HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Interesting-- thanks, Phil. A recurve just a bit further S would mean a track over the much, much higher SSTs off Sinaloa. That could get way interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's strengthening-- up to 45 kt-- and seems to be moving N of the previous forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The GFDL and HWRF are showing some yumminess-- a recurve into Sinaloa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Phil's lurking, but he hasn't uttered a peep this evening. Perhaps he's worried I'll scold him for being negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Haha Josh... I'll keep this post balanced, but slightly concerned how rapidly Hilary is intensifying at this time. The problem is the ridge is still rather weak and if the system becomes much stronger than what the model guidece is expecting in the next 24 hours, it could push Hilary rather close to the Mexican coastline (a la GFDL). While that certainly seems like a good thing for landfall prospects down the road, for chasing prospects we obviously don't want an early landfall because the circulation is still pretty small and could unravel rather quickly if the core moves ashore. I still think the chances for an early landfall are rather low, but it's something worth keeping an eye on in the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise it looks like Hilary might already be developing a tight inner core, and as long as it remains over water rapid intensification into a cat 2-4 hurricane seems like a safe bet during the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Haha Josh... I'll keep this post balanced, but slightly concerned how rapidly Hilary is intensifying at this time. The problem is the ridge is still rather weak and if the system becomes must stronger than what the model guidece is expecting in the next 24 hours, it could push Hilary rather close to the Mexican coastline (a la GFDL). While that certainly seems like a good thing for landfall prospects down the road, for chasing prospects we obviously don't want an early landfall because the circulation is still pretty small and could unravel rather quickly if the core moves ashore. I still think the chances for an early landfall are rather low, but it's something worth keeping an eye on in the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise it looks like Hilary might already be developing a tight inner core, and as long as it remains over water rapid intensification into a cat 2-4 hurricane seems like a safe bet during the same time frame. Interesting-- thanks. So what do you think about longer term? Do you buy 1) fish, 2) N recurve into the Baja, or 3) S recurve into Sinaloa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Interesting-- thanks. So what do you think about longer term? Do you buy 1) fish, 2) N recurve into the Baja, or 3) S recurve into Sinaloa? If this gets stronger earlier, like I'm expecting, I don't see this system as an auto fish. With the PNA expected to stay negative, the mean 500mb trough over the West Coast will tend to erode the ridge. Thus with the expectation of a strong TC I think there is a tendency for the weakness to be stronger than indicated in the modeling and I'd be inclined to lean towards one of the two recurving options. I'm not sold on which one yet though. The GFDL is probably too aggressive to the right, although a solution between the 12z ECWMF and the 00z HWRF is certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 If this gets stronger earlier, like I'm expecting, I don't see this system as an auto fish. With the PNA expected to stay negative, the mean 500mb trough over the West Coast will tend to erode the ridge. Thus with the expectation of a strong TC I think there is a tendency for the weakness to be stronger than indicated in the modeling and I'd be inclined to lean towards one of the two recurving options. I'm not sold on which one yet though. The GFDL is probably too aggressive to the right, although a solution between the 12z ECWMF and the 00z HWRF is certainly plausible. OK, very cool. (You're almost gettin' back on my good side. ) It's funny the way the EPAC side is the opposite of the NATL-- the fast deepening and earlier recurve make mainland impact is more likely, not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The 11 pm PDT advisory has winds up to 50 kt. It's pulling together pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The 00Z ECMWF gives you something chaseable, who knows, maybe the dye is now being cast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The 00Z ECMWF gives you something chaseable, who knows, maybe the dye is now being cast? Yup, it's not bad. It definitely has not trended N from the 12Z run, so that's good. The S tip of the Baja Peninsula or mainland MX would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The cyclone is quickly strengthening-- with winds now up to 60 kt, as per the new latenight intermediate advisory. At this rate, it'll be a 'cane by morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Lots can still go wrong with the trough off the WC, but I'm getting more bullish on Hilary getting to Baja as a decent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I admit knowing little about the tropics, however, I am quite surprised that the EPAC has only just gotten to "H"...must be a quiet seaon, as the Atlantic has made it all the way to "O"...in general, I always thought the EPAC averaged more TC's in a season than the Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I admit knowing little about the tropics, however, I am quite surprised that the EPAC has only just gotten to "H"...must be a quiet seaon, as the Atlantic has made it all the way to "O"...in general, I always thought the EPAC averaged more TC's in a season than the Atlantic... Actually, usually EPAC + NATL named storms are pretty constant. When the NATL is active, the EPAC is usually quiet and vice versa. It has to do with the disruption or amplification of the Walker Circulation via ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wow, the Mexican Weather Service website got hella renovated recently... Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 that's quite the tumor it has this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I can't remember the last time the hurricane models didn't recurve a storm back into mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I can't remember the last time the hurricane models didn't recurve a storm back into mexico. note that the BAMD though is the furthest right, giving some credit that a stronger system might have a tendency to be a little further right than the global model consensus. While the GFDL and HWRF might be a bit too far right, I think they are worth a little bit of weighting and I like where the TVCN consensus model is right now with takes into account the GFS/GFDL/HWRF/ECWMF/UKMET consensus. In any event, this is well on its way to becoming a major... some micro-cane characteristics as well. The current appearance and potential track in many ways reminds me of Juliette (2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 that's a real nice mw shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 that's quite the tumor it has this morning You'd think that big a growth on her forehead would be disrupting Hilary, wouldn't you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 maybe she'll fujiwara with her stillborn twin tumor thingie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Surprised no mention of the Euro track, looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Surprised no mention of the Euro track, looks potent. HPC mentioned a slower progression W in their 17Z conference call with the NHC. The big question is just how fast the re-curve occurs. We'll see what the euro ensembles offer a bit later and over night. Someone in the SW could get a lot of heavy rainfall if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hillary looks pretty healthy on satellite right now. About time for the basin to fire one up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 i can run the nasa visible loop all day...too bad the sun will be down soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The new (2 pm PDT) advisory has winds up to 90 kt, with more rapid strengthening anticipated. They now bring it up to Cat 4 (115 kt) within 24 hr. Interestingly, they're sticking with the WNW track for now, although they note the sharp N turn shows in the 'cane models. By the way... This system is quite small. The 64-kt radius of 20 nmi isn't crazy small, but the 34-kt radius of 70 nmi kind of is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Looking at the WV imagery, I think Hilary is finally pushing outflow into the tumor. It looked earlier like the tumor might be restricting outflow to the West. Edit to add vis for posterity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The 12Z Euro track is still weird-- brings it way out to almost 115W, then hooks it really sharply to the ENE, for a strong landfall on the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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