HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Here are some vague analogs (since 1949) for the Euro scenario being shown-- i.e., a landfall on the SW coast of the Baja Peninsula (Puerto San Carlos to Cabo San Lucas): 1949 - No. 4 - 75 kt 1967 - Katrina - 75 kt 1968 - Pauline - 75 kt 1973 - Irah - 70 kt 1977 - Doreen - 65 kt 1995 - Henriette - 85 kt 1996 - Fausto - 75 kt 2008 - Norbert - 90 kt 2009 - Jimena - 90 kt As can be seen, hurricanes hitting this swath of coast are never very strong-- with only a few Cat 2s. (Intensity estimates for many of the pre-1970 storms are just rough estimates, and you'll find that 75 kt is a generic Cat-1 value in the database.) Note: Storm No. 8 from 1957 had a track roughly similar to what the Euro is showing: it went way out past 120W before hooking back toward the MX coast to come ashore with winds of 75 kt. (I didn't list it here because it came ashore N of the designated zone.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'm generally leaning towards a Baja Impact. Intensity is very tricky as it seems most of the weakening will be thermodynamically driven. 80 knots might actually be on the high end, especially if it stalls and drifts for 48 hours or so like the ECWMF suggests. Oh. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 They keep the intensity steady at 944 mb/125 kt for the 2 am PDT advisory-- no increase. I'll bet it's because the cloud tops around the center warmed slightly. Let's see what the Discussion says. The motion is nearly due-W now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Interesting Discussion tidbit Re: the forecast track late in the period: THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5 BUT REMAINS WELL LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. They're definitely starting to show a rightward bend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hilary really bombed yesterday. From Cat 1, it increased by one category with each 3-hr advisory until it reached Cat 4: 08 am PDT: 065 kt (Cat 1) 11 am PDT: 075 kt 02 pm PDT: 090 kt (Cat 2) 05 pm PDT: 100 kt (Cat 3) 08 pm PDT: 115 kt (Cat 4) 11 pm PDT: 125 kt Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'm not worried about SSTs at all. I'm worried about RW prior to landfall on Baja due to dry air entrainment and/or shear increasing ahead of the West Coast s/w. If the Euro track is right, Hilary will never be over waters cooler than 27.5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Obviously offpeak now, but man does she still look hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 maybe not too far off peak...the eye does look a little drier than it was during the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'm not worried about SSTs at all. I'm worried about RW prior to landfall on Baja due to dry air entrainment and/or shear increasing ahead of the West Coast s/w. If the Euro track is right, Hilary will never be over waters cooler than 27.5C. Upwelling my friend... We saw it with Nate with a deeper thermocline in the Gulf of Mexico, and that OHC is piss poor in the EPac this year. If this stalls or drifts like the ECWMF suggests, SSTs will become a problem if the warmest the waters have to offer is a marginal 27.5C for a 24-48 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Upwelling my friend... We saw it with Nate with a deeper thermocline in the Gulf of Mexico, and that OHC is piss poor in the EPac this year. If this stalls or drifts like the ECWMF suggests, SSTs will become a problem if the warmest the waters have to offer is a marginal 27.5C for a 24-48 hour period. What time period are you looking at this thing stalling? I'm not seeing what you are talking about in the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 reminds me of felix...also it seems like the CDO is shrinking without degrading much...interesting http://tropic.ssec.w...odtjava09E.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 In regards the future track of Hilary, the 12 GFS is a lot different- it shears the weak trough digging into the SW out leaving Hilary behind, no Baja hit if this is true. The models are really having trouble right now, will be curious to see what the 12Z Euro does. I have an interest since I will be in southern CA, UT and AZ for two weeks beginning Oct 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hillary and her inner vorts. Hillary has an evil face. Midtone adjust for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hillary and her inner vorts. Hillary has an evil face. Midtone adjust for fun. Hey, cool pic, Steve! The adjustment is great-- it brings out the sexy details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Euro is out, has Hilary coming close to southern Baja, but that is after a stall which causes major weakening. Nice storm to look at now, but may not have much if any land impacts other than some moisture eventually making it to the southern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 My skepticism with Hilary was outlined a couple days ago, going past 110W Hilary would start to effectively weaken, and the fragile trough would have a hard time trying to turn it back to MX. The 12z GFS shows exactly that, and the Euro has a further west storm struggling to get hooked up by a weaker trough. There are just too many things that can go wrong for a strong landfall, and the few good ones are becoming decreasingly fewer. I give Hilary <10% of being > cat 1 at LF, if there's one (closer to 5% probably). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Still looking awesome and beautiful this afternoon-- definitely not deteriorating yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 The far view once again shows that this is a small cyclone. The 64-kt radius is 25 nmi in all quads-- a very symmetric wind field, which is not surprising, given the satellite presentation. That doesn't seem that small, though-- as it looks even smaller in the imagery: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 sick Omg, seriously. Just so hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Omg, seriously. Just so hawt. Keep it in your pants Josh Appears to be deepening again. Who cares thow since no recon will be in to verify that it's a 915 cat5 not a 945 cat4. It rivals Felix for the smallest storm I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Keep it in your pants Josh Appears to be deepening again. Who cares thow since no recon will be in to verify that it's a 915 cat5 not a 945 cat4. It rivals Felix for the smallest storm I've seen. Category 5 is my estimate, this storm looks perfect. If it is not a Cat 5 there is nothing stopping it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Category 5 is my estimate, this storm looks perfect. If it is not a Cat 5 there is nothing stopping it... I'd say it's a catagory Felix. Because all I have to go on is the satellite image and Felix is the storm it looks most similar to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I'd say it's a catagory Felix. Because all I have to go on is the satellite image and Felix is the storm it looks most similar to. What is the reasoning behind no recon mission. They are flying into Ophelia! A ragged little storm that has almost no chance of effecting land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 No TRMM or Cloudsat Passes within the next 12 hours. Man, that's a epic cane right there. sheesh.:blush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Epic microwave imagery of Hillary. This is over the past 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 The new (8 pm PDT) advisory keeps Hilary's intensity at 125 kt (although the pressure's down a couple of mb, to 940 mb). Avila's Discussion has two interesting tidbits: THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG CONVECTION... BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE. IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO NOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I honestly have no idea why recon is flying out into Ophelia rather than this thing. What a waste of resources in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I honestly have no idea why recon is flying out into Ophelia rather than this thing. What a waste of resources in my opinion. I have to agree here, I mean this could be a Cat 5 hurricane and we aren't getting recon on it but instead we are checking out a sheared out tropical storm that will more than likely fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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