HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Looking at the latest IR and visible imagery, I have to say, I'm not blown away by the system's presentation. It's kind of blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yeah, perhaps you're right. I'd like for once to hear about a SFMR estimate from an eyewall that is not rain-contaminated! Rain contamination for SMFR mostly affects weaker systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Looking at the latest IR and visible imagery, I have to say, I'm not blown away by the system's presentation. It's kind of blah. It's almost the time of the day where you have to switch to visible. Cyclones just before sunset are like girls/guys after a few beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Rain contamination for SMFR mostly affects weaker systems... Really? I feel like this is a chronic, across-the-board topic whenever SMFR data are discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 It's almost the time of the day where you have to switch to visible. Cyclones just before sunset are like girls/guys after a few beers. Yeah, but as I noted above, the visible doesn't look so amazing, either. I'm a bit disappointed, frankly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 It's almost the time of the day where you have to switch to visible. Cyclones just before sunset are like girls/guys after a few beers. Yep, they always look better when the sun setting on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 HURRICANE BEATRIZ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 HURRICANE BEATRIZ!!! Starting to really look good. If it can stay off shore a eye may develop within the next 24 hours. I'm thinking 80-85 knots if that occurs, but if it moves closer to shore then no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Starting to really look good. If it can stay off shore a eye may develop within the next 24 hours. I'm thinking 80-85 knots if that occurs, but if it moves closer to shore then no. It basically looks like its about to make landfall: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-rb.html Looking at that loop you can see a "jump" to the NW- and it looks like it will make landfall overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It basically looks like its about to make landfall: http://www.ssd.noaa....6/flash-rb.html Looking at that loop you can see a "jump" to the NW- and it looks like it will make landfall overnight. Turning northwestward and scraping the coastline. Also the eye formed faster then I thought, so I'd estimate the winds now near 80 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The eye of Hurricane Beatriz is just scraping the coastline, almost avoiding landfall at any cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Not a bad little cyclone-- 983 mb/70 kt as of 11 pm PDT and very close to the coast. If the NNW motion continues for another few hours, the center should cross the coast very near Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Here are the last four positions mapped. The center seems to be curving a bit more W as it nears the coast. Manzanillo should most certainly get the right side of the core, even if it doesn't get in the eye. Current conditions at Manzanillo: light rain and very light winds, pressure 1000 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 OK, I'm having slight frustration getting obs and radar imagery. The Manzanillo airport isn't reporting, and the other station in the city hasn't reported in a couple of hours-- and the Cuyutlan radar site (nearest the hurricane) is down. Grrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 The 2 am PDT advisory has the cyclone very close to the coast, with the center only 15 mi S of Manzanillo. Motion is NNW and the center should pass over or near the city in the next few hours. It has continued to strengthen, now up to 977 mb/80 kt, with a 20-25-nmi-wide eye. The Discussions says: THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT... AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. .... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. Manzanillo must be getting pretty raked right now, but unfortunately the two stations in the city are not reporting. Boo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Despite the Discussion's glowing description of the cyclone's improving structure, I have to say, the IR presentation is not amazing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hi guys, I made this video within the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 MIMIC suggests a very close brush with the Coast. IR imagery also suggests the strengthening has probably stopped at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Very, very close now. I'm sure Manzanillo is in the N eyewall and probably getting winds to hurricane force along the waterfront: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hi guys, I made this video within the last couple hours. Cool update, dude-- really informative and detailed. Nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Maybe all the tourists on vacation in the beach front hotels of Manzanillo will capture cell phone and vid camera eye wall shots, especially after sunrise, and upload them to UTube when they get home. Poleward bias rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 As per the 5 am PDT advisory, Beatriz has made landfall with an estimated intensity of 977 mb/80 kt-- a strong Cat 1. The latest position (19.4N 105.0W) is just inland, ~50 mi WNW of Manzanillo, which most certainly experienced the hurricane's core. The cyclone has essentially been moving parallel to the contour of the coastline, scraping a large area with hurricane winds. Judging from the plots, the landfall point was very close to the Colima/Jalisco state line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 nice looking cane. i wonder if interaction with land pulled it inland so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Beatriz's track is remarkably similar to the last hurricane to hit this region-- Hernan 1996 (also a Cat 1). In fact, this sort of track-- moving parallel to (and scraping) the coast at a weird angle-- is very typical of landfalling EPAC cyclones: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Beatriz's track is remarkably similar to the last hurricane to hit this region-- Hernan 1996 (also a Cat 1). And, in fact, this sort of track-- moving parallel to (and scarping the coast) at a weird angle-- is very typical of landfalling EPAC cyclones: quite similar. it looks like it was going to parallel the coast then took a quick jump north over land. it that area mountainous just inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 quite similar. it looks like it was going to parallel the coast then took a quick jump north over land. it that area mountainous just inland? I think a bit, but not majorly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 ive always thought the frictional effect of land on a canes circulation would act to pull it inland, especially when the cane is moving slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 ive always thought the frictional effect of land on a canes circulation would act to pull it inland, especially when the cane is moving slowly. I've seen people mention that theory on occasion, especially with regard to Hispaniola (in the NATL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I've seen people mention that theory on occasion, especially with regard to Hispaniola (in the NATL). cant remeber the name, but there was one a few years ago that got pulled into the yucatan and got stuck there for a few days, lili? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 In another hour or so we'll have morning visibles, which will be helpful for determining exactly where the center is. It's hard to tell from the IR imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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