earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Most global models have trended stronger with the shortwave entering the Plains by Day 3-4, with a significant upper air trough digging into Oklahoma and eventually the Arlatex. As a result, the mid and upper level height field is forecast to amplify over the Eastern 1/3 of the US. Although the pattern is transient, this is a good one for getting a warm front well north of the area. The GFS shows the potential results, with our area warm sectored and H85 temperatures soaring towards +15 C Tuesday. Should this occur we likely would get into the 70's with a southerly breeze. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=04&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=00&fhour=114¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Thank the lord, 70's at last..Im getting excited about the severe weather threat near the TN valley, it looks classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Thank the lord, 70's at last..Im getting excited about the severe weather threat near the TN valley, it looks classic Yup, I'm stoked for that too. There are some really favorable kinematic signals already amongst the guidance with significant moisture return juxtaposed with favorable wind fields. Spring has sprung in those areas for sure. I also like the Day 3 threat (SPC still has it highlighted as Day 4 on their discussion but that will be changed soon)...but that will likely be a glorious waste of thermodynamics with the capping in place. Classic, too...forecasting severe weather in the Plains can be a real mess. But the Day 5 (now Day 4) threat seems legit to me. ...DAY 4... LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS LEE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING RICHER GULF MOISTURE THROUGH WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. EML WILL EXPAND EWD AND EFFECTIVELY CAP WARM SECTOR EAST OF DRYLINE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR IMPULSE TO EJECT EWD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM KS SWD INTO OK AND NRN TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND INTERCEPTS THE DRYLINE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA. ...DAY 5... WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DAY 5. GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING LLJ. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME PROBABLE AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Nasty strengthening nocturnal LLJ signal, too. Sfc dew points are like 67 F in the southern TN Valley at that time frame with 60+kts of bulk shear and 1500 joules of surface cape. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Also, for what it's worth, the NAM is much less enthused in getting the warm front through here. It's way less amplified with the height field in general at 84 hours. It should be interesting to watch this unfold..each spring is it's own monster when it comes to warm fronts in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Nasty strengthening nocturnal LLJ signal, too. Sfc dew points are like 67 F in the southern TN Valley at that time frame with 60+kts of bulk shear and 1500 joules of surface cape. Ouch. that's just flat out nasty..Will be interesting to see when the spc puts out a moderate risk (maybe high risk?) .. im pretty sold on there being atleast few violent tornadoes of EF2 or greater with a setup like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 that's just flat out nasty..Will be interesting to see when the spc puts out a moderate risk (maybe high risk?) .. im pretty sold on there being atleast few violent tornadoes of EF2 or greater with a setup like that. It's an extremely sensitive setup at all levels...it's definitely not going to be a high risk until it's at Day 1..but I wouldnt be surprised to see a Moderate at some point earlier than that, especially if the guidance trends continue. The GFS tonight was pretty ominous with the backing surface winds in the warm sector..there's also a secondary low pressure along the front in the arklatex which would really add to the problem. But we're way too far out to get into intricate details...it won't even be at Day 3 on tonight's outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Also, for what it's worth, the NAM is much less enthused in getting the warm front through here. It's way less amplified with the height field in general at 84 hours. It should be interesting to watch this unfold..each spring is it's own monster when it comes to warm fronts in this region. With cold SST's this time of year, models are too quick to move warm fronts through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I don't see the excitement about severe weather in places 1000 miles away. I do hear that the 12z ECM and 0z GFS almost turn this into a snowstorm for areas just north, so that element may keep me interested. The storm doesn't seem to want to produce much precipitation in the cold sector, otherwise we'd be looking at widespread blizzard warnings in the Northern Plains. Looks like some transient warmth Monday and Tuesday with highs around 60-65F, then a sharp cold front with windy conditions and highs in the upper 40s later in the week with the -10C 850 contour just north of Binghamton. Could be a great situation for skiing in NNE if the low reforms and blasts them, especially with the arctic high moving in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 With cold SST's this time of year, models are too quick to move warm fronts through here. Considering it was in the upper 80's last year in early April even at JFK, mother nature probably would disagree on occasion... http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2010/4/1/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/2010/4/1/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I wouldn't even look at the NAM right now for this event. If we get into SW flow, we will sees in highs in the mid 70's to maybe around 80, in NYC metro, NJ and Hudson Valley, with those 850mb temps 14C+. That would also put us under a slight risk for severe wx, depending on timing of cold frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I think any warm ups will be brief but significant...I think another unseasonably cool period will follow before we can plant tulips... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12z GFS speeds up FROPA, eliminating our one day of possible torch. Temps are upper 40s Monday afternoon, we warm sector from 00z to 12z, and temps are back into the 40s by Tuesday afternoon. Agree Unc regarding the lack of sustained above normal temps for awhile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 12z GFS speeds up FROPA, eliminating our one day of possible torch. Temps are upper 40s Monday afternoon, we warm sector from 00z to 12z, and temps are back into the 40s by Tuesday afternoon. Verbatim on the 12z GFS we still get towards 60...so it's not a torch, but it's definitely better than what we've been experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 I don't see the excitement about severe weather in places 1000 miles away. This thread is about the potential for a torch, and severe weather outbreaks tend to be interesting regardless of where they are occurring..so we were just discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 If 12z euro, if to be believed, Soundings show Monday at 55-60 and Tuesday the same, 55-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 If 12z euro is to be believed, Soundings show Monday at 55-60 and Tuesday the same, 55-60 Yup, it's 60+ throughout much of Central/Western NJ in the warm sector, too. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Considering it was in the upper 80's last year in early April even at JFK, mother nature probably would disagree on occasion... http://classic.wunde...y.html#calendar http://classic.wunde...y.html#calendar That was an epic heat wave. I got horrifically sunburned snowboarding at Killington in a tank top that weekend. It was in the 70's at the summit at 4300 feet. This in no way shape or form reassembles that but it would be nice to crack 60 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 looks pretty warm on the dgex, even though its solution is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 looks pretty warm on the dgex, even though its solution is wild Not really all that wild..the 850 temps are similar to most other models...it's just faster with the warm fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 looks like a SSW flow, coastal locations are not joining the warmth party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 looks like a SSW flow, coastal locations are not joining the warmth party. Could definitely be one of those days where it's much warmer just inland than it is near the coast. The Euro has 60+ F almost to Newark and a bit cooler over the coast which would agree with your idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Could definitely be one of those days where it's much warmer just inland than it is near the coast. The Euro has 60+ F almost to Newark and a bit cooler over the coast which would agree with your idea. Euro for Newark: Monday - 59 Tuesday - starts off 50's in morning and then cools down after Wed - 51 Thursday - 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Not really all that wild..the 850 temps are similar to most other models...it's just faster with the warm fropa. yeah i was talking about 132-144, a 984mb off Montauk, and another blizzard for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Euro for Newark: Monday - 59 Tuesday - starts off 50's in morning and then cools down after Wed - 51 Thursday - 63 Monday and Thursday are winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 If 12z euro, if to be believed, Soundings show Monday at 55-60 and Tuesday the same, 55-60 That's not a torch at all, as NYC's average high reaches 60F around April 11th. I don't really think it's going to get into the 70s; there's ample cloudiness and rain showers Monday and Tuesday, and the position of the Bermuda high well offshore ensures that our wind direction is SE; that's a recipe for a crappy day with occasional sprinkles and temperatures hanging in the 50s, perhaps 40s well out on Long Island. I think the below average temperature pattern is set to continue, as a strong +AO combined with a -EPO is a powerful signal for below average temperatures in the East during April/May....this pattern generally keeps the polar vortex situated near Hudson Bay or Baffin Island, allowing some of the low heights to bleed into the Northeast. Also, there looks to be a series of SW flow events (could be fun in New England), and that means surface winds are easterly, during a time when SSTs are just past their seasonal minimum. Look at the wind direction at 72 hours on the 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 yeah i was talking about 132-144, a 984mb off Montauk, and another blizzard for Maine. The 12z GFS changes Maine over to rain for the initial storm at 96 hours; the snow/rain line is around Baie Comeau, Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 The 12z GFS changes Maine over to rain for the initial storm at 96 hours; the snow/rain line is around Baie Comeau, Quebec. i was describing the dgex 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 i was describing the dgex 6z run Ah OK, sorry....I was just saying that it might be hard for Maine to stay snow given the WAA ahead of the storm and marginal antecedent airmass. I think I am going to be up north with skierinvermont early next week, so we may see some snow. The best place to chase would undoubtedly be along Route 138 in eastern Quebec if this solution verifies. Areas like Sept-Iles and Baie Comeau are just amazing for snow, probably average over 200"/year from St. Lawrence Valley runners and coastals bombing in the Gulf of Maine...I've been up there in the summer and it's also incredibly gorgeous. Here is a picture of the Saguenay River, which drains into the St. Lawrence a bit below Baie Comeau: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Judging by the 18Z NAM, I'm thinking about maybe some elevated convection Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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