Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I think they bump it to 65 or 70 knots next advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Sweet... HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011 SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A RAGGED EYE BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED AND LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSR-E AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A BROKEN EYEWALL THAT APPEARS TO BE CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 65 KT. THEREFORE...DORA IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES WARM WATER AND REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS NHC DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS SHOWING ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72 HOURS...AS DORA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE. IN RESPONSE...THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO PRIMARILY DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 13.4N 99.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 The rightward shift of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS is interesting. Baja landfalls tend to be kind of blah-- usually Cat 2 or less-- but a more rightward trend could make this a lot more interesting. Not holding my breath, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Still no ring pattern on microwave. I only peaked it at Cat 2 today, with the caveat that we could still see RI in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Still no ring pattern on microwave. I only peaked it at Cat 2 today, with the caveat that we could still see RI in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12Z Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 13.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12Z Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 13.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Par for the course. Latest partial SSMI shows a nice banding eye. I don't know if it's par for the course, but Cat 3 looks like a better call looking at the continuous improving of it's structure and favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Latest partial SSMI shows a nice banding eye. I don't know if it's par for the course, but Cat 3 looks like a better call looking at the continuous improving of it's structure and favorable conditions. No, I just mean a forecast looking busto 3 hours after I issue it is par for the course. I mean, I did caveat it with "RI could happen" but it definitely wasn't explicit. I just get annoyed when I have to use old MWs and SHIPS to put my forecast out first thing in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 No, I just mean a forecast looking busto 3 hours after I issue it is par for the course. I mean, I did caveat it with "RI could happen" but it definitely wasn't explicit. I just get annoyed when I have to use old MWs and SHIPS to put my forecast out first thing in the morning. Oh, ok, gotcha....and feel your pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I think it's probably in the way of a RIC now... will probably peak at high end 3 or a 4. It's pretty symetrical and an eye is peaking on vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 The latest advisory brings the cyclone up to 110 kt by tomorrow night, followed by spectacular filling. Models are tending to build in a stronger ridge, thus reducing the threat to MX-- although there's an outside chance of some Baja impact down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 this is going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tightening up very rapidly now. Looking great on IR, but vis indicates she still needs to clear out that eye a bit more. I really like the symmetric looks she's taken now, which we can probably give some credit to the decrease in shear advertised by ships (from 11 kt at 12Z to a forecast 7 kts at 18Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 this is going to be good Ok, you beat me to it. I'll delete my IR, but I'm keeping my VIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Ok, you beat me to it. I'll delete my IR, but I'm keeping my VIS! The vis is really nice too...especially when looped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 re: the shear what hurricane wouldn't want such a soft upper air environment to work with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Open to the SW, but otherwise, a pretty healthy eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Bummer this is going to fish. What a waste of talent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Bummer this is going to fish. What a waste of talent! Doing its part for the global heat budget, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA NEAR 19.8N 110.0W AT 22/2000Z. Does this mean today or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 we need ACE like this to quiet down ryan maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Wiki says the Santa Lucia airbase in Edomex has Hercules aircraft, so I'd be rather sure they could refuel and do a turnaround on the Hurricane Hunter's Hercules. An overnight stop and refueling in Mexico would allow a mission to spend several more hours inside a Pacific hurricane. Maybe Jorge should draft a letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Dora's currently bombing out. Winds are 100 kt and increasing. The current Discussion says: DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW. IN FACT THE SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 UW-CIMSS objective Dvorak is the lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 It's a nice cyclone, but whatevz. It's fishing for sure-- the models continue to trend left. The EPAC is all about wasted talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I'd be surprised if this didn't make it to Category five status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 115kt cat 4 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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