Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback


Mr Torchey

Recommended Posts

My mother was just driving back from Boston and called me to tell me its snowing steadily near the 140 and 290 intersection in Shrewsbury. That's about 700-750 feet in elevation. Precip is east of here so its doing nothing IMBY at the moment.

Confirmed. Light steady snow here right now, just picked up from flurries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That would be pretty close to an April '97 redux IMBY. It's 95% likely to be overdone as usual, but that is just an extreme snowstorm for CNE if it were to come to pass.

Even if you chopped a 1/3 rd off of the qpf, That still leaves some pretty hefty totals...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh' I still think i get 4-5" here more like 6"-8" up at the Moneypit.

Around here it that will be less of a disappointment then Boxing Day storm when we were expecting 15"-20" right up through go time.

Perhaps if current temps are indicative of p-type. 39.1/28 here, though I see 44.5/30 at the mesosite in Greenfield (though I think that one's downtown) and mid-40's all the way down the valley.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that warm tongue out this way is partially due to just crappy omega. Not enough vertical motion through the column to cool things.

It was going nuts here, but still warm. Maybe it's right..who knows.

Hopefully this bout of precip in eastern areas can slow the WAA a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i don't understand that advisory "sliver" on the map. Its almost like they wanted MHT in an advisory so they did that.

It's just a weird thing they do...and it's funny because GYX never plays along. They have warnings at the coast lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I rarely second guess BOX, but I think their 3-5'' advisory here is just way too low. I'd expect that more in the KGAY area.

GYX had adjusted the coastal totals here, The had advisorys and went to warnings and dbbl the qpf, There will be a sharp cuttoff somewhere and maybe your on that line, If true you could end up on the right side of it as well as the wrong one..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z nam ridiculous qpf lookin like Son of 97 (Jerry's name), only warmer on coastal plain and heavier snowfall totals shifted 50 miles northwest... far from over in eastern SNE, and will be interesting to see what these excessive qpf rates can do to critical thicknesses

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think what we want to see is this mixed precip shield start to develop more to the west and curl up from south to north. It might be that we have some sort of a two part system before the real sh*t gets going later on. A + sign would be for echoes to explode east of NJ and move north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX is still pretty bullish here...I'm probably siding with that, though I'm definitely a bit weary of omega issue should this end up too far east

MODELS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SPEED OF SFC LOW...SO BEST ISENTROPIC

FORCING AND DEFORMATION LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 06 TO 12Z

TIMEFRAME...WILL FOCUS MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL AND QPF FOR THIS TIME

PERIOD. THE INTERIOR...WHERE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL

COMBINE FOR A TIME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR

SNOWFALL RATES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER

HILLS. THIS GAVE TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES BY THE TIME IT IS

ALL SAID AND DONE AND LINED UP WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. THEREFORE NO

CHANGES TO CURRENT INTERIOR HEADLINES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perhaps if current temps are indicative of p-type. 39.1/28 here, though I see 44.5/30 at the mesosite in Greenfield (though I think that one's downtown) and mid-40's all the way down the valley.

Down in Northampton now, about 46. 39 when I left my house. Wind is really freshening even here on the valley floor. Snow on the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX is still pretty bullish here...I'm probably siding with that, though I'm definitely a bit weary of omega issue should this end up too far east

MODELS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SPEED OF SFC LOW...SO BEST ISENTROPIC

FORCING AND DEFORMATION LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 06 TO 12Z

TIMEFRAME...WILL FOCUS MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL AND QPF FOR THIS TIME

PERIOD. THE INTERIOR...WHERE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL

COMBINE FOR A TIME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR

SNOWFALL RATES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER

HILLS. THIS GAVE TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES BY THE TIME IT IS

ALL SAID AND DONE AND LINED UP WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. THEREFORE NO

CHANGES TO CURRENT INTERIOR HEADLINES.

Hopefully our amounts come close to verify. I'd be pretty happy, personally..lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4:41pm AFD... some shifts with cooler solution

Will add Essex County to advisories. With the slight east shift...expect that cool solution now favored here so accumulation more likely. Current snow totals yield about 5 inches...and with isentropic ascent just west of pivoting warm front and some close calls on deformation this is favored. After collaboration with gyx...who is issuing a watch adjacent to Essex...this will line up well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX is still pretty bullish here...I'm probably siding with that, though I'm definitely a bit weary of omega issue should this end up too far east

MODELS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SPEED OF SFC LOW...SO BEST ISENTROPIC

FORCING AND DEFORMATION LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 06 TO 12Z

TIMEFRAME...WILL FOCUS MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL AND QPF FOR THIS TIME

PERIOD. THE INTERIOR...WHERE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL

COMBINE FOR A TIME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR

SNOWFALL RATES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER

HILLS. THIS GAVE TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES BY THE TIME IT IS

ALL SAID AND DONE AND LINED UP WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. THEREFORE NO

CHANGES TO CURRENT INTERIOR HEADLINES.

Sorry late to the party here but:

18z NAM:

BOS//527353 03617 130909 36049994

06002939360 03211 100713 38019898

12034999465 01509 070616 40000097

18084989970 20108 980427 43010100

24100986347 00406 880225 42009901

30015977838 01113 893219 35009693

Maybe if you ask you receive: That is 2.33” total in a virtual isothermal sounding at 0C for BOS…. If that verifies even half you got a 12" of blue snow for BED-ORH and possibly as far W as FIT and everyone is underdone!

We'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...