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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Agree on the Euro. But a bit concerning when the UKIE, RGEM, NAM And GFS all went the same way. Oh yeah, and the RUC LOL

F the euro...no seriously F the euro....it has been crap plenty of times this year. this COULD be one of them. it wouldn't suprise me....either way it crapped with this system. the king has been retired for a few months now.

this is obviously not as bullish as earlier but stay the course......remember we BEGAN the year with a Christmas miracle were gonna end it with a April fools one as well. COT members throwing in the towel...pete really?

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F the euro...no seriously F the euro....it has been crap plenty of times this year. this COULD be one of them. it wouldn't suprise me....either way it crapped with this system. the king has been retired for a few months now.

this is obviously not as bullish as earlier but stay the course......remember we BEGAN the year with a Christmas miracle were gonna end it with a April fools one as well. COT members throwing in the towel...pete really?

I have to say the Euro run was a bit weird...its definitely less bullish than all the other 12z runs. It reminds me of 1/27 when it was insisting on a big hit, then at the last second it finally said it would whiff...only to be wrong and we got hammered that night. This may not be a repeat, but there's some reason to think it might be a bit pessimistic here.

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This is like a NYC thread

Nah the mods cleaned house over there. The days of the accu-weather board style weenie forecasts running rampant have long been over. If 1-2 feet were constantly forecast there'd be a lot of 5-posts handed out in that thread. This region is pretty loosely moderated compared to the others.

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heavy heavy UCONN win on Saturday!!!

I hope socks has figured out the forecast for the Bronx and Westchester. It was a challenging one.

thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I'm going conservative for areas west and southern after such a good model as the euro showing a disaster there. my confidence is now very high for Maine though.....

I was thinking about not posting this and waiting till after 18z but there is no problem with coming back tonight and making changes to a fourth map if the EURO ends up being on an island.

2mhe9t1.jpg

I'd take 3-6" and run. I just want it to snow a little bit. I don't want people to actually think it was an April Fools joke.

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Nah the mods cleaned house over there. The days of the accu-weather board style weenie forecasts running rampant have long been over. If 1-2 feet were constantly forecast there'd be a lot of 5-posts handed out in that thread. This region is pretty loosely moderated compared to the others.

somebody started ASOS thread...go check it out.

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Why? We havent had a bust this bad since the heavy snow warning bust of 2009.

No meltdowns have been necessary since then.

I think you are thinking Jan 08. This one would be worse if we were in the heart of winter....it was a low probability event despite a couple of days of good model runs...

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Will what was your forecast for here before the euro?

It will be interesting to see if the 18 gfs goes to sh*t or still gives me like 6-8" like 12z.

I was going 8-12 for N ORH cty...but probably more like 4-8 for YBY.

Euro still probably gives those towns 6" or so, so I'm not changing much until there is really good reason to. If Euro is a bit over pessimistic, then the forecast is probably fine.

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I was going 8-12 for N ORH cty...but probably more like 4-8 for YBY.

Euro still probably gives those towns 6" or so, so I'm not changing much until there is really good reason to. If Euro is a bit over pessimistic, then the forecast is probably fine.

I'm ashamed of everyone's model hugging behavior.

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Why? NYC hasnt had a bust this bad since the heavy snow warning bust of 2009.

No meltdowns have been necessary since then.

I think you are thinking Jan 08. This one would be worse if we were in the heart of winter....it was a low probability event despite a couple of days of good model runs...

Last February I was predicted for 8-14" and got 3"...I'm not sure this bust will be that bad....we'll see though.

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I'm going conservative for areas west and southern after such a good model as the euro showing a disaster there. my confidence is now very high for Maine though.....

I was thinking about not posting this and waiting till after 18z but there is no problem with coming back tonight and making changes to a fourth map if the EURO ends up being on an island.

2mhe9t1.jpg

Nice map Jay....... ;)

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I think you are thinking Jan 08. This one would be worse if we were in the heart of winter....it was a low probability event despite a couple of days of good model runs...

Thats it. Jan.2008.

NYC has had no other reasons for a meltdown. We havent had a storm crap out like this, only 6-12 hours before an event.

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