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Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback


Mr Torchey

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The precip is coming down at a good rain on the coastal plain so it's not a huge shock. Back here in HFD where precip has been extremely light we are still all rain.

I guess I'm surprised at the intensity of the precip this early on. Don't think the models hit it this hard until a bit later tonight.

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If you look at the past few hours of observations at ORH and surrounding sites, it seems unlikely to be the result of dry air advection. If anything, moisture content has been increasing slightly.

Similar temp drops have been occurring throughout the region, without a corresponding increase in DP temp, just as precipitation moves into the area. Hence thermodynamic processes seem more likely the cause.

But you are advecting drier air into the system. Will is right too.

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Everything now covering over aside of the road. 1/2 or slightly less in snow.

Ryan the in house stuff.... I think ncep preferring the euro outright is telling. Mod snow at 7pm on the water....may be indicative of an east shift but we will see

The 21z WRF I saw was just abysmal but I think it's off. I mean the radar to my west actually looks half decent with things filling in over NJ. So who knows. In this area I'm still not all that excited but I think it matters most for places NW of me.

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Boy Andy must be dead in his brown leather chair in the wood panelled den..with empty bottles of pills strewn across the floor after the east shift today

I'm gonna stick with the 4-7 since it's a range, but it might be the lower end...I feel safer with that..only because I'm not sure how much of the heavier echoes will make it back. If radar just explodes then obviously the higher amounts might happen.

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The 21z WRF I saw was just abysmal but I think it's off. I mean the radar to my west actually looks half decent with things filling in over NJ. So who knows. In this area I'm still not all that excited but I think it matters most for places NW of me.

Now this is impressive late season snow here right now. Probably 1/4, no joke.

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Radar really starting to look better to the southwest over NJ and further down...hopefully the Euro pulled one of its famous gag jobs right before the storm starts. (Feb '06, 12/9/05, a couple that stick out)

I'm still concerned the RUC is not that keen on part two but its been slowly bringing that stuff west in the last couple runs.

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