am19psu Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Both. GFDL and HWRF are biasing TVCN too far north (which is essentially what NHC used for their track). While global models are poor for absolute intensity estimates, they do a good job with trends and none of the globals are showing much deepening. Well, this was wrong. I'm still not as bullish as Stewart is on intensity, but everything has trended north the last two sets of model runs. I guess that's why HWRF is the best thing to ever happen to hurricane modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well, this was wrong. I'm still not as bullish as Stewart is on intensity, but everything has trended north the last two sets of model runs. I guess that's why HWRF is the best thing to ever happen to hurricane modeling. If this cyclone does keep more N and come ashore, it will be a good lesson for us not to always automatically disregard the more poleward GFDL/HWRF solutions as mere "bias". (I know I always do.) So you think 80 kt is too bullish-- or the talk of RI in the Discussion? Given the trend, I'd think 80 kt seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 If this cyclone does keep more N and come ashore, it will be a good lesson for us not to always automatically disregard the more poleward GFDL/HWRF solutions as mere "bias". (I know I always do.) So you think 80 kt is too bullish-- or the talk of RI in the Discussion? Given the trend, I'd think 80 kt seems reasonable. I don't think so, at least not from a probabilistic perspective. If they are right 20% of the time and a GFS/ECM blend is right 80% of the time, it's still better to always forecast the GFS/ECM blend (unless you can predict when the GFDL/HWRF will be right). I went to 70 kts today and I'm worried that might be too strong. The equatorward outflow channel is going to have to do some work, because divergence aloft is stunted to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I don't think so, at least not from a probabilistic perspective. If they are right 20% of the time and a GFS/ECM blend is right 80% of the time, it's still better to always forecast the GFS/ECM blend (unless you can predict when the GFDL/HWRF will be right). OK, I gotcha, makes sense... But let's just say it'll make me a little more wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Recon flight scheduled for later today. Hurricane conditions expected to reach the coast by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The GFS EnKF is basically showing Beatriz dissipating by tomorrow evening. That's pretty close to the Euro solution, too. Should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The GFS EnKF is basically showing Beatriz dissipating by tomorrow evening. That's pretty close to the Euro solution, too. Should be interesting to watch. Interesting, is this mainly due to topography or other adverse atms related effects? I'm on my phone but the latest microwave shows a developing inner core so I think it's likely we will have a hurricane before the day is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Interesting, is this mainly due to topography or other adverse atms related effects? I'm on my phone but the latest microwave shows a developing inner core so I think it's likely we will have a hurricane before the day is out. The high to the north sinks southward due to the s/w moving across the Southern Plains. It looks like that strongly inhibits poleward outflow and probably increases shear as well. I tried to find dry air this morning, but the environment looks to be pretty moist. The MW does look good this morning, with a partial eyewall in the SW quadrant. I agree we'll probably have a hurricane within 24 hours, but it looks like spin down could be fairly quick as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if this will be the only brush the MX coast gets this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if this will be the only brush the MX coast gets this season? Who knows? The season is starting off very nicely with two interesting systems before July, even-- but last year started great, too, and just died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Models are suggesting another cyclone in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 The 8 am PDT package is out. Intensity is up to 995 mb/55 kt, and the cyclone should become a hurricane tonight. The track forecast sounds complicated. The motion is now even more N-- 320. However, the Discussions says: DESPITE THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. Sounds like they're just not sure how close it's going to get. The new forecast has the center moving parallel to the coast tonight and tomorrow, within ~25 mi of it. Manzanillo should see some heavy conditions tomorrow afternoon as the center passes nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Who knows? The season is starting off very nicely with two interesting systems before July, even-- but last year started great, too, and just <b>died</b>. You didn't take the bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 You didn't take the bait Oh, but I smelled it alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 FYI: RECON currently 280 miles NE of Tampico enroute to Beatriz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 By the way, this SW "elbow" of the MX coast around Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta-- comprising the states of Colima and Jalisco-- hasn't had a lot of hurricane action over the last couple of decades. The last hurricane to directly hit this region was Hernan 1996, a Cat 1 which came ashore near the Jalisco/Colima border with an intensity of 987 mb/65 kt. The early 1990s saw a small burst of activity for this region, with two Cat 2s coming ashore in the general vicinity of Manzanillo: Winifred 1992 (975 mb/85 kt) in Colima and Calvin 1993 (973 mb/85 kt) in Jalisco. You have to go back to ancient history for the last major in this region: the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959, a presumed Cat 5 that crossed the Jalisco coast a little WNW of Manzanillo with estimated winds of 140 kt. (The Cat-5 rating appears to be based on a single, vague piece of data of questionable origins, and I'm frankly skeptical. Unfortunately, no official reanalysis of this basin is currently being conducted.) Kenna 2002-- a classic, late-October major-- was a close call, passing just N of Puerto Vallarta and making landfall in Nayarit as a Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt). P.S. Jorge and I just had a total nerd-out/Cat-5 debate Re: the 1959 'cane via Skype chat. He and I seriously have the nerdiest arguments-- omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Is jorge's Mexican nationalism clouding his judgment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Is jorge's Mexican nationalism clouding his judgment? I took a cheap shot and accused him of that. But I don't think so. MX has so many more Cat-5 landfalls than we do, it's kind of not fair. Just since 1950, they have Janet 1955 (), Great Mexico Hurricane 1959 (if we count it), Anita 1977, Gilbert 1988, and Dean 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Why don't the WC-130Js land somewhere in Mexico, top off the tanks, and get a full mission in. Or pre-deploy the day before to a Mexican air base, get 8 hours sleep, and fly a full mission. The Fuerza Aerea Mexicana operates Hercules from the Santa Lucia airbase in the state of Hidalgo per the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice Windsat catch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Is jorge's Mexican nationalism clouding his judgment? Basically we agreed that we need more data. We were just basically arguing over this little piece of data: Change to make the Great Hurricane of 1959 become a Cat 5 over water instead of over land. Kept intensity inland the same because of 135+ kt wind report in Manzanillo. May have been stronger than 140 kt offshore. I took a cheap shot and accused him of that. But I don't think so. MX has so many more Cat-5 landfalls than we do, it's kind of not fair. Just since 1950, they have Janet 1955 (), Great Mexico Hurricane 1959 (if we count it), Anita 1977, Gilbert 1988, and Dean 2007. It hurts that the only state of the US which has presence in the tropics is Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Another RECON mission is tasked for tomorrow as well... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1015 AM EDT MON 20 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-020 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 21/1800Z B. AFXXX 0202E BEATRIZ C. 21/1315Z D. 18.7N 104.7W E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Basically we agreed that we need more data. We were just basically arguing over this little piece of data: It hurts that the only state of the US which has presence in the tropics is Hawaii. I wait each year for another Iniki... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice Windsat catch... Looks nice but that image should also cool down any talk of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yeah, that piece of data is a sticking point between us. Jorge argues in favor of accepting it in deference to historical continuity, whereas I reject it because there's so little info around it and Manzanillo was a good 30-40 mi from the presumed landfall point (Bahia Tenacatita), thus making such a reading a bit hard to swallow. Like I said, it was a total nerdfight. We're cool-- we got through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Back to Beatriz, it's looking good in those latest images. The IR is improving as well, after some apparent warming a couple of hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Slightly OT, knowing Josh and islands, but considering ease of flying to Hawaii, 2 decent sized islands with road networks, Oahu one island over from Kaui, would Josh chase the next Iniki threatening the Aloha State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Slightly OT, knowing Josh and islands, but considering ease of flying to Hawaii, 2 decent sized islands with road networks, Oahu one island over from Kaui, would Josh chase the next Iniki threatening the Aloha State? I'll answer in my chase thread. (I don't want to bore folks here who don't care about my chasing. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 RECON descending for what likely will be a two pass mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 New advisory shows that the motion continues to trend more N-- now 325. The Hurricane Hunters are almost there-- so we'll get a good read on the intensity soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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