HurricaneJosh Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Well the majority of the circulation is over land right now in Central America. Were is not for the land interaction, this system would likely be in the process of becoming a tropical cyclone. As the low level ridge strengthens across the Atlantic basin and Eastern US, it will force the disturbance out into the East Pacific where it should develop pretty quickly under low shear and warm SSTs. By 72 hours, the GFS is projecting a very favorable upper wind flow pattern at 200mb, forecasting expanding outflow in all quadrants of the system, which may already be a tropical storm by this point. This could become quite a formidable storm (hurricane and beyond) if this outflow regime verifies. The ECWMF eventually develops this system as well, but much later on (beyond 96 hours). I see no reason for its conservative forecast in the short term given that the circulation is already well established over Central America. It is just a matter of how quickly it can get into the East Pacific and start developing. Cool, thanks. What about the track? Land threat or total fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Cool, thanks. What about the track? Land threat or total fish? Still a little too early to tell for now. The GFS (and ECWMF) show a powerful ridge dominating across the Central US the next 2-3 days. This will likely keep the track westward for now with a slight northward component. However, you can see in 72 hours a strong trough will be moving into the Western US. This will weaken the ridge... the question is how much? The equation becomes more complicated because its unknown how strong the current disturbance will get, with a stronger and larger system more susceptible to a weaker ridge. I think if we are ultimately dealing with a stronger system, a track closer the the Mexican coastline is more likely than the Euro solution, which keeps the system out to sea. As always though, track forecasts are tricky to forecast before the genesis of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 20% at 5:00AM and sort of slow development per the GFS SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 3 days. The Euro OTOH is even slower in developing a potential Dora that makes a run near Socorro Island next weekend. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The GFS near miss on the mainland looks good, and the approach to the lower Baja would be even more interesting, except for the SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The GFS continues to be very adamant about immediate genesis as soon as the low over Central America moves into the East Pacific. This is not the same feature that the NHC has been keying on. The NHC lemon has some potential as well, but is much more loosely organized and hasn't totally become a separate entity from the monsoonal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The GFS system may not organize too quickly. The Panamanian and Tehuanepec systems competing before merging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Two lemons...how about some lemonaide...? TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. 2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 This invest is for the southern most area off Costa Rica... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_ep942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107161729 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942011 EP, 94, 2011071512, , BEST, 0, 98N, 825W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 94, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 831W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 94, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 98N, 836W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 94, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 99N, 841W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 94, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 846W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 94, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 101N, 851W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Scott just eMailed me about this-- with a sort of low-grade alert. The models suggest it'll skim the coast and may become a decent cyclone. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 July's hurricanes Only a storm from 1954 (Baja), Eugene '87 and Calvin '93 had hit MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Meh...SHIPS takes this to 58 kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Meh...SHIPS takes this to 58 kts... With the type of outflow regime predicted by the GFS, I'd be willing to bet that will end up being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Microwave and Satellite presentation is gradually improving... I'd say we are about 24 hours away from genesis given the current trends now that the storm has exited of the Central American coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 18Z SHIPS up to 61 kts now... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 SHIPS has been slowly increasing the max strength over the past few days, no reason to think it won't get to hurricane strength, the models are certainly agressive enough to suggests thats probable. I'd personally go with a peak strength of say 80kts. Steady does it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sweet. A big old Cherry... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I have been aggressive with this system for genesis and will continue to be. If there is no land interaction this should easily become a hurricane and likely a major at that. I'm digging the southern banding feature this morning. It will likely be upgraded 8am PDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_ep942011_ep042011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107181248 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Shocked GFDL and HWRF are on the poleward side of the envelope and are nearly outliers by Day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DESIGNATED AS THE FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY T1.5/25 KT...NHC ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDE5381 LOCATED ABOUT 70 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 31 KT AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO ERODE AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS BROAD HEAT-WAVE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF TRACKS AFTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP REPORT...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A FAIRLY TIGHT INNER CORE WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATER TROPICAL CYCLONE GRAVEYARD SITUATED WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 10.7N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.3N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 First forecast up to 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Look like with this and Bret in the Atlantic, climo will win once more, trackwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 TROPICAL STORM DORA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1100 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011 ...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DORA. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 92.3W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Beautiful curved pattern from Dora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Shocked GFDL and HWRF are on the poleward side of the envelope and are nearly outliers by Day 4. Hush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 ah, good ol' Stewart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Dora may well make a run at 'cane status today. RI is expected and should become a Major 'cane within 36 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks like a 'cane to me...southern semi circle is developing convection and an eye feature appears to be forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 00Z best suggests a 'cane. It certainly appears that an eye has formed...it should be a photogenic cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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