Srain Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Very impressive 'cane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Now THIS is a cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This thing is an absolute MONSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Awesome stadium effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 NHC Humor FTW ...A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERTWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERNPACIFIC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 NHC Humor FTW ...A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERTWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERNPACIFIC... LMAO! Very impressive storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Cloud tops could be colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I think the GFS deserves a round of applause for pretty much picking out this storm from day one... The model had been advertising a powerful tropical cyclone in the East Pacific since the 12th of July, which is a full 9 days ago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hurricane Dora looks terrifically terrifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 "A" word watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Dora has a good 12 hours left to max out before the hurricane would start encountering less favorable environmental conditions. This now has a realistic shot at attaining category 5 intensity. Can anyone name the last hurricane to reach that intensity in the Eastern Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Classic Bomb: PV expanding vertically and contracting radially. IMHO, good chance for Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ring of cold cloud tops around the eye, cane is starting to grow again. Here's its time to make a run at cat 5. I wish recon would come out today but unfortunately, it's tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Wow-- the EPAC is just on fire this season. It's only mid-July, and we've already had a handful of high-quality cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Animation in G-Cane's post- Dora still has banding features. It may look somewhat A word-ish on satellite, but it has banding features. Isn't there an SST below which canes don't nomrally go A-word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Saving a Dora pick in a different color scheme for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This storm is defiantly not annular, and I'd suspect we are already in the beginning stages of the next eyewall replacement cycle. The definition of an annual hurricane is pretty strict. An annular hurricane is identified if the hurricane persists for at least 3 h in an axisymmetric state defined by the following: 1) the hurricane has a normal-to-large-sized circular eye surrounded by a single band of deep convection containing the inner-core region and 2) the hurricane has little or no convective activity beyond this annulus of convection. The use of digital IR data also allows for the development of an objective technique of identifying storms with these characteristics, which will be addressed in section 4. Note that a hurricane is considered an annular hurricane only when these conditions are met; before and after the annular phase, the hurricane is considered an asymmetric storm. Fore more reading go here... its a pretty easy to follow paper for those not in the field. http://journals.amet...AH%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Microwave certainly shows plenty of outside rain-bands from the inner core of the storm, one if which is likely the beginning of a secondary wind maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This storm is defiantly not annular, and I'd suspect we are already in the beginning stages of the next eyewall replacement cycle. The definition of an annual hurricane is pretty strict. Fore more reading go here... its a pretty easy to follow paper for those not in the field. http://journals.amet...AH%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Microwave certainly shows plenty of outside rain-bands from the inner core of the storm, one if which is likely the beginning on the secondary wind maxima. Yeah, I noticed in the animation in 645 it has banding features. I thought (but could be wrong) there was an SST value above which canes don't usually become annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Wow-- the EPAC is just on fire this season. It's only mid-July, and we've already had a handful of high-quality cyclones. Perhaps a sign of things to come in the ATL. These EPAC systems spin up in less water and are stronger than Atlantic systems, pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Yeah, I noticed in the animation in 645 it has banding features. I thought (but could be wrong) there was an SST value above which canes don't usually become annular. It is thought that Annual storms are more common where SSTs are lower but favorable atmospheric conditions persist otherwise. However, warm SSTs certainly don't necessarily prevent annual hurricanes from developing. If you read the paper, you will find some other examples of Annular storms that were under pretty warm SSTs during their existence. This is from the paper I cited above... these are the observed characteristics that were found in common with the storms analyzed in the study. Note the percentage. This tells how the percentage that each particular threshold existed for all tropical cyclones in that basin. Note that the "cool" SSTs threshold is only common in 64% of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and only 51% of storms in the EPAC. The enhanced IR images for each storm are also posted for a visual representation. EDIT: I reread the study, and the percentages actually are representative of ALL tropical cyclones that occurred in each basin. Still, if you look at the storms observed, SSTs don't necessarily limit a storms "annular characteristics" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 So close you can almost touch it... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL OF DORA HASBECOME MORE INTENSE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR. VISIBLE PICTURES ARE RATHER SPECTACULAR WITH MESOVORTICES NOTED WITHIN THE DISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 127-140 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 135 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Wow, this is quite the sight for sore eyes. HRD is going to begin flights tomorrow into Dora, to better understand how storms spin-down over the cold waters of the east pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Understanding how fish in the EPAC spin down wouldnt be my top priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Understanding how fish in the EPAC spin down wouldnt be my top priority It is one of the priorities of the NHC since there's little direct observational data of storms spinning down in the east pac, so their forecasts of spin down are basically guesses. It's important for shipping interests to get the right forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Understanding how fish in the EPAC spin down wouldnt be my top priority I'd keep running PREDICT until we figure out how TCs actually form and intensify, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Understanding how fish in the EPAC spin down wouldnt be my top priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Cloud tops have warmed noticeably since this morning, and winds are down a hair-- to 130 kt. Looks like it might have peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 tropical storm watch for baja california. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Quite a change from 12 hours ago, the shear has really taken it's toll on Dora Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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