Srain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep902011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201111161844 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Hard to tell from 24 hour time steps, but Euro seems to suggest it gets ingested into what becomes the Mother of All Texas Troughs the day after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Hard to tell from 24 hour time steps, but Euro seems to suggest it gets ingested into what becomes the Mother of All Texas Troughs the day after Thanksgiving. Keep dreaming. Ain't gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Hard to tell from 24 hour time steps, but Euro seems to suggest it gets ingested into what becomes the Mother of All Texas Troughs the day after Thanksgiving. At 240, it's at 20N 120W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 At 240, it's at 20N 120W Not the weak little remnant low, I think the 500 mb low becomes caught up in the trough. 24 hour time steps and continent wide small maps make it tricky to be sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Not the weak little remnant low, I think the 500 mb low becomes caught up in the trough. 24 hour time steps and continent wide small maps make it tricky to be sure... There is a moisture fetch from it in the Euro (not unlike what we see in the Atlantic late in the season), but no part of the circulation gets entrained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Meh...climo ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Not bothering with the GFDL and SHIPS is fairly 'meh'. 556 WHXX01 KMIA 171219 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1219 UTC THU NOV 17 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902011) 20111117 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 111117 1200 111118 0000 111118 1200 111119 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 9.1N 94.0W 9.1N 95.5W 9.1N 97.5W 9.4N 99.6W BAMD 9.1N 94.0W 9.4N 96.3W 9.9N 98.8W 10.3N 101.3W BAMM 9.1N 94.0W 9.3N 95.6W 9.7N 97.6W 10.2N 99.6W LBAR 9.1N 94.0W 9.6N 95.9W 10.5N 97.7W 11.4N 99.3W SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 111119 1200 111120 1200 111121 1200 111122 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 9.7N 101.7W 10.5N 106.3W 11.1N 111.6W 10.4N 116.5W BAMD 10.6N 103.6W 11.0N 108.8W 11.9N 114.3W 11.5N 118.5W BAMM 10.7N 101.5W 11.4N 105.7W 12.5N 111.0W 12.6N 115.5W LBAR 12.2N 100.6W 13.6N 104.0W 14.4N 108.2W 13.0N 112.3W SHIP 32KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS DSHP 32KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 94.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 92.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 90.4W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 The BAMs are showing a lame, early-season fish track. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Mandarin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Mandarin now. 40%...meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 A Formation Alert has been issued on 90E. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Thanks, Steve! I have to confess, I hadn't even been watching it today. The models are pretty aggressive with it: the SHIPS makes it a 'cane and the GFDL brings it up over a whopping 125 kt! (Kinda crazy for late November!) But they all keep it on a firm fish course, out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Invest 90E is upgraded to Cherry as of 10 pm PST. The SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane by Day 3. Interestingly, the models are unanimous Re: a midsummer-style, straight-WNW track to nowhere. Kenneth ain't gonna be workin' any late-season recurve magic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 The 00Z Euro agrees with the other models, showing a decent cyclone totally fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 90E continues to improve and the NHC has raised the probs to 80%. It still is lacking convection on the Western semi circle, but does appear on the way to an upgrade to TD status... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011 ...RARE MID-NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 101.0W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A REGION OF DRY AIR RESULTING FROM A GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY FILL IN OVER THE CIRCULATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS SHOWING MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LGEM MODEL. BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH FORMED ON DECEMBER 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 13E continues to improve in structure this morning. Convection is beginning to wrap around the center and I suspect we getting close to an upgrade to TS Kenneth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Somebody at NHC was bored... What's the frequency, Kenneth, of a tropical storm forming in the eastern North Pacific this late in the season? From their Face Book... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH THANPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 290/10. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE NEW LONGER-TERM MOTION REPRESENTS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR A CHANGE OF HEADING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE POTENCY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SUBSEQUENT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT KENNETH WILL BE WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. KENNETH BECOMES THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE FORMED ON 4 DECEMBER 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Impressive for so late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice loop, calamity! It does look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Kenneth has rapidly strengthened tonight-- now at 55 kt and increasing. Should become a 'cane today. Looks pretty good-- an appropriate finale to this EPAC season, which saw incredible quality. If Kenneth reaches 65 kt (as forecast), that will make 10 hurricanes out of 11 named storms! Wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011 ...KENNETH BECOMES A RARE LATE-SEASON HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 109.6W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 The forecast brings Kenneth to 100 kt within the next day. Should that happen, this would be the latest known major in this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This is like EPac's -but relatively short lived cyclones- 1950 Atlantic season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Intensity up to 982 mb/75 kt now. Cool banding features-- apparent even on the IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lookin hawt for Nov 21st! what a wimpy name, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks to me like it might be a major now. Cloud tops aren't terribly cold, but a terrific eye has really cleared out on the IR imagery. Looks awesome! Let's see what they say at 7 pm PST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Very impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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