toad strangler Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 You better hush up. The fish aspect is boring, but there are usually one or two hurricane landfalls a year on this side, and occasionally-- especially in October-- they can be very severe (Cat 4 or even Cat 5). This aside... Since I live in CA, this is kind of like my backyard, so that makes it a little more interesting to me, personally. I chased a really decent, 90-kt Cat 2 on the Baja Peninsula in 2009-- Jimena-- and it was a cool chase. So there. I remember very well your Jimena chase. Off the top of my head you made reference in regards to the final spot where you parked the car just pre core and reflected on the house or two in the immediate area and how sleepy the town seemed out of the windshield? A porch light on or something? As far as your BY goes I totally understand I just find it a bit ironic about how much stress that a CV system brings out in the Atlantic when the potential from Nova Scotia to Venezuela and all in between harvests so much more even with all the recurve fish as opposed to almost certain everyday EPAC fish. It is because the Atlantic rules and you, I, and all of us know it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 I remember very well your Jimena chase. Off the top of my head you made reference in regards to the final spot where you parked the car just pre core and reflected on the house or two in the immediate area and how sleepy the town seemed out of the windshield? A porch light on or something? Wow-- you have a good memory. I;m glad you enjoyed that chase-- I liked it, too. There was something quite exotic about it-- the location, I mean-- and it was a decent cyclone-- probably the tightest little Cat 2 I've been in. It had a good punch and a nice, calm eye. As far as your BY goes I totally understand I just find it a bit ironic about how much stress that a CV system brings out in the Atlantic when the potential from Nova Scotia to Venezuela and all in between harvests so much more even with all the recurve fish as opposed to almost certain everyday EPAC fish. It is because the Atlantic rules and you, I, and all of us know it LOL Yeah, yeah-- of course my heart is always going to be with the NATL. Consider the EPAC sort of like an insurance policy, as it tends to be good when the NATL sucks-- sort of like this year. Re: fish... The thing with EPAC fish is that you pretty-much know they're going to be fish, and the ones that do make landfall in MX do it pretty quickly: the threat materializes and comes to fruition within a couple of days. With these African systems in the NATL, on the other hand, you've got over a week or two of model flip-flopping before the final letdown. I think that's what makes Cape Verde fish so bad-- it's that they always tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 The GFDL and NOGAPS hint at a possible Baja threat. Again, I take it all with a grain of salt, but what these runs tell me is that this is not the typical set-in-stone EPAC fish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: fish... The thing with EPAC fish is that you pretty-much know they're going to be fish, and the ones that do make landfall in MX do it pretty quickly: the threat materializes and comes to fruition within a couple of days. With these African systems in the NATL, on the other hand, you've got over a week or two of model flip-flopping before the final letdown. I think that's what makes Cape Verde fish so bad-- is that they always tease. Ding ding ding... why EPAC fish are, for the most part, more enjoyable to track than ATL fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The GFDL and NOGAPS hint at a possible Baja threat. Again, I take it all with a grain of salt, but what these runs tell me is that this is not the typical set-in-stone EPAC fish: It's a typical set-in-stone fish. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 It's a typical set-in-stone fish. Sorry. The models seem to have converged on that solution today. Yesterday there was a much wider spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Yesterday there was a much wider spread. Only if you include the crap models with no skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 When was the last time the Navy upgraded NoGaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Only if you include the crap models with no skill You're just in meanie mode today. I'll look to others to help keep tropical hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 You're just in meanie mode today. I'll look to others to help keep tropical hope alive. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 You're just in meanie mode today. I'll look to others to help keep tropical hope alive. Just because there won't be the giant MJO pulse JB suggested, the models have to give you hope of a Miami to Hatteras opportunity in about 2 weeks. Hoping Florida, I don't think they'd let anyone on a barrier island off Hatteras for a major. Did you get excited back when there was speculation the trough would catch Linda back in the day? Were you in Cali yet? Sun isn't up on the Fernie floater yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Sorry I'll let it go... this time. But, yeah, it does look like fish food. Blah. It's silly to expect hawt landfalls on this side in August. Really, 90% of the hawtness is in October. If the NATL really sucks this year-- and I'm not sayin' it's gonna-- expect me to be really poring over every little dot of convection on this side come 01 Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 TS Fernanda is strengthening way out over the open EPAC and is now forecast to become a 'cane. TD 7E has formed a couple hundred mi S of Acapulco. It should stay offshore, but it, too, is forecast to be a 'cane. If these two forecasts verify, the EPAC will have 7 'canes for 7 named storms this year. Wow-- as amazing as the NATL is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 TS Fernanda is strengthening way out over the open EPAC and is now forecast to become a 'cane. TD 7E has formed a couple hundred mi S of Acapulco. It should stay offshore, but it, too, is forecast to be a 'cane. If these two forecasts verify, the EPAC will have 7 'canes for 7 named storms this year. Wow-- as amazing as the NATL is lame. A sea of contrasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Ah, the fish basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'll let it go... this time. But, yeah, it does look like fish food. Blah. It's silly to expect hawt landfalls on this side in August. Really, 90% of the hawtness is in October. If the NATL really sucks this year-- and I'm not sayin' it's gonna-- expect me to be really poring over every little dot of convection on this side come 01 Oct. However, it should be noted that in 1992 HR Lester actually did landfall in Baja (near the spur) in August as a Cat 1 and then went on the become a rather robust Tropical Storm event (hurricane force gusts) in southern Arizona on the night of August 23-24. Lester beat Andrew into the 48 by 4 hours thus becoming the first named storm of 1992 to hit the US from either EPAC or ATL. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like Hawaii might just get some action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Updates: Fernanda no longer forecasted to become a 'cane... darn you. Minimal further strengthening indicated in the NHC official forecast. TD7 has been upgraded to TS Greg, track/intensity forecasts remain status quo for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Updates: Fernanda no longer forecasted to become a 'cane... darn you. Minimal further strengthening indicated in the NHC official forecast. TD7 has been upgraded to TS Greg, track/intensity forecasts remain status quo for the most part. Ha! Thanks. I was just about to post exactly these two items. I'm pissed at Fernanda for ruining the hawt streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Ha! Thanks. I was just about to post exactly these two items. I'm pissed at Fernanda for ruining the hawt streak. Wrong attitude, 93L/future Harvey will be the last of the record setter named non-canes, and Irene will be the first Atlantic Basin hurricane, the mojo has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Greg looks pretty interesting this afternoon... close to hurricane intensity imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Nice little core. Why can't we put that in the NW Caribbean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Fernanda is now blowing up. 60mph on ,latest advisory. It may make cat1 tomorrow before shear kicks in. WOuldn't it be something for the EPAC to be 7 for 7 while the Atlantic is 0 for 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Fernanda is now blowing up. 60mph on ,latest advisory. It may make cat1 tomorrow before shear kicks in. WOuldn't it be something for the EPAC to be 7 for 7 while the Atlantic is 0 for 7. It does look pretty good. I hope it gets to 65 kt-- that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Oh, Greg is now a hurricane. That happened fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 NHC is against hurricane status, but MW is good... it has a few hours to try to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 What if Fernanda becomes a hurricane after it moves into the Central Pacific area of responsibility? Does that count toward the seven for seven streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 What if Fernanda becomes a hurricane after it moves into the Central Pacific area of responsibility? Does that count toward the seven for seven streak? It's good enough in my book. GO FERNANDA GO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Fernanda's up to 55 kt. The Discussion notes a "blossoming" of convection near the center. They forecast the intensity to level off now-- and for weakening to start after 12 hr-- but let's keep our fingers crossed that it adds 10 kt more!! Greg is up to 70 kt, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 By the way... Fernanda is about to cross 140W and into the CPAC, so the folks in Honolulu will be taking over for the next advisory package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.