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Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback


Mr Torchey

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Sorry late to the party here but:

18z NAM:

BOS//527353 03617 130909 36049994

06002939360 03211 100713 38019898

12034999465 01509 070616 40000097

18084989970 20108 980427 43010100

24100986347 00406 880225 42009901

30015977838 01113 893219 35009693

Maybe if you ask you receive: That is 2.33” total in a virtual isothermal sounding at 0C for BOS…. If that verifies even half you got a 12" of blue snow for BED-ORH and possibly as far W as FIT and everyone is underdone!

We'll see.

Son of 97, 50 miles NW... crazy omega up to the coastal plain... and I don't think we're done shifting...

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Given those 950 and 850 progs, they'll definitely be a strong warmfront and isentropic lift with that low. The 700 low isn't classic, but hopefully we can have one massive WCB lift in, perhaps aided by the low level stuff. If deep lift does occur, hopefully it's enough to evaporationally cool that little warm layer near 850mb to 0C. Melting also aids in cooling because the physical process of ice melt causes the atmosphere to cool slightly. We need a pretty thin layer of warmth, but it does help and it's one of the reasons we have isothermal layers near 0C.

We'll need to watch that area of rasn right now, hopefully it shows signs of backing west. If that's the case, ORH should do well.

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FYI, Westborough Mass - just about ready to leave the office for the day and I have snow flurries out of window at 41F

Again, that's an homage to how meaningless this apparent warmth is. Just off the deck it is cold, and ANY dynamics getting involved here is going to drill the WB 0 right down.

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Matt Noyes also going bullish for coast... again, I think 12z euro laid an egg... ballistic omega on 18Z nam in eastern SNE, this will be a very interesting finale to big big winter...

EDIT: bullish just for coast, i think this is an underforecast for Worcester up to Northeast Mass

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That looks pretty ho-hum for the bulk of the bay state. Of course, the date of April 1 must be factored in.....

38.5/28

agree, i was just referring to coastal plain... i actually think this is a significant underforecast for ORH & hills up into northeast Mass

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Sorry late to the party here but:

18z NAM:

Maybe if you ask you receive: That is 2.33” total in a virtual isothermal sounding at 0C for BOS…. If that verifies even half you got a 12" of blue snow for BED-ORH and possibly as far W as FIT and everyone is underdone!

We'll see.

BOS is so damn close. But virtual isothermal sounding is probably a bit optimistic. Warm surface and marginally warm 850-800mb. But if the intensity really goes crazy I bet the column goes temporarily isothermal. Elevation and western longitude really help on the soundings. ORH looks great. I'd go conservative at Logan.

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