefully this comes to fruition..would be beautiful. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Party at earthlights pool if we crack 70. I'll bring the light beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Party at earthlights pool if we crack 70. I'll bring the light beer. The next gtg should be at earthlights pool. People from eastern PA and western Jersey would come too. Set it up for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 I think I am going to be up north with skierinvermont early next week, so we may see some snow. The best place to chase would undoubtedly be along Route 138 in eastern Quebec if this solution verifies. Areas like Sept-Iles and Baie Comeau are just amazing for snow, probably average over 200"/year from St. Lawrence Valley runners and coastals bombing in the Gulf of Maine...I've been up there in the summer and it's also incredibly gorgeous. Here is a picture of the Saguenay River, which drains into the St. Lawrence a bit below Baie Comeau Those places get absolutely clocked because they do well in cutters, St. Lawrence Valley runners, and late blooming coastals. Another great area for snow is the Jacques Cartier National Park north of Quebec City; the highway hits about 2300' elevation, and they get absolutely smoked from October-May. I really want to move someplace snowy; the exciting stretch from December 26-February 2 this winter made me realize that I need to be in a place where I can consistently winter hike, sled, ski, etc. Anyway, here's a picture of Jacques Cartier National Park on May 23rd, note the snow patches still remaining by the sides of the road Sept-Iles averages 162.20"/y or 412cm/y and Baie Comeau averages 142.13"/y or 361.5cm/y, per Environment Canada for the period of 1971/2000. The highest official amounts in Eastern Canada are in Labrador at Nain, 193.7"/y (492cm/y), Churchill Falls, 183"/y (465.3cm/y) and Goose Bay, 180.31"/y (458.8cm/y). The highway that you were referring to is Route 175 which is now a virtually completed expressway which runs in a north/south direction of about 150 miles, from Quebec City to Chicoutimi in the Lake St. John Valley Region of Quebec, which reaches its highest point at L'Etape, at about 2700'(which is also about the midway point), where there's a gas station, restaurant (that is part of a local chicken type franchise, which has roasted chicken that is quite good), and a cam that is tied into the website of Transport Quebec or Quebec 5-1-1. My estimate is that L'Etape and adjacent areas probably average close to 236"/y (600cm/y), because of its elevation and proximity to the tracks of the lps' you referred to above, and Alberta clippers. Not only is this area unigue because of its substantial snowfall amounts, but probably was also an area where North American Ice Sheets would have initially developed, or in the future would initially develop, because of its latitude, elevation and proximity to substantial amounts of moisture on this continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 The next gtg should be at earthlights pool. People from eastern PA and western Jersey would come too. Set it up for July. Let's do it. Completely serious. Nzucker will be melting in the sun in his dobbs ferry windbreaker he wore to the g2g a few weeks ago. I can only imagine his commentary about the long range gfs snowstorms for august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 the front is trending faster. the 12z euro passes the cold front through nyc before 12z tuesday, with the gfs a few hours slower. the 00z nam also backs this up: our warm day is going to be monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 our warm day is going to be monday depending on the timing of the warm front, the usual warm spots could exceed 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 If the models do continue to speed the front up, you'll have 15+ c 850 temperatures at peak diurnal heating...so I would be inclined to agree. but we need the trend to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Euro is still somewhere in between. If you live west or southwest of EWR it's a great run. Has my location and areas south/west at 60+ 18z Monday as well as 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 depending on the timing of the warm front, the usual warm spots could exceed 80 The whole system have to be about 12hrs faster than what the GFS shows, to see it that warm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Monday and Tuesday look warm, then the SE ridge looks like it wants to go nuts until a piece of the PV splits off and bleeds into the northeast and ruins the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Euro soundings now bring LGA up to 65-70 on Tuesday. Followed by 1.30" of rain. Has EWR the same temps and precip as LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Looks like we're getting into a back and forth type of pattern finally allowing some warmer days not seen in the last 7 - 10 days. Overall I think we'll avg near normal perhaps bias warm once to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 high bust potential on both ends of the spectrum for both Monday and Tuesday. I currently favor a FROPA sometime Tuesday, probably 12-18z. That scenario would bring mild weather on Monday and warm weather Tuesday. If the timing speeds up, the "torch" could be Monday afternoon/evening, followed by seasonable weather Tuesday. The EC currently has the passage Tuesday afternoon, which could mean a real torch on Tuesday. Either way, temperatures will probably be steady or rising late Monday night into early Tuesday. I know that MOS/NWS has been back and forth. Current NWS forecast for Danbury has 47F on Monday and 53F on Tuesday. Although that is entirely possible, either or both days could bust 10F or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 euro tries to form a low off the front and throw back some more precip on wednesday after the frontal passage. after that there is a huge west coast trough and a ridge building in the east.. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 euro tries to form a low off the front and throw back some more precip on wednesday after the frontal passage. after that there is a huge west coast trough and a ridge building in the east.. Nice 850's are plenty cold and .60" falls but thicknesses are warm until precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Very impressive winds at 925 mb and 850 mb from 6Z to 9Z Tuesday morning. Mixing half of the wind down will cause 45 knt wind gusts. 85 knots at 925 mb. Very windy warm sector just above the deck with very strong inversion saving us from damaging winds. There is much elevated CAPE and negative LI so Tuesday night could be interesting to mix near HWW gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 850's are plenty cold and .60" falls but thicknesses are warm until precip ends. None of the other models really show this solution, unfortunately, but it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 None of the other models really show this solution, unfortunately, but it bears watching. this time of the year, we probably now need 850s to be -4C or lower for any legit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 How about this from the 00Z NAM: 850 mb temp. at 06Z Tuesday for KNYC: 15 degrees Celsius 850 mb temp. at 12Z Tuesday for KNYC: -1 degree Celsius I don't remember the last time seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM is faster with the warm front and warmer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Euro soundings are warm tomorrow and Tuesday. Both days into lower to mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Euro soundings are warm tomorrow and Tuesday. Both days into lower to mid 60's. Likes this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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