ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I knew you were going to say that, but is 3-8" really a big difference from 4-8"....I mean, yea....I should have narrowed the range and blew it like BOX. 1-2' is pretty wide...don't care how heavy it is. This was a tough call so it was warranted. Hey, I'm just telling you how it works with general perception. I know what you are forecasting. Its fine, and you do not have to worry about it. But a larger range is more acceptable with high amounts than when the amounts are smaller. I can say 20-30" of accumulation in a HECS and look great, but if I said 0-10" in a smaller storm people would look at me like I'm a total idiot. Same range, right? But obviously you look way less credible in the latter case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Hey, I'm just telling you how it works with general perception. I know what you are forecasting. Its fine, and you do not have to worry about it. But a larger range is more acceptable with high amounts than when the amounts are smaller. I can say 20-30" of accumulation in a HECS and look great, but if I said 0-10" in a smaller storm people would look at me like I'm a total idiot. Same range, right? But obviously you look way less credible in the latter case. Gimme a break. Gross exaggeration. You doubled it. Whatever.....I had the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Looks like 3-4" on the grass, about 1" on pavement. Was 32.6 for the whole snow so it looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Looks like 3-4" on the grass, about 1" on pavement. Was 32.6 for the whole snow so it looks nice. Same thing, here....elevation was a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Go to the areas that got missed and knock yourself out in their forum Well I think we are allowed to comment on the general synoptic evolution of the storm in this thread. It does look as if the higher totals expected in many parts of SNE are going to bust: elevations of NW CT are outside the banding, elevations of NE CT mixed, Boston has been dealing with BL issues for much of the storm, etc. So there's a relatively small area of the storm that's going as expected, but overall it hasn't been impressive. I think we need to consider carefully in the future when we are dealing with multiple shortwaves and the lack of a consolidated phase; we may also have to give the NAM more creedence in the medium range as it seems to be handling these synoptic situations a little better. I don't think any of these comments are inappropriate. And honestly why get into so many arguments on a weather board? Like who the f--- cares, honestly...no reason to get pissed over such trivial matters. It seems emotions run way higher in these boards than they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'll end up w about 6", I think. 8-9" for Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Well then why is everyone giving me a hard time? I think your response is fine...but I'm sure you as a met are a bit disappointed with the evolution of the storm too. We all like a bomb. I just don't understand why I get excoriated for discussing the weather on here while people are lauded for making the most vile and stupid jokes on a public forum....seems like it should be the other way around. Having a good discussion about how the track of the mid-levels affects 850mb temps in CT or why this storm fell apart shouldn't offend anybody, and I don't think I came across as particularly offensive in either exchange. It's like everyone is out to get me all of a sudden. And you all seem to think I have this huge bias towards my backyard, when in fact you guys are much worse. I just like to see a beautiful storm, wherever it hits, whether that be SNE, California, NYC. What's wrong with being disappointed because the storm is a mess? I happen to really enjoy using the word excoriated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'll end up w about 6", I think. 8-9" for Will. I may not get that much...but for Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 This is a nice event, but it wasn't the omega bomb necessary to compensate for a marginal BL and really croak the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Anyway...quick post and then I have to do my AM exercises and get ready for early morning rounds. Snowing still, maybe 2 inches now with colder temps and snow on the road vs wet when I went to bed. Of the late season snows I've seen (this late at least), this fits the bill. Would have been a pretty good dump in February and it's anomalous for now but not too far out of the ordinary ala 97. IOW...a spring snow. Will not shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Anyway...quick post and then I have to do my AM exercises and get ready for early morning rounds. Snowing still, maybe 2 inches now with colder temps and snow on the road vs wet when I went to bed. Of the late season snows I've seen (this late at least), this fits the bill. Would have been a pretty good dump in February and it's anomalous for now but not too far out of the ordinary ala 97. IOW...a spring snow. Will not shovel. This. Latah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I happen to really enjoy using the word excoriated. "Excoriated" and "censured" are two of my favorite synonyms for "criticized"...I was a sports journalist for 4 years for a local paper, so I developed a pretty decent knowledge of alternatives to common words. I guess it comes in handy sometimes. This is a nice event, but it wasn't the omega bomb necessary to compensate for a marginal BL and really croak the lowlands. Yes, exactly, this is what I am saying. I'm sure you guys are having a good time but the storm isn't like a massive bomb or anything. You could tell from the beginning looking at radar that it was going to be very spotty for heavy accumulations, just too many random bands with no consolidated precip shield. Good thing it was April 1st and not January 1st, or I would have been fuming. Going from 1.75" QPF to .2" QPF isn't exactly fun, and I think a lot of folks are dealing with this sentiment. I think you and I agree that this wasn't all it was cracked up to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 you may still get your 8-10. it appears to be settling in for an extended period of 1+ inches /hr here. This is a nice event, but it wasn't the omega bomb necessary to compensate for a marginal BL and really croak the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 This is a nice event, but it wasn't the omega bomb necessary to compensate for a marginal BL and really croak the lowlands. Watching the mesoanalysis all night we never really got much in the way of good mid-level frotogenesis to develop...right there there is some decent frotogenesis at 850mb and where that is set up seems to go along quite well with where the heaviest snow rates are occurring. 850-700mb frotogenesis was pathetic throughout this entire thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 2.7" and intensity on the increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Watching the mesoanalysis all night we never really got much in the way of good mid-level frotogenesis to develop...right there there is some decent frotogenesis at 850mb and where that is set up seems to go along quite well with where the heaviest snow rates are occurring. 850-700mb frotogenesis was pathetic throughout this entire thing. Is part of this because we just don't have the contrast in airmasses for spring events? Or is it mostly a result of the mid levels not developing enough until too late? I'm amazed looking at tonight's Weather Channel forecast...they had 6-12" all the way back to Utica NY and then well into VT where there are currently 5-10dbz returns. I just don't know how you can make snowfall forecasts anymore, these models seem to be jumping around. When I first joined the board for Winter 08-09, it seemed that the last 48 hours before a storm was for fine-tuning; now the models jump hundreds of miles in this timeframe. It seems that since the GFS/ECM had their upgrades they have really been unable to handle East Coast cyclones despite decent 500mb verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Radar looks good but what's with the obs being all light snow? Radar fooling? Pouring so hard here it woke me up...or it could have been the zapping sound of a toaster being thrown into the tub to my wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Radar looks good but what's with the obs being all light snow? Radar fooling? Pouring so hard here it woke me up...or it could have been the zapping sound of a toaster being thrown into the tub to my wsw. I think the radar echoes look heavier because of melting snowflakes in the warm lower levels....most people are just seeing light snows, BOS reporting a visibility of 1.25 miles, not very impressive. Definitely bright banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Out for another measurement...must be pushing 6" by now. Snow increasing again intensity...looks like a good batch about to come through but could go spotty after that around 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Just back from early AM quick dog walk. Snowing relatively hard and easily accumulating now. Another 1-2 hours before daylight puts a kibosh on accumulations with this one. RUC was atrocious in that I should have been raining for the past 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 On April 1st, most of us don't care how it happens...but we just want to get some snow. It's happening in the interior right now. Many of us didn;t like the wound up bomb that gave Binghamton 19" of snow because it tainted us...as well as the solutions that gave Mt. Pocono 20". Most are glad that Mt. Pocono is getting flurries while just W of BOS its ripping snow because that was the way to get it to work out. Ekster just put thunder snow in his forecast. It didn't work out for those western areas, but its fine for New England. Man you guys are dedicated. Down here that phrase would go more like, "On April 1st, most of us don't care how it happens...but we just want to get sunshine and 70º." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Is part of this because we just don't have the contrast in airmasses for spring events? Or is it mostly a result of the mid levels not developing enough until too late? I'm amazed looking at tonight's Weather Channel forecast...they had 6-12" all the way back to Utica NY and then well into VT where there are currently 5-10dbz returns. I just don't know how you can make snowfall forecasts anymore, these models seem to be jumping around. When I first joined the board for Winter 08-09, it seemed that the last 48 hours before a storm was for fine-tuning; now the models jump hundreds of miles in this timeframe. It seems that since the GFS/ECM had their upgrades they have really been unable to handle East Coast cyclones despite decent 500mb verification scores. I'm not really sure to be honest, perhaps it was mainly due to the fact the mid levels started developing too late, it really doesn't look like there is good mid level circulation going on, something weak at 700mb and crap at 500mb. I think the NAM did a pretty solid job with this event so far...the NAM (with the exception for maybe a run or two) never really had a really well developed system with great lift (high omega). Seemed like the GFS/Euro/Ukie all had a bit more organized storm system...I know for here the GFS was going nuts with the lift. Dynamics really don't appear too impressive either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Man you guys are dedicated. Down here that phrase would go more like, "On April 1st, most of us don't care how it happens...but we just want to get sunshine and 70º." We don;t usually get 70 in spring that early...sometimes, but its the exception rather than the rule...so I'll take heavy pasting snow over 41F and drizzle any day of the week. We have an entire summer/early Fall worth of 75F and sunny to deal with, so I treasure the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I think the radar echoes look heavier because of melting snowflakes in the warm lower levels....most people are just seeing light snows, BOS reporting a visibility of 1.25 miles, not very impressive. Definitely bright banding. Weird....it's pouring here. Snow line must be coming se again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 dumping still not sure how much has fallen ...slept for 2 hours...not goin to work....roads are disaster. back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 A little over 2 inches here. I'm satisfied..Looks like another 1-3 today Did my area get dryslotted overnight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Never mind ..I see it was sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Ripping pretty good out there now RDs are snowcovered which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Been snowing pretty good up there via skycams...best estimate is about 1.5 to 2" Bmax I wonder if BDL managed to squeeze out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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