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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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In light of seeing the EURO, my final calls are:

Me: 3-8"

Will: 3-8"

Bos: 2-4"

Kev: 2-4"

There is such a huge bust potential. Euro is still cold at 925mb, but yet mild at 850. I went 4-7 for the Rev this morning and figured that range would be ok, but it might be to the lower end..and then-some. I don't know...watch radar explode south of sne after 00z, and then Messenger is going nuts with the RUC..lol. If the next several hours look like crap on the models..then we send it in I guess.

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I was going 8-12 for N ORH cty...but probably more like 4-8 for YBY.

Euro still probably gives those towns 6" or so, so I'm not changing much until there is really good reason to. If Euro is a bit over pessimistic, then the forecast is probably fine.

Yeah 4-8 imby looked good until the euro.

What do you think the euro shows verbatim for me? From what was posted I'm guessing just light snow that doesn't accumulate well? All I heard was "ouch" and "dear lord" with not much actual analysis.laugh.gif

I certainly don't envy your job on this one.

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Yeah 4-8 imby looked good until the euro.

What do you think the euro shows verbatim for me? From what was posted I'm guessing just light snow that doesn't accumulate well? All I heard was "ouch" and "dear lord" with not much actual analysis.laugh.gif

I certainly don't envy your job on this one.

Euro probably gives you 2 or 3 inches of slop and maybe 4-5 for me.

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There is such a huge bust potential. Euro is still cold at 925mb, but yet mild at 850. I went 4-7 for the Rev this morning and figured that range would be ok, but it might be to the lower end..and then-some. I don't know...watch radar explode south of sne after 00z, and then Messenger is going nuts with the RUC..lol. If the next several hours look like crap on the models..then we send it in I guess.

The EURO should be incorportated, but it's not far fetched to believe that this can deepen a hair more quickly than the EURO implies, which happens to be the slowest soloution on the table....in turn, that would increase omega and assuage the H85 concerns....especially for this area.....further sw is more pressed.

This is why I hedged heavier for my area, than Kev's, pre EURO....writing was on the wall.

Don't forget that 1\27 event, in which the EURO pulled the plug @ the 12th hour, but was exagerrated in doing so....it's a good model, but it is merely a model and is fallible

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