wxsniss Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I would say it's a little confusion added to the mix. Not necessarily negativity. Thanks Scott. Was starting to feel like I was on ignore because I've never met you guys / not involved in the bickering. The toaster talk that ended thread IV was definitely premature. I think we've been riding the Euro / Euro ensembles hard (it has been the most consistent model until 12z), so when it drops an egg it hurts. I hate to bring this down to nowcast, but have yet to see a consensus model solution. Definitely confusing among the worst modeled storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Like many on here, I've lost a lot of enthusiasm for this event. It looks especially putrid out here in the western zones as the upper level energy doesn't appear to capture the storm in time for a big dump. I was worried about the large number of waves in the pattern several days ago when examining this whole synoptic setup. Such short wave lengths between the shortwaves coming through the long wave trough is not usually a good recipe for a classic snow bomb in western New England. Areas to the E from N ORH county into interior SE NH and interior SW ME look better to get a warning level event. I still think it will snow around here, but barring a last minute meteorological Hail Mary pass, it will not be a big deal. My call is 3-5 inches for the Berkshire Valley, 5-7 inches for the hilltowns above 1.5K. The CT River valley will probably be 1-3 inches of slop with perhaps a bit more going N toward VT. These numbers may, in fact, be a bit optimistic. Definitely not the 12"+ blue snow bomb that it could've been. Guess we should just take whatever bone Mother Nature throws us as it's April 1st tomorrow. Winter left during the first week of Feb. and never really came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well might as well hope for the best...there's no turning back now. Can't say I completely understand what it's doing. Seems a little too convective loving. From a weenie stanpoint, I am concerned, but that superior resoloution of the EURO maybe finding that convection a bit more provocative than it should. I am sure the idea has some merit, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Are the seals farting again???? From a weenie stanpoint, I am concerned, but that superior resoloution of the EURO maybe finding that convection a bit more provocative than it should. I am sure the idea has some merit, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Like many on here, I've lost a lot of enthusiasm for this event. It looks especially putrid out here in the western zones as the upper level energy doesn't appear to capture the storm in time for a big dump. I was worried about the large number of waves in the pattern several days ago when examining this whole synoptic setup. Such short wave lengths between the shortwaves coming through the long wave trough is not usually a good recipe for a classic snow bomb in western New England. Areas to the E from N ORH county into interior SE NH and interior SW ME look better to get a warning level event. I still think it will snow around here, but barring a last minute meteorological Hail Mary pass, it will not be a big deal. My call is 3-5 inches for the Berkshire Valley, 5-7 inches for the hilltowns above 1.5K. The CT River valley will probably be 1-3 inches of slop with perhaps a bit more going N toward VT. These numbers may, in fact, be a bit optimistic. Definitely not the 12"+ blue snow bomb that it could've been. Guess we should just take whatever bone Mother Nature throws us as it's April 1st tomorrow. Winter left during the first week of Feb. and never really came back. If I get .5" of qpf here, I will view it as a victory of sorts as I think that's generous. 39.8/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks Scott. Was starting to feel like I was on ignore because I've never met you guys / not involved in the bickering. The toaster talk that ended thread IV was definitely premature. I think we've been riding the Euro / Euro ensembles hard (it has been the most consistent model until 12z), so when it drops an egg it hurts. I hate to bring this down to nowcast, but have yet to see a consensus model solution. Definitely confusing among the worst modeled storm this season. There is going to be some surprises good and bad with this one, Was not much talk of another storm similar to this one that the euro shows next weds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Are the seals farting again???? CT needs to hope that they have heavy heavy rea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm back on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kev, what's the call for KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There is going to be some surprises good and bad with this one, Was not much talk of another storm similar to this one that the euro shows next weds.... GYX just placed the rest of the zones under a winter storm warning (coastal zones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 BOX doubles down, albeit with lower amounts: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 312 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 ...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... MAZ002>004-008-009-026-NHZ011-015-010315- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0010.110401T0000Z-110402T0600Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AYER...JAFFREY... KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 312 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PLAN ON EXTRA TRAVEL TIME. THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES OR POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kev, what's the call for KTOL I'll go with 4-7..I will say..I don't think you get more than me out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GYX just placed the rest of the zones under a winter storm warning (coastal zones). AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 so, lets say i were considering chasing the heaviest snow (in MA) any one have any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll go with 4-7..I will say..I don't think you get more than me out of this I'm pretty confident that I will....unless it's very putrid w so little omega, that you need elevation to eek out 2" of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GYX, 8-12 for our area now. Lowered a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll go with 4-7..I will say..I don't think you get more than me out of this CTrain > 2 feet, 1-2 feet, 6-12, 5-9, now 4-7<CTrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The RUC is trying to give me like 3-5" just this evening, lol. Its been doing that all day long... no idea what its doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 From a weenie stanpoint, I am concerned, but that superior resoloution of the EURO maybe finding that convection a bit more provocative than it should. I am sure the idea has some merit, though. Models are models...they'll always lay an egg at some point. It's never good to live and die by them, but when they all sort of exhibit a trend..it's a little concerning. We'll just have to see what's up. Hopefully the euro is too far east and not allowing the QPF to be distributed wide enough. The euro certainly has laid an egg inside 24 hrs..in fact I think the GFS has done fairly well IIRC this year during that time. Of course, it doesn't mean it has to apply in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 still need some water to make snow... I hope you get blasted, but .... I don't know... Who knows. My spidey sense would be going off whether I had heard a forecast for snow or not. Looks like the quintessential pre snow sky. Damp East wind. I'd bet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 so, lets say i were considering chasing the heaviest snow (in MA) any one have any suggestions? Either Ashburnham if it can get going a bit quicker, or Haverhill if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GYX just placed the rest of the zones under a winter storm warning (coastal zones). Thought they would after the 12z runs trended a little further SE and colder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GYX, 8-12 for our area now. Lowered a little bit * ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Models are models...they'll always lay an egg at some point. It's never good to live and die by them, but when they all sort of exhibit a trend..it's a little concerning. We'll just have to see what's up. Hopefully the euro is too far east and not allowing the QPF to be distributed wide enough. The euro certainly has laid an egg inside 24 hrs..in fact I think the GFS has done fairly well IIRC this year during that time. Of course, it doesn't mean it has to apply in this situation. Yeah I agree. It will b einteresting to see how the 18z runs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 CTRain I was using sarcasm when I said no one saw it coming. It has looked fairly obvious, for most of us, that this is not going to be anything major for several days. Most of the weenies are beyond the 3rd and 4th stages of grief at this point, time to accept what it is and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Either Ashburnham if it can get going a bit quicker, or Haverhill if not. Yeah, I'd still think northern ORH county over towards northern Essex County would be a good starting point... depends on just how much elevation matters in this one. Of course, its going to help but if it comes down hard enough at the right time of day it may not matter all that much. Its not like we are talking 3,000 feet of elevational differences... still, the CP in northern MA may do better than high terrain down south of the Pike if it comes down hard enough. There's still some sneaky warmth at 800mb south of the Pike on a lot of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 * ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES. 1-3 tonight, 7-11 tomorrow. Let's rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 CTRain I was using sarcasm when I said no one saw it coming. It has looked fairly obvious, for most of us, that this is not going to be anything major for several days. Most of the weenies are beyond the 3rd and 4th stages of grief at this point, time to accept what it is and move on. lol I gotcha. Yeah for the last 48 hours things have gone downhill each set of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Either Ashburnham if it can get going a bit quicker, or Haverhill if not. originally I was thinking about heading to the higher terrain north of Will...but now it seems as though this storm is less organized and further east...maybe i should just hike to the top of Blue Hills and have a weenie campout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 CTRain I was using sarcasm when I said no one saw it coming. It has looked fairly obvious, for most of us, that this is not going to be anything major for several days. Most of the weenies are beyond the 3rd and 4th stages of grief at this point, time to accept what it is and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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