am19psu Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Of course not-- cuz you don't like to give me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 At least Adam has a sense of humor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 At least Adam has a sense of humor... It's actually a response to my behind-the-scenes trolling of him. He's been so bearish this year, I've been calling him fozziebear. (Forget that he's been right-- it's still made me mad! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 The disturbance continues to organize. It looks like the models are in good agreement that Hilary is going to stay offshore as it moves WNW and parallel to the MX coast. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Adam sent me an interestin' eMail this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Adam sent me an interestin' eMail this morning. October Adam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Up to 90%. 96E sure appears to be 'on the way' to being a sizeable cyclone. It will interesting to see if it pulls a Jimena and toys with Cabo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Up to 90%. 96E sure appears to be 'on the way' to being a sizeable cyclone. It will interesting to see if it pulls a Jimena and toys with Cabo... Indeed. Adam ignited a slight tingle about it today. Just a slight one. Methinks it was deliberate mischief on his part-- although of course he'd deny it if confronted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Oh, the disturbance is now TD 9E. The NHC brings it up to a hurricane by 48 hr and 85 kt by 96 hr, and-- as per the well-clustered models-- they keep it moving parallel to and offshore of the MX coastline through 120 hr. But I wonder what will happen beyond that timeframe. Anybody? Fozziebear...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Forgive me... but as we flirt with October, it's hard not to fantasize a little about some past late-season cyclones that made that sexy hook-- rather than just blastin' out to sea. How about this treasured memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 But I wonder what will happen beyond that timeframe. Anybody? Fozziebear...? 20-25% chance it curves back east. Dependent on the strength of the trough off the West Coast late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 96.8W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 20-25% chance it curves back east. Dependent on the strength of the trough off the West Coast late next week. 12z models are quite interesting next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 12z models are quite interesting next weekend... like ed lizard said, the lash of st francis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 12z models are quite interesting next weekend... Yer teasin' me. And I ain't gonna fall for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 So the GFS and the Euro are now both showing a very wide, very sharp recurve toward the S Baja Peninsula. It's weird how wide it is-- how far out the cyclone gets before jetting toward the coast. SSTs are marginal in this area, so the exact track-- i.e., how far S or N it is-- will have a significant impact on intensity. Fifty or a hundred miles could make a huge difference. Anyhoo, I'm keepin' an eye on it. Let's call it pre-tingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 For some reason, Adam and Jorge are being very quiet in this here discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 For some reason, Adam and Jorge are being very quiet in this here discussion. They're too busy predicting the next slopgyre... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 For some reason, Adam and Jorge are being very quiet in this here discussion. I'm skeptical Hilary will become anything of interest from a chaser perspective. The trough looks fragile, a little piece of energy digging far enough south to displace the EPac ridging... and to top up things, recurve would start after Hilary is already near 115-120W... a faster/weaker Hilary wouldn't even feel the trough and continue trough it's W journey to meet it's remnant low fate. Yes, the GFDL is farther north in the short term, which is always the case with this model in the EPac, which seems unrealistical given the decent ridge to it's north. Only possibility is for a very slow Hilary, to start recurving at no more than 110W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I'm skeptical Hilary will become anything of interest from a chaser perspective. The trough looks fragile, a little piece of energy digging far enough south to displace the EPac ridging... and to top up things, recurve would start after Hilary is already near 115-120W... a faster/weaker Hilary wouldn't even feel the trough and continue trough it's W journey to meet it's remnant low fate. Yes, the GFDL is farther north in the short term, which is always the case with this model in the EPac, which seems unrealistical given the decent ridge to it's north. Only possibility is for a very slow Hilary, to start recurving at no more than 110W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 I'm skeptical Hilary will become anything of interest from a chaser perspective. The trough looks fragile, a little piece of energy digging far enough south to displace the EPac ridging... and to top up things, recurve would start after Hilary is already near 115-120W... a faster/weaker Hilary wouldn't even feel the trough and continue trough it's W journey to meet it's remnant low fate. Yes, the GFDL is farther north in the short term, which is always the case with this model in the EPac, which seems unrealistical given the decent ridge to it's north. Only possibility is for a very slow Hilary, to start recurving at no more than 110W. Well, I'm sorry I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's supposed to strengthen at a good clip and it's only moving at 5 kt now, so maybe there's substance to the GFDL scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Totally deserved. wxmx is the new fozziebear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's supposed to strengthen at a good clip and it's only moving at 5 kt now, so maybe there's substance to the GFDL scenario. It's moving at 3.5kts in the fastest model, so it's hauling ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's moving at 3.5kts in the fastest model, so it's hauling ass They rounded up. Stop splitting hairs, fozzie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 The 12z GFS forecast is just wacky with the system weakening over the next 48 hours. Its likely one of the reasons why its track is way further south and west than the ECWMF and I don't buy it at all. This only support for this seems to be a subsident phase of the Kelvin wave that is expected to shift into the region over the next 48 hours, but I feel that Hilary has already become established enough that this shouldn't be a major issue, just perhaps somewhat limiting deeper convective development but not preventing intensification. The ECWMF seems a lot more plausible showing the storm hugging the coastline while developing into a formidable hurricane over the next 96 hours. It does move quite a ways offshore by 120 hours, but stalls out for a day before pulling back northeast by 180 hours towards a likely Baja California impact. The stall is really going to kill it themodynamically under marginal SSTs and increasing shear, so there likely wouldn't be a major storm once it shifted back to the NE perfect prog from the ECWMF. However, there are obviously a lot of unknowns beyond 120 hours, and if we ended up with a weaker subtropical ridge things could get more interesting (which is certainly possible given all the weaker pieces of upper level energy laying over a large part of East Pacific). So actually I think the chances of a stronger landfalling storm increase if Hilary can move slower than the current forecast 120 hour track from the NHC, implying the mid-level ridge doesn't build in as much as expected which will leave the door open towards an earlier turn to the NE when the ridge is expected to break down beyond 120 hours. That's what I'm going to pay particular attention to at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.