Floydbuster Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hurricane Hilary looks fantastic at this hour. The blob to it's west reminds me a bit of what Hurricane Ivan had during a somewhat forgotten portion of it's duration, when it was a Cat 4 near 10N aimed at the Windward Islands. If anything, I believe this is helping to feed moisture into Hilary, allowing further deepening. If the core gets too close to Mexico, then the risk of hurricane conditions on the coast becomes significant. Look on the bright side, this could have been a micro-cane coiling up next to Fort Lauderdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hurricane Hilary looks fantastic at this hour. The blob to it's west reminds me a bit of what Hurricane Ivan had during a somewhat forgotten portion of it's duration, when it was a Cat 4 near 10N aimed at the Windward Islands. If anything, I believe this is helping to feed moisture into Hilary, allowing further deepening. If the core gets too close to Mexico, then the risk of hurricane conditions on the coast becomes significant. Look on the bright side, this could have been a micro-cane coiling up next to Fort Lauderdale. yeah, i was thinking that too...we narrowly averted disaster there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Jorge is extremely negativo Re: the prospects for a quality landfall. It's just a total buzzkill to chat with him about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Jorge is extremely negativo Re: the prospects for a quality landfall. It's just a total buzzkill to chat with him about it. I think the default position should include a robust amount of skepticism....you know better than i do, but landfalls are hard to come by and quality ones are even harder...couple that with the uncertainty over the trough and you have to realistically set the bar pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think the default position should include a robust amount of skepticism....you know better than i do, but landfalls are hard to come by and quality ones are even harder...couple that with the uncertainty over the trough and you have to realistically set the bar pretty low. Oh, for sure. I'm getting all hard for this one simply because it's peak season and I just need something to fantasize about-- anything. Climo alone indicates that anything taking the Euro track-- that is, coming in from the E and hitting the W coast of the Baja-- wouldn't be any stronger than 90 kt, as per the strongest known analog (Norbert 2008). Add to that the awful SSTs just N of the S tip of the Peninsula, and this is a tough setup. That having been said, I'm holding out hope for a S evolution in the modeling-- more toward the GFDL/HWRF solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hurricane Hilary looks fantastic at this hour. The blob to it's west reminds me a bit of what Hurricane Ivan had during a somewhat forgotten portion of it's duration, when it was a Cat 4 near 10N aimed at the Windward Islands. If anything, I believe this is helping to feed moisture into Hilary, allowing further deepening. If the core gets too close to Mexico, then the risk of hurricane conditions on the coast becomes significant. Look on the bright side, this could have been a micro-cane coiling up next to Fort Lauderdale. One interesting feature of the MCS to the west of Hilary (the blob we have been referencing) is that when you animate the visible loops it seems to have anticyclonic rotation (which is also evident in the way the convection is propagating). While a lot of this might just be a byproduct of the outflow of Hilary, but it seems like there is some mid-level anticyclonic motion as well. Pretty interesting to see such a feature persist with the strong cyclonic rotation of Hilary to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Oh, for sure. I'm getting all hard for this one simply because it's peak season and I just need something to fantasize about-- anything. Climo alone indicates that anything taking the Euro track-- that is, coming in from the E and hitting the W coast of the Baja-- wouldn't be any stronger than 90 kt, as per the strongest known analog (Norbert 2008). Add to that the awful SSTs just N of the S tip of the Peninsula, and this is a tough setup. That having been said, I'm holding out hope for a S evolution in the modeling-- more toward the GFDL/HWRF solutions. Patience grasshopper. The NALT hasn't sung its swan song just yet. October has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Patience grasshopper. The NALT hasn't sung its swan song just yet. October has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Patience grasshopper. The NALT hasn't sung its swan song just yet. October has a lot of potential. not while the EPAC is active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Jorge is extremely negativo Re: the prospects for a quality landfall. It's just a total buzzkill to chat with him about it. I think there is a cutoff point in mind to what we could expect with Hilary in regards to a significant landfall. Anything north and west of Cabo San Lucas is likely to not be a very significant landfall (anything above cat 1). The reason for this is that you would need a NNW or due N motion of a small TC to really have any hope of getting anything stronger to strike on the W coast of Baja California due to the warm SST configuration. Interestingly enough this is exactly what happened with one of your previous chases with Jimena (2009) which was a small TC that took a NNW track and make landfall as a significant system on the west coast of Baja California. However, even if we were to get a duplicate of this situation this year, its important to note SSTs are not as high as 2009 (which was an El Nino year). Thus, I think if you want to see anything above cat 1 hurricane intensity for a landfall, it will have to occur on the S or E coastline of Baja California or along the West Coast of Mainland Mexico. While I think the chances of a landfall with Hilary are increasing, I am much more hesitant to support a track that will go far enough east to satisfy the above criteria. At this time the GFDL and the HWRF remain the only two models that show the above criteria verifying. Thus there is very good reason to be very skeptical of the above solution actually verifying since both models seem to have a nasty right bias in this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 not that it matters and I agree with you analysis (which is why i snipped it out) but that map has to be wrong. there is no way that SST's in the sea of cortez as running <20C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think there is a cutoff point in mind to what we could expect with Hilary in regards to a significant landfall. Anything north and west of Cabo San Lucas is likely to not be a very significant landfall (anything above cat 1). The reason for this is that you would need a NNW or due N motion of a small TC to really have any hope of getting anything stronger to strike on the W coast of Baja California due to the warm SST configuration. Interestingly enough this is exactly what happened with one of your previous chases with Jimena (2009) which was a small TC that took a NNW track and make landfall as a significant system on the west coast of Baja California. However, even if we were to get a duplicate of this situation this year, its important to note SSTs are not as high as 2009 (which was an El Nino year). Thus, I think if you want to see anything above cat 1 hurricane intensity for a landfall, it will have to occur on the S or E coastline of Baja California or along the West Coast of Mainland Mexico. While I think the chances of a landfall with Hilary are increasing, I am much more hesitant to support a track that will go far enough east to satisfy the above criteria. At this time the GFDL and the HWRF remain the only two models that show the above criteria verifying. Thus there is very good reason to be very skeptical of the above solution actually verifying since both models seem to have a nasty right bias in this basin. Agreed, and see my posts above Re: the history of landfalling cyclones on the W coast of the Baja, as well as crappy SSTs this year. We're on the same page. The GFDL/HWRF scenario would be waaaaay more interesting, as Sinaloa is a much better zone for strong landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 not that it matters and I agree with you analysis (which is why i snipped it out) but that map has to be wrong. there is no way that SST's in the sea of cortez as running <20C Yea there seems to be a data problem up there... that information is obviously not correct. Here is a better SST image from Ryan Maye's Page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The two camps-- with the hurricane models showing a rather provocative scenario. Not to grasp at straws, but the cyclone's track has had solid N component from the beginning. It is not going W as per the GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 what does the GFS ENKF show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Agreed, and see my posts above Re: the history of landfalling cyclones on the W coast of the Baja, as well as crappy SSTs this year. We're on the same page. The GFDL/HWRF scenario would be waaaaay more interesting, as Sinaloa is a much better zone for strong landfalls. Haha I seem to have a tendency to repeating a lot of what you have to say without reading before when you have already explained the situation much more concisely Certainly agree the GFDL and HWRF tracks are what you want to look for for a Major Hurricane landfall just merely basing things on SSTs. Unfortunately neither model has had a good track record this year with major rightward biases in the East Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Haha I seem to have a tendency to repeating a lot of what you have to say without reading before when you have already explained the situation much more concisely No prob. Certainly agree the GFDL and HWRF tracks are what you want to look for for a Major Hurricane landfall just merely basing things on SSTs. Unfortunately neither model has had a good track record this year with major rightward biases in the East Pacific. They gotta be right one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 she is going to be absolutely filthy on this next microwave scan...look at that ring of tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 what does the GFS ENKF show? W to WNW motion to 20N/120W in 7 days. FIM is also identical, but starts a NE turn in about 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 W to WNW motion to 20N/120W in 7 days. FIM is also identical, but starts a NE turn in about 6 days. What do you think of those solutions versus the hurricane models that show a much earlier turn? Do you expect this to reach MX, and-- if yes-- as a 'cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Doesn't take much to get that pinhole eye spun up to a cat 4 or 5, which appears to be happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 she is going to be absolutely filthy on this next microwave scan...look at that ring of tops Yep. Microcane du jour. The thick Convective core and lack of full outer eyewall argues that we are still 12+ hours away from EWRC as well. This might very well peak somewhere between cat4-5 while its under 30 degree Celsius temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 this one looks to be going all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Probably a mid-high cat 4 maybe cat 5 right now. Pinhole eye with very cold cloud tops around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Wow-- just megahawt. The latest intensity (as of 8 pm PDT) is 948 mb/115 kt. The wind field remains very small: 64-kt radius = 20 nmi, 34-kt radius = 70 nmi. Man, what I'd give to chase one like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Probably a mid-high cat 4 maybe cat 5 right now. Pinhole eye with very cold cloud tops around the eye. It's close...too bad we'll never know because we have no recon scheduled and dvorak sucks on tiny systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Damn!, she sure looks nice, but she's already moving just north of due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'd guess Hurricane Hilary has winds of 150 mph right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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