wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The basin is going to end well below average in the number of NS, but almost all have been quality stuff...total opposite from the NATL basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The basin is going to end well below average in the number of NS, but almost all have been quality stuff...total opposite from the NATL basin I think the contrast between Ophelia and Hilary right now is a good representation of what the ATL v. the EPAC has been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'd guess Hurricane Hilary has winds of 150 mph right now. that's probably about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 this can't even score a raw T above 6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 this can't even score a raw T above 6.2 Warming eye and round right now, this is making a run for a 5 if trend continues for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 The new (11 pm PDT) advisory has the intensity at 944 mb/125 kt, which sounds right to me. P.S. I wish folks would attach some of the porn rather than linking it-- to ensure we have some of these images for posterity. It only takes an extra second to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hawtest of the year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0z HWRF - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 If that eye can clear out... This can make it to a cat. 5. Latest microwave continutes spectacular presentation although eye could be warmer. It's cat5 chance is right now since SSTs start to drop off beyond this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 0z HWRF - The hurricane models are very c*ckteasy with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The hurricane models are very c*ckteasy with this one. Yep. Per the norm they are a major tease in the EPAC. 0z GFDL clips the tip of the Baja as it's moving NE into the GOC. Very much the outliers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Far view-- for perspective. It really is a dainty little thing. If the center passed over Port Lavaca, Galveston wouldn't even know a cyclone was coming shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Still early. Anniversary of the big one (formation wise) is a month away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The new (11 pm PDT) advisory has the intensity at 944 mb/125 kt, which sounds right to me. P.S. I wish folks would attach some of the porn rather than linking it-- to ensure we have some of these images for posterity. It only takes an extra second to do that. mine will never be deleted...i have an actual account at imgur. attaching is annoying and sucks up my finite space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Still early. Anniversary of the big one (formation wise) is a month away. You mean the great '59 cyclone? Yeah, October is the month for major landfalls on this side. Even this is a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 mine will never be deleted...i have an actual account at imgur. attaching is annoying and sucks up my finite space OK, if the images will remain in perpetuity, that's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 the eye is getting nice and crisp now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 the IR loop on the NASA site is just ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 the IR loop on the NASA site is just ridiculous Link, pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link, pls. \ http://weather.msfc....astconusir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 The 00Z Euro has shifted a tad S, I believe-- bringing a strong cyclone ashore on the S Baja Peninsula (about halfway between Cabo San Lucas and Puerto San Carlos) at hr 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hilary has the tell tale signature of a category five hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Phil is lurking. I wonder what he's thinking Re: landfall prospects down the road. Perhaps he might indulge me with some thoughts. Of course I'm under no illusion that this thing of beauty would come ashore in six days looking so exquisitely perfect as it does now. I'd be surprised if it looks this good tomorrow, to be perfectly frank. Cat-4 microcanes are inherently delicate, ephemeral creations. But I wonder if it might come ashore in some other worthy form-- like a larger, less fancy 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Best weather event going on by far right now. As well as the best looking cane on this side of the Hemisphere this year. I agree with Josh however.... not sure how this will look once it gets closer to the cooler waters and not as favorable environment once it begins the hook north.. Safe to say it will peak soon...... and probably hold steady for a bit before eye wall cycles kick in and gradually cooling waters as it turns more toward the north. Just have to wait and see how sharp this thing hooks.. more gradual less threatening... . :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Best weather event going on by far right now. As well as the best looking cane on this side of the Hemisphere this year. I agree with Josh however.... not sure how this will look once it gets closer to the cooler waters and not as favorable environment once it begins the hook north.. Safe to say it will peak soon...... and probably hold steady for a bit before eye wall cycles kick in and gradually cooling waters as it turns more toward the north. Just have to wait and see how sharp this thing hooks.. more gradual less threatening... . :X Agreed. The earlier and the sharper the hook, the more threatening this will be to MX. It looks like the models are reaching a sort of broad consensus that it will eventually head toward the coast, but of course they disagree greatly Re: timing, intensity, and latitude of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Phil is lurking. I wonder what he's thinking Re: landfall prospects down the road. Perhaps he might indulge me with some thoughts. Of course I'm under no illusion that this thing of beauty would come ashore in six days looking so exquisitely perfect as it does now. I'd be surprised if it looks this good tomorrow, to be perfectly frank. Cat-4 microcanes are inherently delicate, ephemeral creations. But I wonder if it might come ashore in some other worthy form-- like a larger, less fancy 'cane. Yea I'm pretty sure Hilary is reaching it's peak intensity this morning. If that eye cools just a touch more, 140 knots is not out of the question. It's beyond that's obviously the most interesting, from a landfall perspective. While this system is certainly deep, it's also very small in overall area, so it's having a smaller influence on the synoptic features than say what Irene or Katia had in the Atlantic even though both of those systems were weaker. With that said, I'm still in support of the storm aiding to create the weakness in the 500mb ridge as it increases in size over the next 3 days due to EWRCs. The ECWMF seems to have a good handle of this. The problem is that while the ridge breaks down enough north of Hilary to turn it NE, the ridge does not collapse all the way in the east pacific west of the system so the storm is slowed to a craw as it moves NE. This could allow for upwelling and shear to do a number to the intensity. We still need not only a further south track than the ECWMF but also a faster one as well to allow this system to have the chance as a landfalling major Hurricane. That would only happen if a much deeper trough picks up Hilary or a stronger piece of the ridge develops southeast of the system rather than remaining northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Yea I'm pretty sure Hilary is reaching it's peak intensity this morning. If that eye cools just a touch more, 140 knots is not out of the question. It's beyond that's obviously the most interesting, from a landfall perspective. While this system is certainly deep, it's also very small in overall area, so it's having a smaller influence on the synoptic features than say what Irene or Katia had in the Atlantic even though both of those systems are weaker. With that said, I'm still in support of the storm aiding to create the weakness in the 500mb ridge as it increases in size over the next 3 days due to EWRC. The ECWMF seems to have a good handle of this. The problem is that while the ridge breaks down enough north of Hilary to turn it NE, the ridge does not collapse all the way in the east pacific west of the system so the storm is slowed to a craw as it moves NE. This could allow for upwelling and shear to do a number to the intensity. We still need not only a further south track than the ECWMF but also a faster one as well to allow this system to have the chance as a landfalling major Hurricane. That would only happen if a much deeper trough picks up Hilary or a stronger piece of the ridge develops southeast of the system rather than remaining northwest. All makes sense. So what's your long-range call? Does it come ashore in MX? If so, on the Baja or on the mainland? And how strong? Lemme guess-- a weakening 80 kt on the Baja? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 All makes sense. So what's your long-range call? Does it come ashore in MX? If so, on the Baja or on the mainland? And how strong? Lemme guess-- a weakening 80 kt on the Baja? I'm generally leaning towards a Baja Impact. Intensity is very tricky as it seems most of the weakening will be thermodynamically driven. 80 knots might actually be on the high end, especially if it stalls and drifts for 48 hours or so like the ECWMF suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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