HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 The mode runs are hawt, but this thing really lost its convection this evening. Hopefully it'll flare up again overnight with the dmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Nice banding structure becoming established. I would not be surprised to see a cherry out of this before the day is done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Wow-- the GFDL is aggressive. But even the SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane. I see they all drop off dramatically at ~72 hr, perhaps due to land intreraction. Interesting to see the models suggesting N movement and a potential landfall this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Oh look...we have a cherry... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Oh, how nice to see red on the map so early in the season. Adam doesn't think it's much of a threat to land, but I do like the unseasonal NW heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html TD1? It's looking fantastic. Look at W97.5 N10.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 MLC looks rigorous, a little more low-level convergence and this is gonna go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Oh, how nice to see red on the map so early in the season. Adam doesn't think it's much of a threat to land, but I do like the unseasonal NW heading. Early? we are a bit late for the 1st storm of the season according to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looking pretty good. The SHIPS brings it up to a solid 80 kt in 72 hr. The GFDL and HWRF, which always seem to have a poleward bias, bring it ashore in MX; the GFS firmly fishes it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Since I can't chase this one-- still stuck in Europe-- I guess I hope it fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Oh, how nice to see red on the map so early in the season. Adam doesn't think it's much of a threat to land, but I do like the unseasonal NW heading. You can't make it back in time, can you, especially for uncertain track and strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 You can't make it back in time, can you, especially for uncertain track and strength? No, I would miss this one if it got interesting. I like how it's been looking on the GDFL-- has a mico/cutiecane vibe to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looking for Manzanillo/Puerto Vallarta tickets...this looks like it's going to be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looking for Manzanillo/Puerto Vallarta tickets...this looks like it's going to be a big deal Sure thing, kushito. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Sure thing, ku****o. to make this post worthy, I should add that I don't think anything significant comes out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 ZCZC MIATWOEP ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL500 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWPRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATIONOF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATETHAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEWHOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNANNNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Nice! The cherry's ready to pop! Still drifting NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Call me impressed. TD by tomorrow and ramping up quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 looks like it might take a bit more time to get this thing going... convection really has fallen apart tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 to make this post worthy, I should add that I don't think anything significant comes out of it. It's going to fish. It'll probably be the first hurricane of the year, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's going to fish. It'll probably be the first hurricane of the year, though. I think it was discussed, but I'm hazy. Did this involve a Kelvin wave passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I think it was discussed, but I'm hazy. Did this involve a Kelvin wave passage? Probably. I obviously can't prove it, but the timing is likely more than a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 91E is looking a bit better this morning. I still suspect a TD before the day is done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Looks like some definite banding in that MW imagery. Definitely improved presentation from overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 91E is looking a bit better this morning. I still suspect a TD before the day is done... Yeah. I imagine as soon more convection fires over the center we'll have TD 1. The circulation is already strong enough, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's going to fish. It'll probably be the first hurricane of the year, though. Significant meaning as a threat to land. I agree with you that this has a good chance of getting to hurricane status, it looks pretty decent already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Cabo Wabo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Cabo Wabo? The last few runs of the GFS have been curving it back towards NW MX in the out periods. I'm not really buying it. If it does get far enough north to turn back, it'd get sheared apart by westerlies before it has a chance to get to MX, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 The last few runs of the GFS have been curving it back towards NW MX in the out periods. I'm not really buying it. If it does get far enough north to turn back, it'd get sheared apart by westerlies before it has a chance to get to MX, I would think. You're just all warm-n-fuzzies with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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