Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final was 6.8" here barring getting a few tenths from this last burst. Princeton got 8.4"...was hoping we'd get a little more overall, but not complaining about warning criteria snowfall in April. Pretty nice event. Tough break for Mt. Pocono though.

What happened...the CCB just didn't crank soon enough...

[ORH_wxman]

What happened...the CCB just didn't crank soon enough...

Yeah, just didn't quite wrap up enough in time for the huge omega thump...which was more crucial for your area obviously being lower down.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, just didn't quite wrap up enough in time for the huge omega thump...which was more crucial for your area obviously being lower down.

Exactly as I figured...I just about the same temp during 4\97, yet it piled on like a gang of dudes onto rev's back.

[Mr Torchey]

Well its over, bunch of slush puppies last night, and today was on and off rain. December and Jan were fantastic, however I have had 5.7 inches of snow since Feb 1st. The amount of snow in a 6 week span combined with snowcover for 50 days here at the shore, and impressive depths cannot be erased!

Winter 10-11 gets a A+, there is a very good chance I will never see that amount of snow again down here, therfore for me its been a historic winter.

Looks like we have some beautiful weather down here for the couple days and a real taste of spring on Tuesday, things will be greening up quickly. ITs time for baseball bikinis and beers.........good luck to all of clamtown nation, expectations are high!

Bring on some Canes baby, my second fave weather fetish.

CIAO WINTER!!! :sun:

[weathafella]

God i hate the summer.

Come on man....ladies scantifly clad walking around Boston isn't all bad.

[MaineJayhawk]

Final was 6.8" here barring getting a few tenths from this last burst. Princeton got 8.4"...was hoping we'd get a little more overall, but not complaining about warning criteria snowfall in April. Pretty nice event. Tough break for Mt. Pocono though.

I'm holding a candlelight vigil for the unfortunate peeps of NE PA tonight. I hate it for them.

[MainePhotog]

8.8" of snow here today. Brought my season total to over 100". Intensity of snowfall was awesome, with visibility at times around 1/16m. Tainted for a while with sleet/snow mix, which kept total down.

Here is a HD video from this morning when we were crossing the Carlton Bridge between Woolwich and Bath. Click the picture to view the video on my smugmug site. Broadband recommended.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm holding a candlelight vigil for the unfortunate peeps of NE PA tonight. I hate it for them.

Rough break...we should have hoped for a huge BGM/Catskills hit so that we could have flipped to rain. Oh well. Nice little event here...and even better up there.

[weathafella]

I don't think the models did well with the storm at all; this was one of the biggest busts of the season if you look at what happened synoptically, not just snowfall totals in SNE. 72 hours out, the GFS and ECM agreed at 12z that the low would develop rapidly over the Mid-Atlantic with the mid-levels closing off near NJ/NYC; in reality, 700mb didn't close off completely until the storm was approaching Maine.

That's just an unreal error for a 3-day forecast, although I do find that guidance often rushes the development of the H85 and H7 levels, leaving many people stuck with just flurries when they expected heavier QPF, like March 2001. Models also didn't see how much the second shortwave was going to separate from the third; the original idea was that they would both amplify the trough and allow the low to bomb into the 970s outside of Cape Cod. In reality, the third piece of energy split over the Plains and tracked as a separate weak clipper over IL/WI/IN, depriving the main storm of much of its energy. We needed that third piece of energy to dive into the trough, but it didn't until the surface low had already passed the area.

Second, QPF was much too high....Boston only has reported .66" liquid, Worcester only .56" liquid; how many times did we see the models printing out 1-2" QPF for these areas? Despite the radar looking impressive, you must have noticed all the obs were -SN, we didn't see any reports of +SN despite the fact people were discussing this as a blizzard. Down here, the QPF error was even worse; 48 hours out, the Euro had my area receiving 1.5" QPF with NNJ receiving 1.8" QPF. White Plains airport, about 15 minutes from my house, has only recorded .18" liquid, Central Park .29" QPF. That's just showers, not a Nor'easter. I just find it amazing that in 2011, we have models forecasting stations to get 10X the amount of liquid they actually receive at 48 hours. This is a two day forecast, that's just frightening...just goes to show that these so-called "improvements" and "upgrades" have actually made forecasting more difficult since we're so apt to rely on models instead of common sense these days. They made the same mistake in 3/24, showing nearly 1" QPF here when we got .3", just weird.

2" is probably less than your area averages for April, and didn't you get shut-out for March? I'm not trying to take away from your enjoyment of the snow, and I'm not jealous at all since we had a great season here, believe me....but I just don't find a storm that's hyped up as a monster and then leaves everyone with 25% of their average snowfall for March/April to be that impressive. I also was under the impression we were going to see widespread reports of heavy snow, thundersnow, dangerous winds....it ended up being mostly flurries, showers, and a few hours of moderate snow. I think we all got sucked in by the model's surface maps and didn't study the H7 and H85 trend towards closing the lows off too late again. It seemed like there were too many bands on radar and none of them ever consolidated into a real CCB. Then the BL got warm as the sun rose and ended the snow in many places.

But do you think we're really done? GFS brings down some -10C 850s all the way to Pittsburgh after the big cutter on Tuesday; if we can get that low to bomb over Quebec and into the 50/50 position, pumping up heights over Greenland, then maybe the next shortwave can produce a good snowstorm especially for NNE. I'm fairly positive we're done down here, although NYC metro did have a major snowfall on 4/7/2003 with 8" on LI South Shore, and JFK also accumulated 1.8", along with my town, on 4/19/1983. Flakes also flew here on 5/10/1977. So we just have to keep watching and hope the next storm is actually bomb, especially if we are getting the exaggerated sudden stratospheric warming/final warming which may allow the NAO to turn more negative alongside the bombing 50/50 low.

March had 1.3 I think. Paltry for sure. Total for the season 81 on the nose...probably the final.

[mattlacroix4]

Just got home ... 8.7"

Clearly some settling and melting, but it is what it is. The stuff weighs a metric ton per shovelful.

I bet you had 9-10 this afternoon, still not bad though

[MaineJayhawk]

I bet you had 9-10 this afternoon, still not bad though

I'm guessing it would've been 11.1"

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't think the models did well with the storm at all; this was one of the biggest busts of the season if you look at what happened synoptically, not just snowfall totals in SNE. 72 hours out, the GFS and ECM agreed at 12z that the low would develop rapidly over the Mid-Atlantic with the mid-levels closing off near NJ/NYC; in reality, 700mb didn't close off completely until the storm was approaching Maine.

That's just an unreal error for a 3-day forecast, although I do find that guidance often rushes the development of the H85 and H7 levels, leaving many people stuck with just flurries when they expected heavier QPF, like March 2001. Models also didn't see how much the second shortwave was going to separate from the third; the original idea was that they would both amplify the trough and allow the low to bomb into the 970s outside of Cape Cod. In reality, the third piece of energy split over the Plains and tracked as a separate weak clipper over IL/WI/IN, depriving the main storm of much of its energy. We needed that third piece of energy to dive into the trough, but it didn't until the surface low had already passed the area.

Second, QPF was much too high....Boston only has reported .66" liquid, Worcester only .56" liquid; how many times did we see the models printing out 1-2" QPF for these areas? Despite the radar looking impressive, you must have noticed all the obs were -SN, we didn't see any reports of +SN despite the fact people were discussing this as a blizzard. Down here, the QPF error was even worse; 48 hours out, the Euro had my area receiving 1.5" QPF with NNJ receiving 1.8" QPF. White Plains airport, about 15 minutes from my house, has only recorded .18" liquid, Central Park .29" QPF. That's just showers, not a Nor'easter. I just find it amazing that in 2011, we have models forecasting stations to get 10X the amount of liquid they actually receive at 48 hours. This is a two day forecast, that's just frightening...just goes to show that these so-called "improvements" and "upgrades" have actually made forecasting more difficult since we're so apt to rely on models instead of common sense these days. They made the same mistake in 3/24, showing nearly 1" QPF here when we got .3", just weird.

2" is probably less than your area averages for April, and didn't you get shut-out for March? I'm not trying to take away from your enjoyment of the snow, and I'm not jealous at all since we had a great season here, believe me....but I just don't find a storm that's hyped up as a monster and then leaves everyone with 25% of their average snowfall for March/April to be that impressive. I also was under the impression we were going to see widespread reports of heavy snow, thundersnow, dangerous winds....it ended up being mostly flurries, showers, and a few hours of moderate snow. I think we all got sucked in by the model's surface maps and didn't study the H7 and H85 trend towards closing the lows off too late again. It seemed like there were too many bands on radar and none of them ever consolidated into a real CCB. Then the BL got warm as the sun rose and ended the snow in many places.

But do you think we're really done? GFS brings down some -10C 850s all the way to Pittsburgh after the big cutter on Tuesday; if we can get that low to bomb over Quebec and into the 50/50 position, pumping up heights over Greenland, then maybe the next shortwave can produce a good snowstorm especially for NNE. I'm fairly positive we're done down here, although NYC metro did have a major snowfall on 4/7/2003 with 8" on LI South Shore, and JFK also accumulated 1.8", along with my town, on 4/19/1983. Flakes also flew here on 5/10/1977. So we just have to keep watching and hope the next storm is actually bomb, especially if we are getting the exaggerated sudden stratospheric warming/final warming which may allow the NAO to turn more negative alongside the bombing 50/50 low.

As this came into 72-84 the very first nam runs showed significant issues with s/w interference. For a day or so the euro and goofus failed to see it and we had those huge solutions. Kind of predictable actually.

Likewise the gfs definitely had some feedback issues with the convection down in sc. Wasn't obvious or trackable until after the 12z run.

I'm kind or with Scott and Ryan that the models did ok. People are just too accustomed to accepting that the euro is usually right. It's had some bad days this year.

For me, I beat tolland on the first event of the year and the last. To me...that's an unusual occurrence in any year. No complaints.

For Boston Pvd and Hartford there is a tarnish on what was a great season. 2/5 on was a whimper....again

[MaineJayhawk]

Rough break...we should have hoped for a huge BGM/Catskills hit so that we could have flipped to rain. Oh well. Nice little event here...and even better up there.

Yes, it was a pretty good event. Would've been a better deal if it happened on the weekend so I could do naked snow angels but alas.

I'm at peace with this winter now. Giving it a B.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I find it ironic that Kev built up his huge cushion during the middle of the winter, then struggled to hold on as the season waned....normally the opposite would be the case, but that is owed to la Nina asserting itself and negating is orographic advg.

He got lucky back in Jan.....just upside down...he owned the KUs, and I owned the late season events.

Odd.

[nzucker]

Winter 10-11 gets a A+, there is a very good chance I will never see that amount of snow again down here, therfore for me its been a historic winter.

How can you call this winter an A+?...You had absolutely nothing in February and March, and our snowiest period by climo is from early February to mid March. I got 8" on 2/21 and I still wouldn't give the winter an A+, I think an A- is about the highest I could go considering the last two months of the season were nothing. Dee-Jan was an epic combo, and that's the best time for us to have snow since we can establish a good snowpack with the low sun angle, I really appreciated having over a foot on the ground for almost all January and the constant cold that allowed local ponds/lakes to freeze over with even the Hudson River having some ice. It was pretty obscene how we got crushed with three massive Nor'easters in a month, great times. However, this winter, with 69.5" measured here, is still behind the true greats like 60-61 (90"), 95-96 (82"), 57-58 (80"), and 66-67 (70"). I also need a bit more consistency to call a winter an A+; 95-96 had snow in every month from November through April, whereas 10-11 got too late of a storm with the first significant event being December 26th and then nothing after early February for most of us. No matter how epic it was, a 6-week winter can't be an A+. If this Nor'easter had been a success with 4""+, I would have raised the grade to an A...We also didn't have a real arctic outbreak this winter...sure, it was consistently cold from Thanksgiving through early February, and sure the cold was fairly brutal around 1/24, but it wasn't anything extreme. 850s never got below -20C compared to -25C in January 2009 and close to -30C in January 1994.

Rough break...we should have hoped for a huge BGM/Catskills hit so that we could have flipped to rain. Oh well. Nice little event here...and even better up there.

Do you think you would have flipped to rain though if the Catskills had got crushed? The Catskills got good snow in 4/97 and 5/77, yet your area also did well. I feel like the storm would have been colder naturally if the mid-levels had tightened up and closed off near NYC/SW CT...that would have established more dynamic banding for everyone. One of the problems was that we weren't getting 1/8SM +SN, so a lot of the snow was just melting from the warm ground and not really accumulating on roads. I feel that this was a major problem especially in urban areas like Boston, where it just didn't snow heavily enough to really pile up in April.

March had 1.3 I think. Paltry for sure. Total for the season 81 on the nose...probably the final.

I had 3.75" here in March, still terrible. This winter lowered its grade from A+ to A-/B+ by being an utter fail later on. I was having the season of my life until 2/21, and I would still say it was the best winter I've experienced, except for perhaps 95-96. But we got the -NAO pattern in March a bit too late for my area, and the individual storms on 3/24 and 4/1 both fell apart in a sense. Neither of them ever coalesced like the models showed.

[Mr Torchey]

How can you call this winter an A+?...You had absolutely nothing in February and March, and our snowiest period by climo is from early February to mid March. I got 8" on 2/21 and I still wouldn't give the winter an A+, I think an A- is about the highest I could go considering the last two months of the season were nothing. Dee-Jan was an epic combo, and that's the best time for us to have snow since we can establish a good snowpack with the low sun angle, I really appreciated having over a foot on the ground for almost all January and the constant cold that allowed local ponds/lakes to freeze over with even the Hudson River having some ice. It was pretty obscene how we got crushed with three massive Nor'easters in a month, great times. However, this winter, with 69.5" measured here, is still behind the true greats like 60-61 (90"), 95-96 (82"), 57-58 (80"), and 66-67 (70"). I also need a bit more consistency to call a winter an A+; 95-96 had snow in every month from November through April, whereas 10-11 got too late of a storm with the first significant event being December 26th and then nothing after early February for most of us. No matter how epic it was, a 6-week winter can't be an A+. If this Nor'easter had been a success with 4""+, I would have raised the grade to an A...We also didn't have a real arctic outbreak this winter...sure, it was consistently cold from Thanksgiving through early February, and sure the cold was fairly brutal around 1/24, but it wasn't anything extreme. 850s never got below -20C compared to -25C in January 2009 and close to -30C in January 1994.

Do you think you would have flipped to rain though if the Catskills had got crushed? The Catskills got good snow in 4/97 and 5/77, yet your area also did well. I feel like the storm would have been colder naturally if the mid-levels had tightened up and closed off near NYC/SW CT...that would have established more dynamic banding for everyone. One of the problems was that we weren't getting 1/8SM +SN, so a lot of the snow was just melting from the warm ground and not really accumulating on roads. I feel that this was a major problem especially in urban areas like Boston, where it just didn't snow heavily enough to really pile up in April.

I had 3.75" here in March, still terrible. This winter lowered its grade from A+ to A-/B+ by being an utter fail later on. I was having the season of my life until 2/21, and I would still say it was the best winter I've experienced, except for perhaps 95-96. But we got the -NAO pattern in March a bit too late for my area, and the individual storms on 3/24 and 4/1 both fell apart in a sense. Neither of them ever coalesced like the models showed.

Man you are pissy lately.

I had 72 inches of snow on the beach tubes, GET REAL, you dont remember what it can be like around here because of the last decade of snow.

I had snow on the ground for over 50 days straight, depths were off the charts.......................................time for you to pull a tube.

[ORH_wxman]

How can you call this winter an A+?...You had absolutely nothing in February and March, and our snowiest period by climo is from early February to mid March. I got 8" on 2/21 and I still wouldn't give the winter an A+, I think an A- is about the highest I could go considering the last two months of the season were nothing. Dee-Jan was an epic combo, and that's the best time for us to have snow since we can establish a good snowpack with the low sun angle, I really appreciated having over a foot on the ground for almost all January and the constant cold that allowed local ponds/lakes to freeze over with even the Hudson River having some ice. It was pretty obscene how we got crushed with three massive Nor'easters in a month, great times. However, this winter, with 69.5" measured here, is still behind the true greats like 60-61 (90"), 95-96 (82"), 57-58 (80"), and 66-67 (70"). I also need a bit more consistency to call a winter an A+; 95-96 had snow in every month from November through April, whereas 10-11 got too late of a storm with the first significant event being December 26th and then nothing after early February for most of us. No matter how epic it was, a 6-week winter can't be an A+. If this Nor'easter had been a success with 4""+, I would have raised the grade to an A...We also didn't have a real arctic outbreak this winter...sure, it was consistently cold from Thanksgiving through early February, and sure the cold was fairly brutal around 1/24, but it wasn't anything extreme. 850s never got below -20C compared to -25C in January 2009 and close to -30C in January 1994.

Grading is subjective. He had one of his snowiest winters ever and an unmatched snow pack...he obviously views that as more important than getting sloppy snow events in late February or March. For him, its an A/A+, for you its not. Neither view is wrong, its just how yo8u personally feel about winter.

On the flip side of the argument...you could argue that a year like '95-'96 is severely tainted in that the coldest period of winter by climo was a 2-3 week torch that melted all the snow from the previous 4 weeks. This year, the heart of climo winter was cold and snowy. Its all about personal preferences.

[mahk_webstah]

I'm guessing it would've been 11.1"

I know you measured 21.1 ... there was a very persistent 40DB sitting right over your house.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final Grade: A

Had I hit 1' in this event, it would have been A+.

[mahk_webstah]

How can you call this winter an A+?...You had absolutely nothing in February and March, and our snowiest period by climo is from early February to mid March. I got 8" on 2/21 and I still wouldn't give the winter an A+, I think an A- is about the highest I could go considering the last two months of the season were nothing. Dee-Jan was an epic combo, and that's the best time for us to have snow since we can establish a good snowpack with the low sun angle, I really appreciated having over a foot on the ground for almost all January and the constant cold that allowed local ponds/lakes to freeze over with even the Hudson River having some ice. It was pretty obscene how we got crushed with three massive Nor'easters in a month, great times. However, this winter, with 69.5" measured here, is still behind the true greats like 60-61 (90"), 95-96 (82"), 57-58 (80"), and 66-67 (70"). I also need a bit more consistency to call a winter an A+; 95-96 had snow in every month from November through April, whereas 10-11 got too late of a storm with the first significant event being December 26th and then nothing after early February for most of us. No matter how epic it was, a 6-week winter can't be an A+. If this Nor'easter had been a success with 4""+, I would have raised the grade to an A...We also didn't have a real arctic outbreak this winter...sure, it was consistently cold from Thanksgiving through early February, and sure the cold was fairly brutal around 1/24, but it wasn't anything extreme. 850s never got below -20C compared to -25C in January 2009 and close to -30C in January 1994.

Do you think you would have flipped to rain though if the Catskills had got crushed? The Catskills got good snow in 4/97 and 5/77, yet your area also did well. I feel like the storm would have been colder naturally if the mid-levels had tightened up and closed off near NYC/SW CT...that would have established more dynamic banding for everyone. One of the problems was that we weren't getting 1/8SM +SN, so a lot of the snow was just melting from the warm ground and not really accumulating on roads. I feel that this was a major problem especially in urban areas like Boston, where it just didn't snow heavily enough to really pile up in April.

I had 3.75" here in March, still terrible. This winter lowered its grade from A+ to A-/B+ by being an utter fail later on. I was having the season of my life until 2/21, and I would still say it was the best winter I've experienced, except for perhaps 95-96. But we got the -NAO pattern in March a bit too late for my area, and the individual storms on 3/24 and 4/1 both fell apart in a sense. Neither of them ever coalesced like the models showed.

If you were a teacher I sure wouldn't want to be your student. You had a top 5 winter over the last 50 years. That has to be an A+

[MaineJayhawk]

I know you measured 21.1 ... there was a very persistent 40DB sitting right over your house.

Dude, shoveling it? It feels like 21.1"

[nzucker]

As this came into 72-84 the very first nam runs showed significant issues with s/w interference. For a day or so the euro and goofus failed to see it and we had those huge solutions. Kind of predictable actually.

For Boston Pvd and Hartford there is a tarnish on what was a great season. 2/5 on was a whimper....again

NAM did an amazing job with this storm and 3/24, I was throwing it out because it seemed so off from the globals, but it was correct.

And yes, the winter is tainted because we haven't seen a solid March since 2007...for a really good one we've got to go back to 2001.

Man you are pissy lately.

I had 72 inches of snow on the beach tubes, GET REAL, you dont remember what it can be like around here because of the last decade of snow.

I had snow on the ground for over 50 days straight, depths were off the charts.......................................time for you to pull a tube.

I am not trying to be pissy...I didn't realize you had quite that much, that's impressive.

Top winters here in Westchester average a bit more snowfall, so we aren't close to a top season. It was a great winter but not historic for here....definitely comes in behind 47-48, 57-58, 60-61, and 95-96. We also didn't get that monster 20"+ event. What was your largest snowfall?

Grading is subjective. He had one of his snowiest winters ever and an unmatched snow pack...he obviously views that as more important than getting sloppy snow events in late February or March. For him, its an A/A+, for you its not. Neither view is wrong, its just how yo8u personally feel about winter.

On the flip side of the argument...you could argue that a year like '95-'96 is severely tainted in that the coldest period of winter by climo was a 2-3 week torch that melted all the snow from the previous 4 weeks. This year, the heart of climo winter was cold and snowy. Its all about personal preferences.

I would have given 95-96 an A, it did taint. I would say 60-61 and 57-58 were A+...the three 18" storms in 60-61 plus brutal cold plus 90"=A+. 57-58 also had brutal cold after a 16" Nor'easter in early Feb, and then two huge Nor'easters in March with 20" falling in a week here in late March=A+. This winter wasn't quite there. And we've had plenty of cold snowfalls in late February or March, they're not always sloppy. 3/2/09 was a cold event as the -10 line came through at the end. I am not saying he is wrong, it is subjective of course, but I think having three months of the winter be essentially nothing (most of December, almost all of Feb and March) definitely detracts, especially when we didn't have a true HECS like January 1996. As I said last night, I also like to see a well-formed monster Nor'easter affecting all of the East with a blizzard, and all the events were sort of localized this season. That was the appeal of 09-10 and 95-96, big events affecting large populations.

But Joe, sorry to be critical, I just think you are being an easy grader. Would have liked you as a college prof

[wxsniss]

I don't think the models did well with the storm at all; this was one of the biggest busts of the season if you look at what happened synoptically, not just snowfall totals in SNE. 72 hours out, the GFS and ECM agreed at 12z that the low would develop rapidly over the Mid-Atlantic with the mid-levels closing off near NJ/NYC; in reality, 700mb didn't close off completely until the storm was approaching Maine.

That's just an unreal error for a 3-day forecast, although I do find that guidance often rushes the development of the H85 and H7 levels, leaving many people stuck with just flurries when they expected heavier QPF, like March 2001. Models also didn't see how much the second shortwave was going to separate from the third; the original idea was that they would both amplify the trough and allow the low to bomb into the 970s outside of Cape Cod. In reality, the third piece of energy split over the Plains and tracked as a separate weak clipper over IL/WI/IN, depriving the main storm of much of its energy. We needed that third piece of energy to dive into the trough, but it didn't until the surface low had already passed the area.

Second, QPF was much too high....Boston only has reported .66" liquid, Worcester only .56" liquid; how many times did we see the models printing out 1-2" QPF for these areas? Despite the radar looking impressive, you must have noticed all the obs were -SN, we didn't see any reports of +SN despite the fact people were discussing this as a blizzard. Down here, the QPF error was even worse; 48 hours out, the Euro had my area receiving 1.5" QPF with NNJ receiving 1.8" QPF. White Plains airport, about 15 minutes from my house, has only recorded .18" liquid, Central Park .29" QPF. That's just showers, not a Nor'easter. I just find it amazing that in 2011, we have models forecasting stations to get 10X the amount of liquid they actually receive at 48 hours. This is a two day forecast, that's just frightening...just goes to show that these so-called "improvements" and "upgrades" have actually made forecasting more difficult since we're so apt to rely on models instead of common sense these days. They made the same mistake in 3/24, showing nearly 1" QPF here when we got .3", just weird.

2" is probably less than your area averages for April, and didn't you get shut-out for March? I'm not trying to take away from your enjoyment of the snow, and I'm not jealous at all since we had a great season here, believe me....but I just don't find a storm that's hyped up as a monster and then leaves everyone with 25% of their average snowfall for March/April to be that impressive. I also was under the impression we were going to see widespread reports of heavy snow, thundersnow, dangerous winds....it ended up being mostly flurries, showers, and a few hours of moderate snow. I think we all got sucked in by the model's surface maps and didn't study the H7 and H85 trend towards closing the lows off too late again. It seemed like there were too many bands on radar and none of them ever consolidated into a real CCB. Then the BL got warm as the sun rose and ended the snow in many places.

But do you think we're really done? GFS brings down some -10C 850s all the way to Pittsburgh after the big cutter on Tuesday; if we can get that low to bomb over Quebec and into the 50/50 position, pumping up heights over Greenland, then maybe the next shortwave can produce a good snowstorm especially for NNE. I'm fairly positive we're done down here, although NYC metro did have a major snowfall on 4/7/2003 with 8" on LI South Shore, and JFK also accumulated 1.8", along with my town, on 4/19/1983. Flakes also flew here on 5/10/1977. So we just have to keep watching and hope the next storm is actually bomb, especially if we are getting the exaggerated sudden stratospheric warming/final warming which may allow the NAO to turn more negative alongside the bombing 50/50 low.

Excellent post.

I think there's a tendency to minimize the model flaws because there's snow on the ground and it's April.

But the fact is the models were abominable.

You didn't mention one of the most egregious errors, the 18Z NAM's... literally within 6 hours of the event, one of our best high-res models, it put out a 1.5-2.5" nuke Worcester-Boston, a potent CCB and omega that certainly could have overcome marginal thermal fields. This is not just qpf-hugging... it closed off the 700mb low way too quickly, critical to that prodigious qpf. And we get literally 1/3 of that qpf. Huge difference in sensible weather, within 6 hours of it happening.

And let's not forget we all (pro's alike) posted yesterday afternoon that this would come down to a nowcast because the models within 6 hours were all over the place.

Perhaps it's something peculiar to this season (Typhoon Tip's "teleconnectors" or something smaller scale?), but it seems the models have been performing unusually badly compared to previous years... this week, Jan 27, and some other occasions when we were on the edge of our seats from short-term model confusion...

Thoughts?

[ORH_wxman]

Joe's area doesn't average much snow in March...probably something like 5" or so. December is actually a snowier month than March in BDR. And actually, so is Dobbs Ferry.

So a whiff on March snow isn't unusual for him. What is unusual is getting blasted with over 70" of snow and probably having over 2 feet of snow pack for a week or more.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice little weenie burst of snow

35.1\33

[CoastalWx]

I don't think the models did well with the storm at all; this was one of the biggest busts of the season if you look at what happened synoptically, not just snowfall totals in SNE. 72 hours out, the GFS and ECM agreed at 12z that the low would develop rapidly over the Mid-Atlantic with the mid-levels closing off near NJ/NYC; in reality, 700mb didn't close off completely until the storm was approaching Maine.

That's just an unreal error for a 3-day forecast, although I do find that guidance often rushes the development of the H85 and H7 levels, leaving many people stuck with just flurries when they expected heavier QPF, like March 2001. Models also didn't see how much the second shortwave was going to separate from the third; the original idea was that they would both amplify the trough and allow the low to bomb into the 970s outside of Cape Cod. In reality, the third piece of energy split over the Plains and tracked as a separate weak clipper over IL/WI/IN, depriving the main storm of much of its energy. We needed that third piece of energy to dive into the trough, but it didn't until the surface low had already passed the area.

Second, QPF was much too high....Boston only has reported .66" liquid, Worcester only .56" liquid; how many times did we see the models printing out 1-2" QPF for these areas? Despite the radar looking impressive, you must have noticed all the obs were -SN, we didn't see any reports of +SN despite the fact people were discussing this as a blizzard. Down here, the QPF error was even worse; 48 hours out, the Euro had my area receiving 1.5" QPF with NNJ receiving 1.8" QPF. White Plains airport, about 15 minutes from my house, has only recorded .18" liquid, Central Park .29" QPF. That's just showers, not a Nor'easter. I just find it amazing that in 2011, we have models forecasting stations to get 10X the amount of liquid they actually receive at 48 hours. This is a two day forecast, that's just frightening...just goes to show that these so-called "improvements" and "upgrades" have actually made forecasting more difficult since we're so apt to rely on models instead of common sense these days. They made the same mistake in 3/24, showing nearly 1" QPF here when we got .3", just weird.

2" is probably less than your area averages for April, and didn't you get shut-out for March? I'm not trying to take away from your enjoyment of the snow, and I'm not jealous at all since we had a great season here, believe me....but I just don't find a storm that's hyped up as a monster and then leaves everyone with 25% of their average snowfall for March/April to be that impressive. I also was under the impression we were going to see widespread reports of heavy snow, thundersnow, dangerous winds....it ended up being mostly flurries, showers, and a few hours of moderate snow. I think we all got sucked in by the model's surface maps and didn't study the H7 and H85 trend towards closing the lows off too late again. It seemed like there were too many bands on radar and none of them ever consolidated into a real CCB. Then the BL got warm as the sun rose and ended the snow in many places.

But do you think we're really done? GFS brings down some -10C 850s all the way to Pittsburgh after the big cutter on Tuesday; if we can get that low to bomb over Quebec and into the 50/50 position, pumping up heights over Greenland, then maybe the next shortwave can produce a good snowstorm especially for NNE. I'm fairly positive we're done down here, although NYC metro did have a major snowfall on 4/7/2003 with 8" on LI South Shore, and JFK also accumulated 1.8", along with my town, on 4/19/1983. Flakes also flew here on 5/10/1977. So we just have to keep watching and hope the next storm is actually bomb, especially if we are getting the exaggerated sudden stratospheric warming/final warming which may allow the NAO to turn more negative alongside the bombing 50/50 low.

I didn't say it was all that impressive, just that it was a cool little storm. I actually had an inch more than I thought, when I got up this morning. It must have really been snowing and sleeting pretty hard...enough to have the plows out anyways.

I'm not sure where you got the widespread heavy snow and thundersnow from. Other then some crazy runs back on Tuesday, this slowly started losing a little of the once epic appeal, but I don't recall those words being thrown around yesterday as if we were getting over a foot. The models trended away from closing off so that wasn't a surprise. What was a little up in the air was how and if this WCB arc of moisture would develop and move north. It eventually did, but everything was a little late in really coming together. They started to take the moisture and move east during the day yesterday. Radar did come together after looking crappy, but like we said...it was a little too late to dump uber amounts of snow, but enough for warning criteria.

As far as any more chances, I'm not going to hang my hat on them. Sure there might be a fluke, but would you really hold out hope?? Never say never in New England, but I know what the odds are.

[CoastalWx]

Nice little weenie burst of snow

35.1\33

Came through here too.

[CoastalWx]

How did the NAM do well? 12z runs had me over 2" QPF in BOS. I guess to the south coast peeps it did, but it got cracked out with QPF.

[forkyfork]

If you were a teacher I sure wouldn't want to be your student. You had a top 5 winter over the last 50 years. That has to be an A+

lol, you guys look like a bunch of fools... "grading" a winter is such petty nonsense

[snowman21]

Man you are pissy lately.

I had 72 inches of snow on the beach tubes, GET REAL, you dont remember what it can be like around here because of the last decade of snow.

I had snow on the ground for over 50 days straight, depths were off the charts.......................................time for you to pull a tube.

Yeah for an area that averages a little over two feet of snow and 26 days of snow cover, 72 inches is pretty good. Winters just aren't very long or harsh down this way, so an A or A+ grade is definitely warranted.