40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 ORH Cty is a tiny portion of the area originally forecast to be affected by this Nor'easter. Sure it's great if you happen to live there, but I like to see a powerful, well organized Nor'easter with high winds and heavy precipitation across a large part of the Northeast. I was really hoping this storm would go in the Kocin book as one of the great late season events like April 1997, April 1982, and May 1977...but we're clearly not looking at anything of that caliber. It's not so much about my backyard since I knew it would be tough here, but I was excited about chasing a big Nor'easter and cancelled the trip since the storm looked pathetic. I don't think anyone can disagree with my main point that this event has ended up well below expectations....none of the stations in SNE seem to be reporting anything but -SN. The radar actually looks pretty decent there but Worcester, Bedford, and Lawrence are all just reporting a light snow. It's a NE thread...no one cares. God, grow up and realize that you don't know EVERYTHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm happy w my 3-8" call....looks perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I wonder if BDL managed to squeeze out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 A bit over 5" here at 900+ feet in N ORH city near the Holden line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Sucks for the Catskills and Poconos. But since we don't live there in this thread...nobody really cares. Might seem harsh, but that is the truth. I don't think anyone here will care that Mt. Pocono got screwed if they get 7" of snow. Haha now there's a place we can all agree on that we really don't care about (in terms of meteorological discussion). This is a solid storm for you guys down there... I was never down on this one, always fun to watch rapid developers whether ya win or lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I wonder if BDL managed to squeeze out anything. Who cares, Mt Ponoco got screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm happy w my 3-8" call....looks perfect. my 4-17" call looks perfect too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 It's a NE thread...no one cares. God, grow up and realize that you don't know EVERYTHING When did I say I knew everything? I'm just pointing out this storm doesn't really look like it's coming together as a classic Nor'easter. And I think everyone agrees. The banding just seems to be a bit spotty and moving on too much of an ENE trajectory. And by the way, why is Logan reporting fog and mist? Is it snowing there or raining? And actually, some of us just like the beauty of a meteorologically perfect system, regardless of whether it's snowing a lot or not. I can appreciate a storm like 2/5/10 even though it screwed my backyard mightily, because that's just gorgeous synoptics and so well linked to the teleconnections of the 09-10 winter. I guess we all have our different passions, but mine is mostly about a system realizing its max potential...we had a lot with this one given the gorgeous +PNA and Hudson Bay block, but it doesn't seem like everything is going to come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 ALB threw in the towel at 4am... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --IT SEEMS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TAUGHT US ANOTHER LESSON AS THIS NOR`EASTER WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH ITS IMPACTS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY. MODEL PERFORMANCE WAS LESS THAN IDEAL LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...BUT IN THE END...OUR FORECAST MAY NOT HAVE LEAD UP TO EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL BE SURE TO EVALUATE THIS EVENT IN THE LESSONS LEARNED AND POST CASE STUDY WORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Who cares, Mt Ponoco got screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 my 4-17" call looks perfect too! What is wrong w that....I see the NWS throw out 5-10" and 6-12" all the time. This was a very tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 What is wrong w that....I see the NWS throw out 5-10" and 6-12" all the time. This was a very tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 FACT not opinion. He can make fun of me, but I was btr than BOX, which was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 When did I say I knew everything? I'm just pointing out this storm doesn't really look like it's coming together as a classic Nor'easter. And I think everyone agrees. The banding just seems to be a bit spotty and moving on too much of an ENE trajectory. And by the way, why is Logan reporting fog and mist? Is it snowing there or raining? And actually, some of us just like the beauty of a meteorologically perfect system, regardless of whether it's snowing a lot or not. I can appreciate a storm like 2/5/10 even though it screwed my backyard mightily, because that's just gorgeous synoptics and so well linked to the teleconnections of the 09-10 winter. I guess we all have our different passions, but mine is mostly about a system realizing its max potential...we had a lot with this one given the gorgeous +PNA and Hudson Bay block, but it doesn't seem like everything is going to come into play. On April 1st, most of us don't care how it happens...but we just want to get some snow. It's happening in the interior right now. Many of us didn;t like the wound up bomb that gave Binghamton 19" of snow because it tainted us...as well as the solutions that gave Mt. Pocono 20". Most are glad that Mt. Pocono is getting flurries while just W of BOS its ripping snow because that was the way to get it to work out. Ekster just put thunder snow in his forecast. It didn't work out for those western areas, but its fine for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 FACT not opinion. He can make fun of me, but I was btr than BOX, which was a joke. I don't think he was making fun of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'll take it, but something is missing from this....my BL is marginal, but the kings like 4\97 and 12\92 still got it done. This is lacking omega or something because I am accumulating @ like a .5"\hr rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I don't think he was making fun of you. It was certainly a sarcastic jab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I don't think he was making fun of you. He was making fun of his range....3-8 is never used in forecasting. Its too wide a range. Granted 4-8 is used a lot, but nobody ever uses 3-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 He was making fun of his range....3-8 is never used in forecasting. Its too wide a range. Granted 4-8 is used a lot, but nobody ever uses 3-8. Tough...I did. Like 6-12" is much btr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Back at all snow in Boston. Finally starting to stick to paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 It was certainly a sarcastic jab. He was making fun of his range....3-8 is never used in forecasting. Its too wide a range. Granted 4-8 is used a lot, but nobody ever uses 3-8. 6-12 gets used fairly often and that's a little bigger than 3-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Tough...I did. Like 6-12" is much btr. When the amounts get smaller, so does the range. That's just the way it works in forecasting. Not saying you can't say what you did, but it generally leads to less credibility with the public when the range is wide with smaller amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 My rule has always been the 1:2 rule. The first number can be as low as half of the second number; it can obviously be greater than half. 1-2, 2-4, 3-6, etc. A coating-inch breaks the rule, but you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 So far nothing from Kevin, usually I see home on facebook around this time...I wonder if he dropped the toaster in the tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 When the amounts get smaller, so does the range. That's just the way it works in forecasting. Not saying you can't say what you did, but it generally leads to less credibility with the public when the range is wide with smaller amounts. I knew you were going to say that, but is 3-8" really a big difference from 4-8"....I mean, yea....I should have narrowed the range and blew it like BOX. 1-2' is pretty wide...don't care how heavy it is. This was a tough call so it was warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 So far nothing from Kevin, usually I see home on facebook around this time...I wonder if he dropped the toaster in the tub. This storm was pretty much this for Kevin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 On April 1st, most of us don't care how it happens...but we just want to get some snow. It's happening in the interior right now. Many of us didn;t like the wound up bomb that gave Binghamton 19" of snow because it tainted us...as well as the solutions that gave Mt. Pocono 20". Most are glad that Mt. Pocono is getting flurries while just W of BOS its ripping snow because that was the way to get it to work out. Ekster just put thunder snow in his forecast. It didn't work out for those western areas, but its fine for New England. Well then why is everyone giving me a hard time? I think your response is fine...but I'm sure you as a met are a bit disappointed with the evolution of the storm too. We all like a bomb. I just don't understand why I get excoriated for discussing the weather on here while people are lauded for making the most vile and stupid jokes on a public forum....seems like it should be the other way around. Having a good discussion about how the track of the mid-levels affects 850mb temps in CT or why this storm fell apart shouldn't offend anybody, and I don't think I came across as particularly offensive in either exchange. It's like everyone is out to get me all of a sudden. And you all seem to think I have this huge bias towards my backyard, when in fact you guys are much worse. I just like to see a beautiful storm, wherever it hits, whether that be SNE, California, NYC. What's wrong with being disappointed because the storm is a mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 That is never going to get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Back to snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Well then why is everyone giving me a hard time? I think your response is fine...but I'm sure you as a met are a bit disappointed with the evolution of the storm too. We all like a bomb. I just don't understand why I get excoriated for discussing the weather on here while people are lauded for making the most vile and stupid jokes on a public forum....seems like it should be the other way around. Having a good discussion about how the track of the mid-levels affects 850mb temps in CT or why this storm fell apart shouldn't offend anybody, and I don't think I came across as particularly offensive in either exchange. It's like everyone is out to get me all of a sudden. And you all seem to think I have this huge bias towards my backyard, when in fact you guys are much worse. I just like to see a beautiful storm, wherever it hits, whether that be SNE, California, NYC. What's wrong with being disappointed because the storm is a mess? Go to the areas that got missed and knock yourself out in their forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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