phil882 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I've been arguing since last year that the global dynamical models are now pretty skillful at determining d(intensity)/dt. Obviously, they're not going to get the absolute wind speeds right, but I've been using them successfully for relative intensity changes for the last year. Yea I noticed that too! Dynamical guidance did a great job last year indicating that Gaston would not regenerate and remain weak despite the insistent statistical guidance trying to make it a hurricane. Of course lets just forget Fiona and all the the ECWMF's shenanigans with that system, although the GFS handled that storm remarkably well considering the expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looks like something's trying to get started in the extreme-SE corner of the basin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looks like something's trying to get started in the extreme-SE corner of the basin: The Euro and the GFS have something down there around the 4th. I'm not all that excited about it. The MJO should be east of that region by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Watching Steve's pianfully slow to load CIMS TPW loop on the Atlantic thread, I think the old GFS Tampico to Brownsville non-storm might be the next thing with a chance in the East Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 The Euro and the GFS have something down there around the 4th. I'm not all that excited about it. The MJO should be east of that region by then. Yo, what's up? Despite being up super-late last night, I got up at a reasonable hour today. Woo hoo! Re: the EPAC... I'm not holding my breath for anything, but there seemed to be a slight turning to that convection this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Yo, what's up? Despite being up super-late last night, I got up at a reasonable hour today. Woo hoo! Re: the EPAC... I'm not holding my breath for anything, but there seemed to be a slight turning to that convection this morning. Looking at the GFS, the little feature you noted is likely to get tangled up with the Caribbean feature, which won't help either feature since the bulk of the 850mb vorticity remains over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looking at the GFS, the little feature you noted is likely to get tangled up with the Caribbean feature, which won't help either feature since the bulk of the 850mb vorticity remains over land. OK, gotcha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 MR shot in the dark guess for next EPAC genesis: July 7-9, assuming the strong Kelvin wave forecasted holds up. The MJO will be favorable for things to brew down there for the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 It still looks to me like something is trying to spin up down there. Looks Lemonworthy to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 It still looks to me like something is trying to spin up down there. Looks Lemonworthy to me: Too much E/NE shear soon. The upper levels will favor the GoM over the GoT attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The long range models are again hinting a Gulf of Tehuantepec cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Canadian has a Beatriz Part Deux (Calvin) in 6 days. I don't blindly accept anything from the CMC, but it is already noisy where the CMC is showing the vorticity that it spins up is at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Arlene remnants ftw... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 1 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ARE LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT COLD WATER WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 The Euro, GFS and Canadian suggest a weak TC forming later in the week... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS BUT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 MR shot in the dark guess for next EPAC genesis: July 7-9, assuming the strong Kelvin wave forecasted holds up. The MJO will be favorable for things to brew down there for the next week or so. Meh, this is in the Euro and UKM, but not very strong or interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Meh, this is in the Euro and UKM, but not very strong or interesting. 12z GFS is on board with a weak POS system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 12z GFS is on board with a weak POS system too. OK, so nothing to really watch? Should I just ignore it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 OK, so nothing to really watch? Should I just ignore it? Yep. This is only going to be interesting for the true nerds that forecast 40 kt tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yep. This is only going to be interesting for the true nerds that forecast 40 kt tropical storms. But...I forecast for 40 kt tropical storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 But...I forecast for 40 kt tropical storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yep. This is only going to be interesting for the true nerds that forecast 40 kt tropical storms. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 30%. Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 30%. Woo! Oh, look. It's an invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Oh, look. It's an invest. Hey. 'Sup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Invest 93E. Models universally fish it. SHIPS makes it a moderate TS. Blah: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Invest 93E. Models universally fish it. SHIPS makes it a moderate TS. Blah: Told you yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Told you yesterday Smartypants. Look into that crystal ball and tell me when I'm gettin' some chase action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Smartypants. Look into that crystal ball and tell me when I'm gettin' some chase action. August 15-October 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 20%. 30%. Woo! 50%. Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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