thewxmann Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 This will probably be a down to a minimal hurricane by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 This will probably be a down to a minimal hurricane by this time tomorrow. More like minimal tropical storm at this rate... talk about rapid weakening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Not quite dead yet, but not feeling well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 And Dora is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Another round of westerlies will reach the basin in a few days. I think the EPac will be favored moreso than the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Another round of westerlies will reach the basin in a few days. I think the EPac will be favored moreso than the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS is pulling the same pre-Dora stunt, with a cyclone hitting Nicaragua from the SW Carib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 so is the area of disturbed weather in the CC the next EPAC storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Basin jumper? NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.3N 80.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2011 12.3N 80.9W WEAK 00UTC 31.08.2011 12.6N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2011 12.8N 83.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2011 12.1N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2011 12.0N 89.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2011 13.3N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2011 12.0N 99.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2011 13.4N 99.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 NHC is running the models on EP96...the complex rotating at about 10.40N 97.20W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 EP96 -> EP05 -> TS Eugene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not that many people care, but I think Eugene has the potential to get significantly more intense than the current NHC forecast. Its been exhibiting some nice banding features and it seems that the convection is trying to wrap up around the center. It also has plenty of time over warm waters (72 hours or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Eugene is now a hurricane... the NHC forecast discussion continues to mention moderate shear, but I'm just not seeing it currently with a pretty well defined anticyclone situated right on top of the circulation. There is a distinct possibility Eugene could become a third major hurricane of this year's EPAC season, although that will probably require rapid intensification before it reaches cooler waters in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Beautiful arching...too bad it can't swap basins with 91L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 5/5 for NS's/hurricanes in the EPAC... pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 5/5 for NS's/hurricanes in the EPAC... pretty impressive. It might be only one storm ahead of the Atlantic (and soon to be tied) but all of the TC's this basin has produced have been pretty good quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 With Eugene hitting 65 kt, we have 5 for 5 on the EPAC side now-- i.e., all names storms have become 'canes. A solid season on this side. And on the NATL side, we have 0 for 4. Let's see what Emily does. EDIT: Sorry, didn't see thewxmann's and Phil882's post above. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 5/5 for NS's/hurricanes in the EPAC... pretty impressive. It might be only one storm ahead of the Atlantic (and soon to be tied) but all of the TC's this basin has produced have been pretty good quality. Yep-- the EPAC has been really solid this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Near the Gulf of Tehuantepec... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep972011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108021600 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011080212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972011 EP, 97, 2011080112, , BEST, 0, 151N, 937W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 97, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 148N, 942W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 97, 2011080200, , BEST, 0, 144N, 945W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 97, 2011080206, , BEST, 0, 140N, 949W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 97, 2011080212, , BEST, 0, 135N, 954W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 This latest Mandarin (97E) has a nice shape to it and should become a 'cane, too, as per SHIPS-- thus giving the EPAC a whopping 6 'canes for 6 named storms this year. Oh, Eugene is up to a noice 85 kt. What I would've given to have had that in the Gulf four days ago. The EPAC fish excellence continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Eugene is now at 90 kt, with a large, ragged eye. It should hit major status at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Eugene is now at 90 kt, with a large, ragged eye. It should hit major status at some point. It looks like a gunshot wound victim. How's your day of strength going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 It looks like a gunshot wound victim. lolz But still pure hawtness compared with the schlock in da NATL. How's your day of strength going? OK, thx. (Days o' Strength don't prohibit me from tending to my basic Tropical Dude responsibilities, like watering my threads. It's just the OT sh*t.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I find Muifa, which should pass close enough to put an eyewall on Naha and Kadena AFB (I hope we get obs, and U-Tube) a more interesting storm, but the West Pac doesn't seem to get the love it deserves. I need a Linda or a Mexico threat to get too excited about storms destined to wind down over cold water into low cloud swirls 2 days after having been majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Another major hurricane with Eugene reaching 100kt, 5/5/3 for the season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 NHC was forecasting Eugene to weaken today, but so far it has only become more impressive on Visible. Certainly a chance this makes to cat 4 by the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 one more band to shed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 one more band to shed The year of the quasi annulars in the EPAC... good upper level setups and lower SSTAs I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The year of the quasi annulars in the EPAC... good upper level setups and lower SSTAs I suppose. Normally it seems like we see annulars further out into the pacific, headed towards the CPAC. This year's quasis have been closer to MX it seems. I just checked Maue's page...they're up to almost 45 ACE now. No long trackers are really ruining some of the potential, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Normally it seems like we see annulars further out into the pacific, headed towards the CPAC. This year's quasis have been closer to MX it seems. I just checked Maue's page...they're up to almost 45 ACE now. No long trackers are really ruining some of the potential, though. This likely is due to the negative SSTA across a large part of the East Pacific around 20N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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