wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 99E is kind of interesting to me. Has some decent spin to it tonight, and NHC is now showing it at 90%. EnKF brings it into El Salvador as a decent looking system (1004 mb low) . Not an expert by any means on EPAC climo - how often do systems come in from the west at that low of a latitude? Not very often...but Adrian 2005 would be a good analog... very early or late storms make a bit of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Here's the disc. for that cherry. 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDREDMILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS LIMITED AND DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Smallish core cooking... still weak on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Recon is descending, to mission altitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 SE quad. Flight level (700mb) max 74kt, SFMR max 72kt NW quad Flight level max 70kt, SFMR max 59kt Min extrap pressure 979.5mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 SE quad. Flight level (700mb) max 74kt, SFMR max 72kt NW quad Flight level max 70kt, SFMR max 59kt Min extrap pressure 979.5mb Seems like 70-75 knots in the max intensity currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 82kt flight level SW quad, 66kt NE quad Drop was 976mb, down from the 980mb drop with the previous pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Jova is looking good on IR now, now a Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Looking like Jova is entering a period of rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 NHC now forecasting a category four hurricane, this could end up being a high end four eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 While not an impressive storm... Irwin easily wins the contest for the strangest track this year. I don't think I've ever seen a storm recurve SW before in the northern hemisphere (at tropical latitudes at least). Please if anyone can find a storm sub 20N that was moving NE and made a loop back to the SW let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 What an annoying waste of time (operationally speaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I've seen typhoons in a Fujiwhara do strnage things like Irwin, but they were generally between 20 and 30N. The best sample of storms to look for such a track is the JTWC ATCR going back to 1959. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 While not an impressive storm... Irwin easily wins the contest for the strangest track this year. I don't think I've ever seen a storm recurve SW before in the northern hemisphere (at tropical latitudes at least). Please if anyone can find a storm sub 20N that was moving NE and made a loop back to the SW let me know. Easy 1952 could be a candidate.... not as weird though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Marco 1996 is a good candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 One from WPAC though not below 20N. STY Parma 20-31 October 2003: Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 FWIW, the 12Z GFS suggests a TC threatening Cabo San Lucas in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 FWIW, the 12Z GFS suggests a TC threatening Cabo San Lucas in the longer range. Omg-- pleeeeez, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 12Z GFS and Euro both hinting at fairly low latitude action in the basin in about a week. The question is whether this late in the year even a low latitude storm could avoid being recurved into Mexico. New GFS says no, or yes to action (beyond resolution chop) and maybe one more adventure for i-Cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 November 'cane landfalls are exceedingly rare in this basin-- just twice in the last 60 years: Tara 1961 and Rick 1997, both Cat 1s. This aside, my biz partner would have my head on a platter if I went on another chase in this calendar year. I can't even think about sins so deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 But that does look kinda interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 November 'cane landfalls are exceedingly rare in this basin-- just twice in the last 60 years: Tara 1961 and Rick 1997, both Cat 1s. So is snow pre-Halloween in NYC. This could be the year of miracles! This aside, my biz partner would have my head on a platter if I went on another chase in this calendar year. I can't even think about sins so deep. You need to develop a client base in Mexico as cover for chases. 6Z GFS still has it, post-chop landfall only a little further South than 0Z. Genesis region should already be interesting satellite wise per 6Z GFS in the Western Caribbean. 6Z GFS also has a Happy Hurricane Rosa type Texas drought-denting solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 NoGaps, Canadian and GFS all onboard at 12Z to one degree or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Oh, man. I thought we were safe from more mischief in this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 The feature still appears on the 12Z Euro, but not as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Upper-level environment looks favorable in 6-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 The feature has reasserted itself quite markedly in the 12Z Euro, days 8-10-- but it seems to stay well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The 384 hr GFS brings the post trop remant core into SE AZ. Aside from the fact that the 384 hr GFS isn't worth dog poop down here, I don't think that any TC remnant has made it this far north in late November before. I've seen moisture plumes in November that dumped copious amounts of rain but they were triggered but cutoff ULLs dropping south along the CA coast. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The 384 hr GFS brings the post trop remant core into SE AZ. Aside from the fact that the 384 hr GFS isn't worth dog poop down here, I don't think that any TC remnant has made it this far north in late November before. I've seen moisture plumes in November that dumped copious amounts of rain but they were triggered but cutoff ULLs dropping south along the CA coast. Steve The GFS continues to tease us here in Texas with a drought denting cyclone hitting the Baja at the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The GFS continues to tease us here in Texas with a drought denting cyclone hitting the Baja at the end of November. That's the one I'm talking about-it would be a major departure from climo to get a storm that far north in the EPAC in late November. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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