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Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback


Mr Torchey

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Is part of this because we just don't have the contrast in airmasses for spring events?

Or is it mostly a result of the mid levels not developing enough until too late?

I'm amazed looking at tonight's Weather Channel forecast...they had 6-12" all the way back to Utica NY and then well into VT where there are currently 5-10dbz returns. I just don't know how you can make snowfall forecasts anymore, these models seem to be jumping around. When I first joined the board for Winter 08-09, it seemed that the last 48 hours before a storm was for fine-tuning; now the models jump hundreds of miles in this timeframe. It seems that since the GFS/ECM had their upgrades they have really been unable to handle East Coast cyclones despite decent 500mb verification scores.

6-12 in utica i mean cmon

i didnt see a single model suggest that yesterday, maybe im wrong on that i dont know

but how can a forecaster not take into account its april and you need to be near some good precip and dynamics to get that

in addition, 6-12 with a late developing low OFF the east coast, that tough to pull in winter in that location, nevermind april

thats just a BAD forecast.

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Yep it did. Nam took a lot of abuse as usual not being the snowiest solution but it was okay.

--

Looks like I may have even beat skimrg.

The traffic problems last night....both bridges had crashes at the same time. The road surface froze as the snow piled up making it tough to get up the inclines. Luckily it stopped as quickly as it started.

I was certainly pulling for the NAM to verify here and it looks like its in line so far to where it showeed some of the heaviest snows to be which was over my area..

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Well it looks like BOS will end the season with an even 81 inches. #7. Interesting that we didn't start getting 80+ years until after WW2. Of the top 7, I have been here for 5 of them only missing 1947-8 (was a toddler in NYC) and 1977-78 (lived in LA). We've had 5 80+ years in the past 20 winters. I have to assume changes in snow measurement is the reason in part.

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Hey, I'm just telling you how it works with general perception. I know what you are forecasting. Its fine, and you do not have to worry about it. But a larger range is more acceptable with high amounts than when the amounts are smaller. I can say 20-30" of accumulation in a HECS and look great, but if I said 0-10" in a smaller storm people would look at me like I'm a total idiot. Same range, right? But obviously you look way less credible in the latter case.

ive always found that interesting the ranges in the US

here in canada the acceptable ranges as forecast by Environment Canada

1-2inches

2-4 inches

4-6 inches

6-10inches

8-12 inches

10-14 inches

12-16inches

so forth

they never use wider ranges than that, though they are often too specific once accums get over 8 inches.

and in general their forecasts are wrong much more than NWS.:lol:

but the public perception here is that of the above. i think they would appreciate slightly wider but more accurate forecasts actually.

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I was certainly pulling for the NAM to verify here and it looks like its in line so far to where it showeed some of the heaviest snows to be which was over my area..

There's considerable melting happening here, which will lower accumulations. Took a stroll to the top of the parking garage and it was like getting slapped in the face with a wet sandy rag.

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There's considerable melting happening here, which will lower accumulations. Took a stroll to the top of the parking garage and it was like getting slapped in the face with a wet sandy rag.

I bet, Its pouring dendrites here right now, We will make the range i had, Hopefully the high end, We will see

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Hey, I'm just telling you how it works with general perception. I know what you are forecasting. Its fine, and you do not have to worry about it. But a larger range is more acceptable with high amounts than when the amounts are smaller. I can say 20-30" of accumulation in a HECS and look great, but if I said 0-10" in a smaller storm people would look at me like I'm a total idiot. Same range, right? But obviously you look way less credible in the latter case.

In terms of public perception, Matt Noyes made a great point at the conference. He stopped using ranges in his maps and instead just one general number. Because most of the time the public only sees the top of the range anyway

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Well it looks like BOS will end the season with an even 81 inches. #7. Interesting that we didn't start getting 80+ years until after WW2. Of the top 7, I have been here for 5 of them only missing 1947-8 (was a toddler in NYC) and 1977-78 (lived in LA). We've had 5 80+ years in the past 20 winters. I have to assume changes in snow measurement is the reason in part.

I think the way people measure snow now is a huge part. Not that it's being done wrong now, just that almost all reports back then were otg at end totals.

Skimrg but up there it's only you and fozzy bear that get to witness it.

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wow...

O/T

Went to bed last night trying to remember the last time I ever skied Berkshire East and honestly can't remember skiing there. So my apologies if I offended anyone.

I have skied Catamount and Jimney as well as the other bigger MA mountains in the 1000' drop (some of which have closed) and Jimney sticks out as the best. Not that any of them really are great at all.

On Google Earth, Catamount straddles NY/MA and it looks like the more challenging terrain is actually in NY, so Catamount doesn't really count as a MA mountain. Berkshire East looks amazing in terms of vertical, so I'll have to check them out, but as I suspected, that mountain is far from the total vertical drop they claim (1180'), it's more like 880'.

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