HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 The 2 am PDT package has TS Adrian at 50 kt and strengthening. The Discussion is quite bullish Re: RI-- with some unusually aggressive language: THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H...AND A 77 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40 KT OF STRENGTHENING. A NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE STORM...WHICH THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24 H...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE FROM 24-48 H IN ANTICIPATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. They bring it up to a solid 90 kt within 48 hr. If this cyclone were close to-- or heading toward-- land, this would be a tense situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Close enough for TS watches later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Close enough for TS watches later today? The NHC notes the GFDL's poleward bias and firmly discounts it with this cyclone, as per the forecast track, which keeps it well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 It seems like the poleward bias of both hurricane models is amplified in this basin. It seems like they always want to draw storms up near the baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 It seems like the poleward bias of both hurricane models is amplified in this basin. It seems like they always want to draw storms up near the baja Yeah, totally. The poleward bias in this particular instance is pretty hardcore. (Of course, if it ends up verifying, we'll all be eating that word "bias".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 TS Watch issued for parts of Mexican Coast... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED EYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION. THIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Close enough for TS watches later today? The NHC notes the GFDL's poleward bias and firmly discounts it with this cyclone, as per the forecast track, which keeps it well offshore. Ed, you were right and I was wrong. As Steve posted, they just issues a TS Watch for a portion of the MX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Winds are up to 60 kt now, and they take it up to 95 kt (almost Cat 3) by 48 hr. The N jog is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 One of the more awkward cyclones I've seen with the dry-slot on the NE side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Winds are up to 60 kt now, and they take it up to 95 kt (almost Cat 3) by 48 hr. The N jog is interesting. 100kt is my guess for peak strength. I still think the track in the 3-5 days will be adjusted southward...~0.5-1 degree south of Socorro island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MIMIC clearly shows just how big that Northward jump was. IR and WV imagery suggesting that the dry air in the NE semi circle may be filling in and moistening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Almost wrapped up and should be a cane later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Visible imagery suggests overshooting tops and IR show clouds are cooling. The stage is set for some rapid intensification this evening and overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Visible imagery suggests overshooting tops and IR show clouds are cooling. The stage is set for some rapid intensification this evening and overnight... Yeah, but it's not close to getting the optimal "ring" pattern. If it closes off an eyewall, then we can start talking about RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 500 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011 ...ADRIAN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 102.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Small eye about to come out.. RI underway? Cold tops surrounding the eye too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 80 mph now. NHC has this thing getting to 120 mph. Wow. Dvorak hinting at RI right now... raw T is nearly 6.0. http://tropic.ssec.w...adt/odt01E.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The latest. Looks pretty good. A solid first cyclone of the season. As battlebrick said, they now bring it up to 105 kt-- in 36 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Still needs to burp out that pocket of dry air before we start to see serious RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Good looking core: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 And now we have an eye. It's just popped through on the last few frames: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Talk about an eye! Nice stadium effect and wonderful outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 NRL sucks. The "upgraded" page is full of broken links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Talk about an eye! Nice stadium effect and wonderful outflow. Nice image, there! Good find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Now a Cat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Sweet looking Adrian 15Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looping the NASA site...looks like it may be ingesting another round of stable air http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 There's still another 12-18 hours of possible strengthening... it should peak around 115kts tonight/early morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.