Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback

[nzucker]

I couldn't care less about VT...they had their fun in late Feb and March. They will always beat me for the most part in every winter, but I don't have any sympathy for some place in VT that has 24" of snowpack that whiffed on this storm while they were accumulating most of it when I was 34F and rain.

Storm is going just as planned, here....btr....glad others got porked...there loss is my gain.

Not really though....the Nor'easter would have been much more fun if it was truly explosive with 60mph winds and heavy snow. Most people, even near ORH, have just been reporting moderate snow mixing with sleet on and off, not that exciting. This was being billed as a big-ticket storm and is going to end up with little wind potential, a small zone of significant snowfall, and much less QPF than originally advertised. I doubt Logan even comes in with 6"....and every other area like CT, SE NY, Poconos, VT is getting absolutely screwed. For me, it's all about tracking a monster storm, or chasing a monster storm, and I think we all know this Nor'easter didn't meet those expectations. Radar has been a mess all night with random banding all over the place, never a consolidated precipitation shield like we saw in 1/12 or 1/27. It's just discouraging because we all knew we had the chance for an April 1997 or April 1982 where we saw widespread 12-24" amounts, and now we're looking at a few areas in the hills picking up 8" or something. This was basically a non storm...I am also incredibly pissed because my temps aren't that bad, just like 3/24, and yet I haven't seen more than 5 minutes of 20dbz returns all night. It's amazing we have the airmass to snow in late March/April down here, and we're wasting it despite the perfect PNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll prob end up w about 6-7"

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not really though....the Nor'easter would have been much more fun if it was truly explosive with 60mph winds and heavy snow. Most people, even near ORH, have just been reporting moderate snow mixing with sleet on and off, not that exciting. This was being billed as a big-ticket storm and is going to end up with little wind potential, a small zone of significant snowfall, and much less QPF than originally advertised. I doubt Logan even comes in with 6"....and every other area like CT, SE NY, Poconos, VT is getting absolutely screwed. For me, it's all about tracking a monster storm, or chasing a monster storm, and I think we all know this Nor'easter didn't meet those expectations. Radar has been a mess all night with random banding all over the place, never a consolidated precipitation shield like we saw in 1/12 or 1/27. It's just discouraging because we all knew we had the chance for an April 1997 or April 1982 where we saw widespread 12-24" amounts, and now we're looking at a few areas in the hills picking up 8" or something. This was basically a non storm...I am also incredibly pissed because my temps aren't that bad, just like 3/24, and yet I haven't seen more than 5 minutes of 20dbz returns all night. It's amazing we have the airmass to snow in late March/April down here, and we're wasting it despite the perfect PNA.

Socks, I don't give a fu** what would have had happened to my west...I would have rained.

This FTW

[Collinsville]

0.8 here. Wet partially melted snow, no sleet. Had massive flakes a half hour ago.

Scratch that last report. Went out to snowboard and there is 1.2". Radar looks lame for this area.

[powderfreak]

You guys will probably get a 12" event above 1800 feet while we are sunny and 60F later this month...its the way it works. Occasionally I can compete with BTV int he torch valley but for the most part, I'm not going to expect a lot more snow than them, they usually fluff their way to 10-20" more than my area, but I won't feel bad if I'm getting a snowstorm while they are cirrus clouds. We have to have these storms otherwise we'd average 30" per year and not 70".

Yeah, its just the way it works. And even if we don't see anything sizable event, climo tends to even out in the end. This happens a lot during the course of the winter... I mean January we mostly watched from the outside. But you sort of get used to it because there are a lot of little snowfalls inbetween (clippers, orographics). It wouldnt surprise me if you guys got more synoptic snow a lot of the winters, while this area sort of makes up the difference by a lot of light snowfalls.

[nzucker]

Socks, I don't give a fu** what would have had happened to my west...I would have been rained.

I don't think so, you'd be fine if the storm bombed out earlier and just gave everyone heavy QPF. You had a good antecedent airmass with very low dewpoints, and the storm was always going to track south of you. I am just upset we missed the potential for a monster Nor'easter with ripping winds, dramatic changes from rain to snow in the major cities, beautiful banding. Looks like it was the last opportunity of the season to have some excitement, and it is turning out to be a run of the mill event, barely even that. I guess it's time for spring or a trip to Mammoth.

[ORH_wxman]

Not really though....the Nor'easter would have been much more fun if it was truly explosive with 60mph winds and heavy snow. Most people, even near ORH, have just been reporting moderate snow mixing with sleet on and off, not that exciting. This was being billed as a big-ticket storm and is going to end up with little wind potential, a small zone of significant snowfall, and much less QPF than originally advertised. I doubt Logan even comes in with 6"....and every other area like CT, SE NY, Poconos, VT is getting absolutely screwed. For me, it's all about tracking a monster storm, or chasing a monster storm, and I think we all know this Nor'easter didn't meet those expectations. Radar has been a mess all night with random banding all over the place, never a consolidated precipitation shield like we saw in 1/12 or 1/27. It's just discouraging because we all knew we had the chance for an April 1997 or April 1982 where we saw widespread 12-24" amounts, and now we're looking at a few areas in the hills picking up 8" or something. This was basically a non storm...I am also incredibly pissed because my temps aren't that bad, just like 3/24, and yet I haven't seen more than 5 minutes of 20dbz returns all night. It's amazing we have the airmass to snow in late March/April down here, and we're wasting it despite the perfect PNA.

I don't care if other people are getting screwed....I only care about my BY....its April. I'm ripping snow right now. I couldn't care less if the Poconos get screwed or the Catskills.

If it was mid-winter, I might have some sympathy. This is an awesome event for some of us. It sucks it crapped out for thos ein the Poconos and Catskills....but oh well, better luck next December. This is probably it for the season...so I'm in greedy mode as should everyone else be.

[bboughton]

Back over to mostly snow in Boston.

Socks, I don't give a fu** what would have had happened to my west...I would have rained.

This FTW

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait to see what Kevin got...it really couldn't have been much at all.

[MainePhotog]

All systems go here in Southern/Central Maine. ECMWF and HRRR are very close and absolutely pound between 12z and 18z...this should be one of the best storms (if not the best storm) of the season here barring some epic collapse like the 2007 New York Mets. We are adding thunder to the grids/zones on the coastal plain for today.

I got up early hoping for good news. This statement made my day!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think so, you'd be fine if the storm bombed out earlier and just gave everyone heavy QPF. You had a good antecedent airmass with very low dewpoints, and the storm was always going to track south of you. I am just upset we missed the potential for a monster Nor'easter with ripping winds, dramatic changes from rain to snow in the major cities, beautiful banding. Looks like it was the last opportunity of the season to have some excitement, and it is turning out to be a run of the mill event, barely even that. I guess it's time for spring or a trip to Mammoth.

It was also hugging the coast when it was doing that.

[simpsonsbuff]

Why is Zucker now known as Socks?

[MaineJayhawk]

2.0" of paste

31.1F

[40/70 Benchmark]

Why is Zucker now known as Socks?

He wears tube socks instead of ankle socks

[nzucker]

Yeah, its just the way it works. And even if we don't see anything sizable event, climo tends to even out in the end. This happens a lot during the course of the winter... I mean January we mostly watched from the outside. But you sort of get used to it because there are a lot of little snowfalls inbetween (clippers, orographics). It wouldnt surprise me if you guys got more synoptic snow a lot of the winters, while this area sort of makes up the difference by a lot of light snowfalls.

Yeah but I'd be seriously pissed about this storm, you were in a great spot to get nailed by a legit Nor'easter and add to your awesome snowpack, would have been nice to have 20" of powder in early April on top of that 6' base. Even Massachusetts isn't going to do that well...there's a few more hours of moderate precip, most people are mixing, and then the dry air to the south moves in. I just don't see how any of these big totals are going to be achieved, and I think Albany and Upton should drop all the warnings and advisories....even Albany is mixing with rain at 36/30, and I thought they were set to get pounded in this storm. I was thinking we'd see 8-12" from the Poconos to ALB to BTV to BOS...won't even come close. Springtime folks unless you really want to head north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah but I'd be seriously pissed about this storm, you were in a great spot to get nailed by a legit Nor'easter and add to your awesome snowpack, would have been nice to have 20" of powder in early April on top of that 6' base. Even Massachusetts isn't going to do that well...there's a few more hours of moderate precip, most people are mixing, and then the dry air to the south moves in. I just don't see how any of these big totals are going to be achieved, and I think Albany and Upton should drop all the warnings and advisories....even Albany is mixing with rain at 36/30, and I thought they were set to get pounded in this storm. I was thinking we'd see 8-12" from the Poconos to ALB to BTV to BOS...won't even come close. Springtime folks unless you really want to head north.

Everyone N of the pike is all snow.

[weatherwiz]

It's almost hard to believe the Red Sox open up in 11.5 hours

Thank God they aren't at home.

[nzucker]

I don't care if other people are getting screwed....I only care about my BY....its April. I'm ripping snow right now. I couldn't care less if the Poconos get screwed or the Catskills.

If it was mid-winter, I might have some sympathy. This is an awesome event for some of us. It sucks it crapped out for thos ein the Poconos and Catskills....but oh well, better luck next December. This is probably it for the season...so I'm in greedy mode as should everyone else be.

But you're not going to get that much Will, you won't break a foot I don't think. And for me, a Nor'easter is not just about how much snow I get but the overall intensity/coverage of the storm, the high winds, the deteriorating conditions. I think we learned our lesson this time not to believe in a strong storm when we have too many shortwaves in the flow. Let's be honest, the NAM basically nailed this event as much as we criticized it for being stupid. I just hate seeing such a disorganized and meager radar presentation from a storm that had so much promise, and it's not even breezy here. It's sort of like how I felt about the Snowicane...I got more snow than 1/96, but overall the feeling wasn't as exciting because it wasn't a crippling Nor'easter for the entire coastline.

Do you think we can still get one more good snowfall for the Poconos and Catskills, and maybe even some flakes down here? What is the pattern looking like?

[weatherwiz]

Really coming down now. A bit over 5" here.

Do you have an exact measurement?

[bboughton]

The NAM had Boston at a foot of snow at one point on Tuesday, sooooooooo..... nailed it might be a strong word.

But you're not going to get that much Will, you won't break a foot I don't think. And for me, a Nor'easter is not just about how much snow I get but the overall intensity/coverage of the storm, the high winds, the deteriorating conditions. I think we learned our lesson this time not to believe in a strong storm when we have too many shortwaves in the flow. Let's be honest, the NAM basically nailed this event as much as we criticized it for being stupid. I just hate seeing such a disorganized and meager radar presentation from a storm that had so much promise, and it's not even breezy here. It's sort of like how I felt about the Snowicane...I got more snow than 1/96, but overall the feeling wasn't as exciting because it wasn't a crippling Nor'easter for the entire coastline.

Do you think we can still get one more good snowfall for the Poconos and Catskills, and maybe even some flakes down here? What is the pattern looking like?

[ORH_wxman]

Everyone N of the pike is all snow.

Yeah for some us this is a good event...sucks for those that got screwed. Powderfreak will get another event....he doesn't have to worry anyway.

[ORH_wxman]

Absolutely ripping....1 inch in the last 50 minutes.

Gotta be over 5" now.

[Ice Warrior commander]

back to 60/40 here.. winds increasing.

nzucker.. your post is not fully valid. This is a Very decent event for many. area's in ORH county and points N and NE are getting smoked.

Sorry your BY lost out. However, a decent event for many in this area.

60 snow/ 40 PL. Moderate. Wind increasing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

But you're not going to get that much Will, you won't break a foot I don't think. And for me, a Nor'easter is not just about how much snow I get but the overall intensity/coverage of the storm, the high winds, the deteriorating conditions. I think we learned our lesson this time not to believe in a strong storm when we have too many shortwaves in the flow. Let's be honest, the NAM basically nailed this event as much as we criticized it for being stupid. I just hate seeing such a disorganized and meager radar presentation from a storm that had so much promise, and it's not even breezy here. It's sort of like how I felt about the Snowicane...I got more snow than 1/96, but overall the feeling wasn't as exciting because it wasn't a crippling Nor'easter for the entire coastline.

Do you think we can still get one more good snowfall for the Poconos and Catskills, and maybe even some flakes down here? What is the pattern looking like?

I don't give 2 $hits about the NESIS scale.....only MBY.

[nzucker]

The NAM had Boston at a foot of snow at one point on Tuesday, sooooooooo..... nailed it might be a strong word.

NAM always goes overboard on the QPF/dynamic bands, but it seemed to have the right idea that there was never really a fresh system developing that would bring an intense CCB to the major cities; it was more like a sheared out continuation of the first wave. NAM was consistently the farthest east and weakest with the event, and that definitely ended up being the case. The GFS and ECM had over 1.5" of QPF in my area, and I may not even see .25"...they were both much too aggressive with the development of the mid-levels and associated CCB presentation. I think the NAM caught onto the fact that the first shortwave washed out the baroclinic zone, and that the third shortwave would never become a major player and really consolidate the storm. It certainly made some mistakes with QPF placement but had the overall right idea on this being mostly a non-event outside some elevated zones in SNE. I've been very impressed with the NAM lately as it nailed the 3/24 storm and did well here; the GFS, on the contrary, has been awful, and it was the first one to try to intensify this low excessively.

[weatherwiz]

5.1"

Thanks!

[ORH_wxman]

NAM always goes overboard on the QPF/dynamic bands, but it seemed to have the right idea that there was never really a fresh system developing that would bring an intense CCB to the major cities; it was more like a sheared out continuation of the first wave. NAM was consistently the farthest east and weakest with the event, and that definitely ended up being the case. The GFS and ECM had over 1.5" of QPF in my area, and I may not even see .25"...they were both much too aggressive with the development of the mid-levels and associated CCB presentation. I think the NAM caught onto the fact that the first shortwave washed out the baroclinic zone, and that the third shortwave would never become a major player and really consolidate the storm. It certainly made some mistakes with QPF placement but had the overall right idea on this being mostly a non-event outside some elevated zones in SNE. I've been very impressed with the NAM lately as it nailed the 3/24 storm and did well here; the GFS, on the contrary, has been awful, and it was the first one to try to intensify this low excessively.

Sucks for the Catskills and Poconos. But since we don't live there in this thread...nobody really cares. Might seem harsh, but that is the truth. I don't think anyone here will care that Mt. Pocono got screwed if they get 7" of snow.

[ORH_wxman]

Union CT has 2.6" of snow right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3.5"

I'm crashing....BL is a real impediment in this area, as it's obviously slowing accumulations.

I'll be lucky to see 6" and ever measure 5" of depth.

31.7\31

[nzucker]

nzucker.. your post is not fully valid. This is a Very decent event for many. area's in ORH county and points N and NE are getting smoked.

Sorry your BY lost out. However, a decent event for many in this area.

ORH Cty is a tiny portion of the area originally forecast to be affected by this Nor'easter. Sure it's great if you happen to live there, but I like to see a powerful, well organized Nor'easter with high winds and heavy precipitation across a large part of the Northeast. I was really hoping this storm would go in the Kocin book as one of the great late season events like April 1997, April 1982, and May 1977...but we're clearly not looking at anything of that caliber. It's not so much about my backyard since I knew it would be tough here, but I was excited about chasing a big Nor'easter and cancelled the trip since the storm looked pathetic. I don't think anyone can disagree with my main point that this event has ended up well below expectations....none of the stations in SNE seem to be reporting anything but -SN. The radar actually looks pretty decent there but Worcester, Bedford, and Lawrence are all just reporting a light snow.