EPAC Tropical Action 2011

[icebreaker5221]

NHC's calling it westward motion, but it's pretty obvious that Hilary's been moving to the WSW for some time now.

[phil882]

NHC's calling it westward motion, but it's pretty obvious that Hilary's been moving to the WSW for some time now.

I've got to hand it to the GFS. I thought it was nuts calling for the WSW motion last week and here we are watching the GFS verify quite nicely from 5 days ago. I guess it doesn't need to know the actual storm intensity when its small enough to have little impact on the overall steering.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hilary has restrengthened to a Cat 4, with a current intensity of 949 mb/115 kt. Wow-- a tenacious system.

It's still forecast to die over the open waters of the EPAC well W of the Baja Peninsula:

[phil882]

It doesn't look quite as good right now, but that's simply because another EWRC is underway. Its hard to tell but there may have been 2-3 EWRC during the past 48 hours after going through a period where it seemed to maintain its structure. Looks like this next eyewall is a bit larger, so I think its ending its microcane phase at this time.

[icebreaker5221]

Hilary has restrengthened to a Cat 4, with a current intensity of 949 mb/115 kt. Wow-- a tenacious system.

It's still forecast to die over the open waters of the EPAC well W of the Baja Peninsula:

Who wants to photoshop that thing into the Atlantic so we can remember what it feels like?

[HurricaneJosh]

Who wants to photoshop that thing into the Atlantic so we can remember what it feels like?

Seriously. I was thinking that today. Imagine if this thing was in the Gulf. Omg-- we'd all be flipping out over it.

[wxmx]

MW and IR show that it's getting rid of all banding features.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hilary is unwinding-- it's no longer a hurricane.

Interestingly, the NHC sent out a recon plane to investigate it earlier in the day, at which time they verified it was still a hurricane. (Too bad they didn't send out recon when the cyclone was really looking super-hawt a few days ago. That would have been awesome.)

Anyhoo, winds are down to 60 kt and it'll soon die a lame, lonely death over the cool EPAC waters W of the Baja. Blah.

[HurricaneJosh]

Barely a shadow of its formal self:

[HurricaneJosh]

Post 1,000! Woo hoo!

[HurricaneJosh]

OK... It's almost October and I'm excited about it!!

Why? As I've mentioned many times before (), October is the month for major-hurricane landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast. It's later in the season when the troughs start digging deeper and recurving cyclones back toward the mainland-- rather than letting them fish out.

Mexico's Pacific coast has had 10 Cat-3+ landfalls since 1949. Of those, 8-- yes, 8!!-- happened in October. Given this, you can see why I have big hopes for the next few weeks.

Following are all Cat-3+ landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949-- showing year, name, date, state (where the center crossed the coast), and intensity. Note that only Kiko 1989 and Lane 2006 were not in October. Also notice that most of the really intense ones hit quite late in the month:

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt***)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

In terms of intensity... The Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959 is the strongest known landfall in this basin and the only Cat 5 on MX's Pacific coast. I'd like to see some contemporary reanalysis on this one-- to verify that it would still be estimated as a Cat 5 by modern standards. Either way, the damage was extreme, and the city of Manzanillo was devastated-- so it was most certainly a very intense cyclone. Madeline 1976-- another very destructive event-- is considered No. 2. Kenna 2002-- the inner core of which narrowly missed Puerto Vallarta-- is considered No. 3.

In terms of regions... Note that Sinaloa is kind of like MX's Florida: half the majors landfalled in that state.

(I'm currently doing some intensive research Re: landfalls in this basin, and-- as on the Atlantic side-- some of the best-track data are weird and contradictory. Any data that seem odd are flagged with asterisks (***). I'll be writing to the NHC about these items once I finish my research.)

Note: This post contains material from previous online posts I've made. Yes, I recycled it.

[HurricaneJosh]

And like climatological clockwork, the 12Z Euro shows a small cyclone forming and recurving S of the Baja and into Sinaloa around Day 8 or 9. It's far out and it seems to suggest weakening before landfall, but, hey-- it's a start.

[HurricaneJosh]

I haven't checked myself, but Jorge says the GFS is hinting at something as well-- a weak, W-moving low. Nothing too exciting yet, but it's cool that it's showing something, I guess.

[k***]

And like climatological clockwork, the 12Z Euro shows a small cyclone forming and recurving S of the Baja and into Sinaloa around Day 8 or 9. It's far out and it seems to suggest weakening before landfall, but, hey-- it's a start.

should be easier to get a recurve with all that troughing showing up on the models

[HurricaneJosh]

should be easier to get a recurve with all that troughing showing up on the models

Totally. I'm hoping the next couple of cyclone might start makin' them sexy, October-style right hooks.

[Floydbuster]

Josh gets in Irwin.

Sounds sexy

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh gets in Irwin.

Sounds sexy

My grandpa's name was Irwin, so that would be kind of cool, I guess.

[aslkahuna]

Hilary is unwinding-- it's no longer a hurricane.

Interestingly, the NHC sent out a recon plane to investigate it earlier in the day, at which time they verified it was still a hurricane. (Too bad they didn't send out recon when the cyclone was really looking super-hawt a few days ago. That would have been awesome.)

Anyhoo, winds are down to 60 kt and it'll soon die a lame, lonely death over the cool EPAC waters W of the Baja. Blah.

Actually, studying how a storm unwinds over cooler waters and under shear has applications for forecasting in other basins as well. The area off Spain in the ATL, off the west coast of Australia, and in the SCS from October through April for example. Also the decoupling of the mid levels of the storm from the LLCC in the Fall has major implications for the SW US at times.

[HurricaneJosh]

Actually, studying how a storm unwinds over cooler waters and under shear has applications for forecasting in other basins as well. The area off Spain in the ATL, off the west coast of Australia, and in the SCS from October through April for example. Also the decoupling of the mid levels of the storm from the LLCC in the Fall has major implications for the SW US at times.

Ah, OK. I hear ya. Makes sense. I guess I just get so caught up in the sexy stuff, I forget that cyclones on life support are also relevant.

P.S. Hope ya had a nice birthday!

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z Euro still shows it: a low forms well offshore (near 110W) around Day 6, develops into a significant cyclone by Day 8, and then accelerates NE to landfall (after some weakening) around Day 10. The track is very Kenna-esque, with the system crossing the coast near or just N of Puerto Vallarta.

I guess it's encouraging to see the Euro sticking to the same basic scenario for two runs in a row.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Euro is still showing this feature-- for the third run in a row-- this time as as hawt microcane hitting Sinaloa around Day 10:

[HurricaneJosh]

Big thanks to the staff for keeping this thread on topic.

[HurricaneJosh]

Jorge refused to acknowledge that he's excited about the Euro. He's too busy sucking the teat of the GFS to notice other models.

The Canadian agrees with the Euro.

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z Euro is not quite as pronounced with the feature, delaying its development and showing it still well offshore-- but heading slowly toward the coast-- by Day 10. This run also shows a smaller feature developing very close the the S coast of MX and moving ashore around Day 8.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Euro continues to hint at a system threatening MX in the long range. The 12Z has a cyclone forming way out near 120W around Day 6, then accelerating toward the coast and coming ashore a little N of Puerto Vallarta a bit after Day 10.

Meanwhile, there's a new Lemon several hundred mi SW of Acapulco.

Waitin' waitin'.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Euro is still a bit changeable from run to run-- the details of next week won't quite gel.

The 00Z run shows twin lows by around Day 6, with one near the coast and the other way out to sea. The closer one becomes a small, strong cyclone that moves N and comes ashore near Acapulco around Day 9.

[Ed Lizard]

Selfish IMBY reasons for hoping Josh finally gets an EPAC storm.

.

[HurricaneJosh]

It's nice to see both the Euro and GFS now showing a landfalling cyclone in the 8-10-day range-- although the solutions are still quite different.

Our first big Pacific storms of the season are moving into SoCal midweek-- and while I hate the rainy weather, it reminds me that we're getting into the troughy/recurvy autumnal pattern. Woo hoo!

[am19psu]

Seems pretty obvious SOMETHING will form in the basin late this week. The GFS develops a storm around 110W on Friday while the Euro ops develops two storms - one near 120W and another near 105W. There will be a Kelvin wave moving through the basin around that time, so the genesis makes sense, but I have a feeling it will be another day or two until the models converge on a solution.

Of course, the big question is when/where does recurvature happen. All of the available guidance suggests that some turn back to the northeast is likely, especially with MJO forced trough expected on the West Coast next weekend. If you look at the European ensemble members, most show the farther east storm hooking back towards mainland MX early next week (though the Euro ops is on the extreme eastern end of the ensemble guidance envelope).

If I were looking anywhere, it'd be towards Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo in about 7-9 days. Intensity is always a crap chute, but with the MJO headed to Phase 7/8 during that period, upper level conditions should be conducive for a strong hurricane.

[wxmx]

Seems pretty obvious SOMETHING will form in the basin late this week. The GFS develops a storm around 110W on Friday while the Euro ops develops two storms - one near 120W and another near 105W. There will be a Kelvin wave moving through the basin around that time, so the genesis makes sense, but I have a feeling it will be another day or two until the models converge on a solution.

Of course, the big question is when/where does recurvature happen. All of the available guidance suggests that some turn back to the northeast is likely, especially with MJO forced trough expected on the West Coast next weekend. If you look at the European ensemble members, most show the farther east storm hooking back towards mainland MX early next week (though the Euro ops is on the extreme eastern end of the ensemble guidance envelope).

If I were looking anywhere, it'd be towards Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo in about 7-9 days. Intensity is always a crap chute, but with the MJO headed to Phase 7/8 during that period, upper level conditions should be conducive for a strong hurricane.

Strongly agree and right on cue. There's a 10-12 day window opportunity before the EPac shuts down for any interesting landfalling prospects. The better chances are for a storm never crossing 110W but just far enough from the montainous southern MX. I would only extend your area of interest a little farther north to Mazatlan... but that's just because we are talking a week+ ahead of time...