tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Why aren't there any graphics with 'Fernanda' with the 5 A.M. PDT package on the NHC website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Why aren't there any graphics with 'Fernanda' with the 5 A.M. PDT package on the NHC website? they only update graphics at 2 & 8 am/pm , unless there is something pressing: http://www.nhc.noaa....cgraphics.shtml "Graphics for Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are normally issued every six hours at 2:00 AM PDT, 8:00 AM PDT, 2:00 PM PDT, and 8:00 PM PDT (or 1:00 AM PST, 7:00 AM PST, 1:00 PM PST, and 7:00 PM PST). The graphics will also be updated when intermediate public advisories are issued, and special graphics may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Its trying, but my thinking is that it will have to become a hurricane today or otherwise it won't make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Its trying, but my thinking is that it will have to become a hurricane today or otherwise it won't make it. Technically, for the EPAC, the streak has been broken. This would be a CPAC hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 they only update graphics at 2 & 8 am/pm , unless there is something pressing: http://www.nhc.noaa....cgraphics.shtml "Graphics for Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are normally issued every six hours at 2:00 AM PDT, 8:00 AM PDT, 2:00 PM PDT, and 8:00 PM PDT (or 1:00 AM PST, 7:00 AM PST, 1:00 PM PST, and 7:00 PM PST). The graphics will also be updated when intermediate public advisories are issued, and special graphics may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone." Meant E.D.T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Technically, for the EPAC, the streak has been broken. This would be a CPAC hurricane. someone on s2k said it doesn't matter where it peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 FWIW, ADT has ir at hurricane strength... UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 AUG 2011 Time : 193000 UTC Lat : 13:59:41 N Lon : 141:46:44 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.6 / 979.3mb/ 79.6kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 This basin has choked hardcore 2 years in a row during prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 This basin has choked hardcore 2 years in a row during prime time. Weird how La Nina does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 I saw that mandarin off MX this evening, and I almost got excited-- but the models keep it moving parallel to the shore, and the SHIPS is not enthused Re: intensity. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I saw that mandarin off MX this evening, and I almost got excited-- but the models keep it moving parallel to the shore, and the SHIPS is not enthused Re: intensity. Blah. Looks nice. It is a little too close to land, though. ETA: Board is funky- this posted 3 times. I deleted the other two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looks nice. It is a little too close to land, though. ETA: Board is funky- this posted 3 times. I deleted the other two... Yeah, wow! This caught me by surprise this morning! Wtf? It looks like a good little storm already. Hottest cherry I've seen in a long time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The SHIPS does bring 93 to a strong tropical storm, stronger than a lot of the other guidance. The biggest problem will be 93's interaction with land as it will be difficult for an organized outflow pattern to develop. With that said, 93 does appear to be more organized this morning. I would be surprised if we don't see an upgrade to a tropical depression later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Yeah, wow! This caught me by surprise this morning! Wtf? It looks like a good little storm already. Hottest cherry I've seen in a long time: not LOL, but definitely induced a giggle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 The SHIPS does bring 93 to a strong tropical storm, stronger than a lot of the other guidance. The biggest problem will be 93's interaction with land as it will be difficult for an organized outflow pattern to develop. With that said, 93 does appear to be more organized this morning. I would be surprised if we don't see an upgrade to a tropical depression later today. But it already looks like it has a pretty-good outflow pattern, doesn't it? Check out the fanning out from the center. It's moving roughly parallel to the coast and it looks quite small, so I'd bet land won't hurt it a whole lot, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 But it already looks like it has a good outflow pattern, doesn't it? Check out the fanning out from the center. It's moving roughly parallel to the coast and it looks quite small, so I'd bet land won't hurt it a whole lot, actually. Yeah as soon as I posted the visible, I was thinking the same thing. If it can stay fairly small and compact, it might actually have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Yeah as soon as I posted the visible, I was thinking the same thing. If it can stay fairly small and compact, it might actually have a chance. Yep. But, darn, it sure is close to the coast-- more so than I realized. And I agree with you, that may end up being the biggest inhibitor. I guess that's why the intensity models aren't terribly enthused. Too bad-- it's got a nice shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 not LOL, but definitely induced a giggle... I should probably stop calling 'em that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Water Vapor with some of the forecast tracks overlaid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It looks nice... but I agree with the NHC that this is going inland, and at its small size it doesn't seem likely it will be able to survive the high terrain of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 TD 8E is born-- and it will die almost immediately over MX. What a shame-- it's a nice-looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 And it's already dying over land. Too bad-- with just a little more room, it looked like it could have been something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 RIP TD8 - last advisory just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Interesting... instead of labeling it as the "Remnants of EIGHT-E"... the NHC lists it as "Post-Tropical Cyclone EIGHT-E" on their website... I don't think I've ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 The EPAC has awakened again. The GFS and Euro develope a cyclone hugging the coast of Mexico over the next several days. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109191159 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011091906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962011 EP, 96, 2011091806, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 924W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 927W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 121N, 930W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 932W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 It finally looks like the EPAC will have another tropical cyclone... 96E looks like a slam dunk with very favorable conditions out ahead of it. Looks like a potential hurricane in the making with both the ECWMF and GFS suggesting robust development into at least a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 It finally looks like the EPAC will have another tropical cyclone... 96E looks like a slam dunk with very favorable conditions out ahead of it. Looks like a potential hurricane in the making with both the ECWMF and GFS suggesting robust development into at least a hurricane. We're just about getting to the time of year when EPAC cyclones start recurving toward the coast. I don't have high hopes for this one, although I notice the NOGAPS does swing it N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 We're just about getting to the time of year when EPAC cyclones start recurving toward the coast. I don't have high hopes for this one, although I notice the NOGAPS does swing it N. So does the GFS in the out periods, but I'm not buying it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 So does the GFS in the out periods, but I'm not buying it yet Of course not-- cuz you don't like to give me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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