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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Decent chance the Yanks home opener tomorrow is snowed/rained out.

Anyone remember 1997 against KC when it snowed the entire game down there,, but didn't stick

We know what happened that night/next day up here :snowman:

Are you chucking?

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re: JB's forecast

I don't get why so many mets are calling for such high accumulations across interior NYS and even portions of extreme western New England. I'm very skeptical about heavy precip being thrown back so far west.

I'm thinking the same thing here... these things do usually tend to end up slightly east in the end (ie. not bombing as quick as forecast) and the precipitation shield always seems to develop a bit too late for the far west. It would be a concern in this situation for the WNW.

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I'm thinking the same thing here... these things do usually tend to end up slightly east in the end (ie. not bombing as quick as forecast) and the precipitation shield always seems to develop a bit too late for the far west. It would be a concern in this situation for the WNW.

I get that the deform will probably affect western NE and possibly SW NY, but I don't see how western NY will get 6+, let alone 12+...just seems reaching, given guidance.

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Decent chance the Yanks home opener tomorrow is snowed/rained out.

The forecast is for mid-40s tomorrow, so probably rained out. Perhaps it stops long enough to get the game in. Glad I didn't bother getting tickets just to sit in the rain, though I suspect they'll be quick on the trigger as far as canceling.

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If this first wave is a little stronger, wouldn't it push the bz a little further se for round two.?

Well I thought about what this wave would do. I mean if you look at satellite and the earlier convection, it makes you wonder about the juicy QPF progs on the model, but the s/w in charge should jump start the advection processes again. Something to watch, but I think we'll be fine.

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Does anyone recall what modelled qpf was for the April 97 storm? Were models printing out 3-4 inches of qpf?

No. They were probably spitting out 1-2 inches because you never saw any forecasts of over 12" of snow until the event was already well under way.

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re: JB's forecast

I don't get why so many mets are calling for such high accumulations across interior NYS and even portions of extreme western New England. I'm very skeptical about heavy precip being thrown back so far west.

Me neither.....the SYR TV mets are on the ball IMO, calling for MAYBE a couple inches by Fri. afternoon....we've seen this movie before out this way!! :arrowhead:

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Gotta laugh at all the posters congregating in this thread. In Mid March the party was down to us stragglers, here we are near April and the house is rockin. ReV KeV spinning some Drey again, Pete cranking up the grill for some bear meat ribs, Jerry banging some hottie in the back room and me well it's Shot Hour!

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