HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Ok, now it's really ready to pop! The new TWO puts it at 100%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Storms now beginning to fire near the circulation center. This should be upgraded to TD status this evening, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I'm not usually one to get excited about the diurnal maximum, but if that's enough to get convection over the center, this thing will be a TD. The LLC is already there, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 I'm not usually one to get excited about the diurnal maximum, but if that's enough to get convection over the center, this thing will be a TD. The LLC is already there, imo. Yeah, it seems to have the skeleton but not the meat. Even now-- 1 am Pacific time-- the convection looks a bit sparse. But perhaps it'll crank in the next few hours. I don't like the way this has been a 100% cherry for like three TWOs now. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Still close, but not quite. Should be TD #1E today, I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 91E is looking a bit better this morning. I still suspect a TD before the day is done... Only off by a day... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Down a mb to 1006 with the 12Z best. 91E certainly has the look of a TD taking shape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Down a mb to 1006 with the 12Z best. 91E certainly has the look of a TD taking shape... I'm on watch now for the first 01E showing up in a model message or NRL, before the official announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Renumber file is up on the ftp site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Renumber file is up on the ftp site. Does that make it official, or do we need an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Renumber file is up on the ftp site. Cool, so can we consider it TD 1E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Cool, so can we consider it TD 1E? Nothing is official until the advisory is up on the NHC site, but renumbers indicate an upgrade 98% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Nothing is official until the advisory is up on the NHC site, but renumbers indicate an upgrade 98% of the time. Yeah, as I thought. Since it's not 100%, I'll be a disciplined journalist and wait until the official classification before upgrading the thread subtitle with this dramatic news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Certainly looking better with the light of day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Woo hoo! TD 1E has been declared. The NHC recurves ir pretty far offshore, peaking it at 75 kt by Day 4. Re: the models that bring it ashore in MX, the Discussion says: THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... APPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Lacking convection in the southern flank, but outflow is well established and the N to NNW motion continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 You going to charter a boat so you can 'go fishing' with the storm? Woo hoo! TD 1E has been declared. The NHC recurves ir pretty far offshore, peaking it at 75 kt by Day 4. Re: the models that bring it ashore in MX, the Discussion says: THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... APPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yea the lack of central core convection means that we should only see slow intensification for the next 12-24 hours. Beyond that though we should see more rapid development until it reaches cooler waters. If this system obtains a well defined inner core, it could really ramp up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Woo hoo! TD 1E has been declared. The NHC recurves ir pretty far offshore, peaking it at 75 kt by Day 4. Re: the models that bring it ashore in MX, the Discussion says: THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... APPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. There's a very well defined deep ridge over most of N/NW Mexico... I don't know what the GFDL and HWRF drank. If any, the track will be south of the current forecasted track, IMO Yea the lack of central core convection means that we should only see slow intensification for the next 12-24 hours. Beyond that though we should see more rapid development until it reaches cooler waters. If this system obtains a well defined inner core, it could really ramp up in a hurry. Which won't be that far off. SSTs around Socorro island are 24-25C ... the -PDO will hurt any long tracking cyclone's attempts this season. Remnant lows... I mean post-tropical lows, FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 18Z SHIPS RI Numbers. It's good to be back in the tropic threads Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 14.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 There's a very well defined deep ridge over most of N/NW Mexico... I don't know what the GFDL and HWRF drank. If any, the track will be south of the current forecasted track, IMO Well, I guess it's the typical poleward bias of those models? The NHC mentions it again in the 2 pm PDT Discussion. 18Z SHIPS RI Numbers. It's good to be back in the tropic threads It is a warm-n-fuzzy feeling, isn't it? Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 The 2 pm PDT advisory indicates the TD has strengthened, and the forecast now brings it up to a healthy 85 kt by Day 4. They still keep the cyclone well offshore, moving roughly parallel to the MX coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 A little lopsided. 1/2 looks like a hurricane, 1/2 looks like a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 WE HAVE TS ADRIAN!! EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS Great circulation... just need that east side to ramp up. But yeah.. Tropical Storm Adrian at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane tomorrow... you can see it wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane tomorrow... you can see it wrapping up. Agreed. It looks great-- really pulling together now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 ...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN.... TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED INMICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERALHOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE ISCAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMETMODELS.THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISRAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATESUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS IN IT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH$FORECASTER BLAKE ------------------ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 A tribute to Adrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Its structure is rapidly improving... I'm gonna jump aboard the rapid intensification train and say we should see hurricane Adrian later today at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Since the forum is being a format bi--h, I'm sticking with images. Note the Raw ADT number. These were all around 2.1 about seven hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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