NittanyWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This is probably a bust for NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 It certainly does look impressive this morning...and for the doubters, you never know with the tropics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 ADT has is near 60 knots, and that's assuming the center is located east of the eye feature. However if the low and mid-level centers are aligned, this could already be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A 3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 NHC has it up to 60 knots with it expected to reach 70 knots in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 LOL... this will soon be Hurricane Calvin. Might be time to update the subtitle Josh Guess the shear went away... I love microwave blackouts. The most recent pass I had when I made my forecast this morning was from 3z. Now, that forecast is busto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Guess the shear went away... I love microwave blackouts. The most recent pass I had when I made my forecast this morning was from 3z. Now, that forecast is busto. One could make a case that microwave imagery is the most important tool for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. GOES is nice, but it's very difficult to infer inner core dynamics without something that can look through the cirrus canopy. IIRC the GOES-R series will introduce something to this effect. I'm not sure its a microwave imager or something else entirely, but cases like this show the inherent usefulness of such imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 One could make a case that microwave imagery is the most important tool for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. For developing/RI SR forecasts, there is no question that MW is the most important tool for a TC forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 HURRICANE CALVIN!! EP, 03, 2011070818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1080W, 65, 987, HU also, that's a -10 change in pressure. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 HURRICANE CALVIN!! EP, 03, 2011070818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1080W, 65, 987, HU also, that's a -10 change in pressure. wow. zomg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 zomg annular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 From TD to Hurricane in 24 hours... Nice unexpected RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Nice little microcane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Nice little microcane... looks a little "special" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Poor Calvin. Still a little convection West of the center, but its already sucking in stable strato-cu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 lmfao that doesn't look like a penis or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 ECMWF pops out another one while the Atlantic is dead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Dora the Explorer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Worthy of a lemon, IMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Following GFS, this starts life in the SW Caribbean before making it into the EPAC. GFS would suggest this could be an Atlantic TD or weak TS before the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Dora the Explorer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The next threat does look to be from the system currently straddling Central America with a lot of the pieces falling into place... this could be a potential significant system, and given its far east potential genesis point from the GFS, might be a potential landfall prospect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 The next threat does look to be from the system currently straddling Central America with a lot of the pieces falling into place... this could be a potential significant system, and given its far east potential genesis point from the GFS, might be a potential landfall prospect as well. Cool. It's pretty unsettled down there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If you believe Carl Schreck's stuff, the Kelvin wave is already past the easterly wave in the Caribbean. Maybe why the Euro is backing off its genesis forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If you believe Carl Schreck's stuff, the Kelvin wave is already past the easterly wave in the Caribbean. Maybe why the Euro is backing off its genesis forecast? I just recently read a paper just submitted about Atlantic TCG aided by convectively active Kelvin waves, and it suggested development is most likely during and shortly thereafter the progression of a Kelvin wave. In fact, the study found the highest development correlation 1-2 days after the passage of a Kelvin wave. Some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I just recently read a paper just submitted about Atlantic TCG aided by convectively active Kelvin waves, and it suggested development is most likely during and shortly thereafter the progression of a Kelvin wave. In fact, the study found the highest development correlation 1-2 days after the passage of a Kelvin wave. Some food for thought. Yep, that's when the westerly wind anomalies are the strongest. But according to those progs I posted, the Kelvin wave already passed the EPAC two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS looks interesting vicinity of Ixtapa... Weakens it quickly after land interaction starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 The Caribbean lemon has crossed into the the EPAC, and it looks to have a future. Phil882's been commenting on it. Phil, what's in store? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The Caribbean lemon has crossed into the the EPAC, and it looks to have a future. Phil882's been commenting on it. Phil, what's in store? Well the majority of the circulation is over land right now in Central America. Were is not for the land interaction, this system would likely be in the process of becoming a tropical cyclone. As the low level ridge strengthens across the Atlantic basin and Eastern US, it will force the disturbance out into the East Pacific where it should develop pretty quickly under low shear and warm SSTs. By 72 hours, the GFS is projecting a very favorable upper wind flow pattern at 200mb, forecasting expanding outflow in all quadrants of the system, which may already be a tropical storm by this point. This could become quite a formidable storm (hurricane and beyond) if this outflow regime verifies. The ECWMF eventually develops this system as well, but much later on (beyond 96 hours). I see no reason for its conservative forecast in the short term given that the circulation is already well established over Central America. It is just a matter of how quickly it can get into the East Pacific and start developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yep, that's when the westerly wind anomalies are the strongest. But according to those progs I posted, the Kelvin wave already passed the EPAC two days ago. The axis of the disturbance was centered over the Caribbean the past couple of days, and I'd suggest that the kelvin wave likely had an influence on the developing circulation. It looks pretty robust today, so the kelvin wave's aid in vorticity might have already taken place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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