HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Based on the latest IR and visible imagery, it looks to me like the cyclone has hooked more W and moved back out over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think we can safely consider this one to be an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think we can safely consider this one to be an overachiever. Yep. A landfalling babycane is pretty cool in the EPAC in June. My one bit of angst around this is the lack of data from Manzanillo. The city was definitely in the inner core, and it's just a shame that neither weather station was reporting. Hopefully data were collected-- just not communicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It is an awesome looking hurricane! Is it suppose to weaken now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think Adam nailed the 12z peak intensity... its obviously fallen apart since due to land interaction and cooler waters currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yep. A landfalling babycane is pretty cool in the EPAC in June. My one bit of angst around this is the lack of data from Manzanillo. The city was definitely in the inner core, and it's just a shame that neither weather station was reporting. Hopefully data were collected-- just not communicated. Did you check wunderground? I would but I am still internetless on my computer. Maybe someone's home station got some cool readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Did you check wunderground? I would but I am still internetless on my computer. Maybe someone's home station got some cool readings. Yep, I checked the two official reporting stations on Wunderground-- repeatedly-- and there were just no data coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think Adam nailed the 12z peak intensity... its obviously fallen apart since due to land interaction and cooler waters currently. It looks like it's really sped up and hooked left. I mean, that is way offshore, whereas the latest advisory (from just a couple of hours ago) still had it onshore. It definitely looks like it's unraveling a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yep, I checked the two official reporting stations on Wunderground-- repeatedly-- and there were just no data coming through. Check past days. They go to sleep, they're manual stations, business hours are from 7:45am to 8:50 pm. Nobody is gonna stay because of a wussy 'cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Check past days. They go to sleep, they're manual stations, business hours are from 7:45am to 8:50 pm. Nobody is gonna stay because of a wussy 'cane Ugh. What a bummer. You'd think someone there would be interested enough to man a wx station during a hurricane. Call it a "wussycane"-- but the city has not had a direct hit in 15 years. The data would have been valuable. P.S. Even the airport isn't collecting continuous data? I kind of assumed that it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Ugh. What a bummer. You'd think someone there would be interested enough to man a wx station during a hurricane. Call it a "wussycane"-- but the city has not had a direct hit in 15 years. The data would have been valuable. P.S. Even the airport isn't collecting continuous data? I kind of assumed that it would. Don't know, but I have a feeling they didn't. The wussy cane remark was my impersonation of the station operator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 The 8 am PDT package is out. The cyclone has turned to the NW and is weakening, as we suspected. Winds are down to 70 kt. The Discussion doesn't actually mention any landfall-- it says simply: THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ MOVED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED SOME WEAKENING. However, the 5 am position was onshore. I wonder how they'll count it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Assuming the cyclone has peaked-- a reasonable assumption-- the NHC did well with the intensity forecast, correctly calling for a max intensity of ~80 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Is the cyclone becoming seriously decoupled or something? Because the IR center looks to be W of the advisory position, which is less than ~20 mi offshore. Or is that a dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Is the cyclone becoming seriously decoupled or something? Because the IR center looks to be W of the advisory position, which is less than ~20 mi offshore. Or is that a dry slot? Yep... visible imagery shows the best low level turning east than the blob of Convection on IR... defiantly some decoupling going on right now between the surface and upper levels. In fact, it looks like the surface circulation might have been disrupted by the high Mexican terrain because its really hard to pick out a center right now. Maybe the GFS EnKF is scoring a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yep... visible imagery shows the best low level turning east than the blob of Convection on IR... defiantly some decoupling going on right now between the surface and upper levels. In fact, it looks like the surface circulation might have been disrupted by the high Mexican terrain because its really hard to pick out a center right now. Maybe the GFS EnKF is scoring a coup? OK, thanks. I was going to say, it's getting a bit messy looking. . Thanks for posting this. Two things I've gleaned from it: 1) the structure really deteriorated as it skimmed the coast and 2) it's not clear to me that it actually made landfall-- seems like the center of the eye might have stayed just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 IN the "better to burn out than fade away" Def Leppard mode of thinking, better to weaken from coastal interaction than to ingest stable air full of strato-cu and move over 22º water and just fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 ive always thought the frictional effect of land on a canes circulation would act to pull it inland, especially when the cane is moving slowly. I agree with you. Just look at Ivan 2004 go around Jamaica. As for beatriz it peaked near the coast, but then went to crap as it moved away. I think there is a effect near land that helps not only to tighten a cyclone, but to shield it from shear with very high sst's that only close to shore can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Beatriz is unraveling-- now a 60-kt TS-- and heading due W into the open EPAC. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Beatriz is unraveling-- now a 60-kt TS-- and heading due W into the open EPAC. Next! yep, next. Should be a depression within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Besides whatever frictional affects from land, and drier air drawn down from the mountains, Beatriz is near a pretty sharp SST gradient and isn't far from stable air strato-cu. No surprises, would have lasted a little longer, I suppose, if not for the land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 cant remeber the name, but there was one a few years ago that got pulled into the yucatan and got stuck there for a few days, lili? Isidore 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The GFS EnKF is basically showing Beatriz dissipating by tomorrow evening. That's pretty close to the Euro solution, too. Should be interesting to watch. GFS KnKF scores a major coup! From 80mph hurricane to dissipated in 12 hours. APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION OF BEATRIZ WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINOF MEXICO EARLY TODAY HAS DEALT A LETHAL BLOW TO THE TROPICALCYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND MIDDAY INDICATED THAT THERE WASNO LONGER A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THATTHE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD DECREASED EVEN FASTER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS ORSO. THEREFORE...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS IS THE LASTADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yeah. I'm excited to see what happens over the next 24 hours. I went for a peak at 12z tomorrow, then rapid weakening after with a remnant low by 12z Thursday. I can't believe that this forecast missed by 33 hours. I think I was the most aggressive one out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 GFS KnKF scores a major coup! The GFS EnKF was the most aggressive, but I think you'd have to give the GFS op and Euro some credit here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The GFS EnKF was the most aggressive, but I think you'd have to give the GFS op and Euro some credit here, too. Yea no doubt... in any event, it was a major victory for the dynamical models over statistical guidance. This certainly gives me hope that we might finally be starting to beat statistical intensity guidance on a consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yea no doubt... in any event, it was a major victory for the dynamical models over statistical guidance. This certainly gives me hope that we might finally be starting to beat statistical intensity guidance on a consistent basis. I've been arguing since last year that the global dynamical models are now pretty skillful at determining d(intensity)/dt. Obviously, they're not going to get the absolute wind speeds right, but I've been using them successfully for relative intensity changes for the last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Stop dancing on Beatriz's coffin. Show some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Stop dancing on Beatriz's coffin. Show some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.